Performance and Diagnostic Evaluation of Ozone Predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study

Abstract

A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O₃) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O₃ was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O₃ on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O₃ concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O₃ very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within [H11006]20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O₃ within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites.The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O₃ vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64 –77% of observed NO₂ photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O₃/nitrogen oxide (NO_x) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NO_x-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O₃ production efficiency values (inferred from O₃-CO correlation) are close to the observations.     

Ozone induced leaf loss and decreased leaf production of European Holly (Ilex aquifolium L.) over multiple seasons

European Holly (Ilex aquifolium L.) was used to study the impact of one short (28 day) ozone fumigation episode on leaf production, leaf loss and stomatal conductance (g(s)), in order to explore potential longer term effects over 3 growing seasons. Young I. aquifolium plants received an episode of either charcoal-filtered air or charcoal-filtered air with 70 nl l(-1) O(3) added for 7 h d(-1) over a 28 day period from June 15th 1996, then placed into ambient environment, Stoke-on-Trent, U.K. Data were collected per leaf cohort over the next three growing seasons. Ozone exposure significantly increased leaf loss and stomatal conductance and reduced leaf production over all subsequent seasons. Impact of the initial ozone stress was still detected in leaves that had no direct experimental ozone exposure. This study has shown the potential of ozone to introduce long-term phenological perturbations into ecosystems by influencing productivity over a number of seasons.     

Congener-specific egg contribution of polychlorinated biphenyls to nestlings in two passerine species

Quantifying polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) residues in nestlings of avian species is a common method for assessing trophic transfer and risk at PCB-contaminated sites. The proportion of nestling PCB mass due to maternal transfer is often accounted for by subtracting total PCB mass in eggs from nestlings. However, variation in physicochemical properties and metabolism among congeners may lead to differences between egg contribution based on total PCBs and dioxin-like congeners. We examined congener-specific variation in contribution of PCBs from eggs to nestlings in tree swallows and European starlings. Egg contribution of total PCB mass was 14.3 and 16.2%, respectively, whereas contribution based on dioxin-like congeners was 14.8 and 13.6%, respectively. These data suggest that using total PCB mass in eggs to adjust estimates of PCB accumulation in nestlings may not reflect patterns for dioxin-like congeners, potentially over or under-estimating the risk of toxicity of PCBs.     

Geomechanical analysis of the Naylor Field,Otway Basin,Australia: Implications for CO2 injection and storage

A geomechanical assessment of the Naylor Field, Otway Basin, Australia has been undertaken to investigate the possible geomechanical effects of CO₂ injection and storage. The study aims to evaluate the geomechanical behaviour of the caprock/reservoir system and to estimate the risk of fault reactivation. The stress regime in the onshore Victorian Otway Basin is inferred to be strike–slip if the maximum horizontal stress is calculated using frictional limits and DITF (drilling induced tensile fracture) occurrence, or normal if maximum horizontal stress is based on analysis of dipole sonic log data. The NW–SE maximum horizontal stress orientation (142°N) determined from a resistivity image log is broadly consistent with previous estimates and confirms a NW–SE maximum horizontal stress orientation for the Otway Basin.An analytical geomechanical solution is used to describe stress changes in the subsurface of the Naylor Field. The computed reservoir stress path for the Naylor Field is then incorporated into fault reactivation analysis to estimate the minimum pore pressure increase required to cause fault reactivation (ΔP_p).The highest reactivation propensity (for critically-oriented faults) ranges from an estimated pore pressure increase (ΔP_p) of 1 MPa to 15.7 MPa (estimated pore pressure of 18.5–33.2 MPa) depending on assumptions made about maximum horizontal stress magnitude, fault strength, reservoir stress path and Biot's coefficient. The critical pore pressure changes for known faults at Naylor Field range from an estimated pore pressure increase (ΔP_p) of 2 MPa to 17 MPa (estimated pore pressure of 19.5–34.5 MPa).     

The release of nanosilver from consumer products used in the home

Nanosilver has become one of the most widely used nanomaterials in consumer products because of its antimicrobial properties. Public concern over the potential adverse effects of nanosilver's environmental release has prompted discussion of federal regulation. In this paper, we assess several classes of consumer products for their silver content and potential to release nanosilver into water, air, or soil. Silver was quantified in a shirt, a medical mask and cloth, toothpaste, shampoo, detergent, a towel, a toy teddy bear, and two humidifiers. Silver concentrations ranged from 1.4 to 270,000 microg Ag g product(-1). Products were washed in 500 mL of tap water to assess the potential release of silver into aqueous environmental matrices (wastewater, surface water, saliva, etc.). Silver was released in quantities up to 45 microg Ag g product(-1), and size fractions were both larger and smaller than 100 nm. Scanning electron microscopy confirmed the presence of nanoparticle silver in most products as well as in the wash water samples. Four products were subjected to a toxicity characterization leaching procedure to assess the release of silver in a landfill. The medical cloth released an amount of silver comparable to the toxicity characterization limit. This paper presents methodologies that can be used to quantify and characterize silver and other nanomaterials in consumer products. The quantities of silver in consumer products can in turn be used to estimate real-world human and environmental exposure levels.     

Review of recent advances in research on the toxicity,detection, occurrence and fate of cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes in the environment

The fate and behavior of cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes (cVMS) octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4), decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5), and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6) in the environment were reviewed. We evaluated their usage data and patterns, physico-chemical properties, toxicology, partitioning and degradation, methods of detection, and concentrations. The use of cVMS as an intermediate in the formation of silicone polymers, personal care and household products has resulted in their widespread environmental exposure; they have been detected in biogas, air, water, soil, biosolid, sediment, and biota samples. Modeled and experimental results suggest that cVMS may be subject to long-range atmospheric transport, but have low potential to contaminate the Arctic. For D4 and D5, there was no evidence of trophic biomagnification in aquatic food webs, while some aquatic organisms demonstrated a high degree of bioconcentration and bioaccumulation. High concentrations of cVMS observed in indoor air and biosolids resulted from point sources. Concentrations of cVMS in water, sediment, and soil were all below their no-observed-effect-concentrations.     

Perfluorinated compounds in water, sediment, soil and biota from estuarine and coastal areas of Korea

Soil, sediment, water, and biota collected from the western coast of Korea were analyzed to determine occurrence and sources of perfluorinated compounds (PFCs). PFCs were significantly concentrations of PFCs were measured in some water and biological samples, while concentrations of PFCs in soils and sediments were relatively low. The most widely detected compound was found to be perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), with a maximum concentration in water of 450 ng/L and in fish of 612 ng/g, dw. PFOS concentrations in water and biota were both less than those thought to cause toxicity. However, in both cases concentrations were within a factor of 10 of the toxicity threshold concentration. Concentrations of PFCs were significantly greater downstream than those upstream on the same river, suggesting point sources. Overall, the detection of PFCs at relatively great concentrations in various environmental matrixes from this region of Korea suggests that further studies characterizing PFCs and their potential risk to both humans and wildlife are needed.