Rapid assessment of management options for promoting stock rebuilding in data-poor species under climate change

The development of species recovery plans requires considering likely outcomes of different management interventions, but the complicating effects of climate change are rarely evaluated. We examined how qualitative network models (QNMs) can be deployed to support decision making when data, time, and funding limitations restrict use of more demanding quantitative methods. We used QNMs to evaluate management interventions intended to promote the rebuilding of a collapsed stock of blue king crab (Paralithodes platypus) (BKC) around the Pribilof Islands (eastern Bering Sea) to determine how their potential efficacy may change under climate change. Based on stakeholder input and a literature review, we constructed a QNM that described the life cycle of BKC, key ecological interactions, potential climate-change impacts, relative interaction strengths, and uncertainty in terms of interaction strengths and link presence. We performed sensitivity analyses to identify key sources of prediction uncertainty. Under a scenario of no climate change, predicted increases in BKC were reliable only when stock enhancement was implemented in a BKC hatchery-program scenario. However, when climate change was accounted for, the intervention could not counteract its adverse impacts, which had an overall negative effect on BKC. The remaining management scenarios related to changes in fishing effort on BKC predators. For those scenarios, BKC outcomes were unreliable, but climate change further decreased the probability of observing recovery. Including information on relative interaction strengths increased the likelihood of predicting positive outcomes for BKC approximately 5–50% under the management scenarios. The largest gains in prediction precision will be made by reducing uncertainty associated with ecological interactions between adult BKC and red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus). Qualitative network models are useful options when data are limited, but they remain underutilized in conservation.     

Walking routes to school in new urban and suburban neighborhoods: An environmental walkability analysis of blocks and routes

We assessed environmental and perceptual correlates of walking and walkability for fifth graders from three communities attending two schools: A new urban/LEED-ND pilot community, mixed, and standard suburban community. Irvine-Minnesota Inventory (IMI) walkability audits showed that new urban blocks provided more traffic safety, pleasurability, crime safety, density, and diversity. New urban routes offered greater traffic safety, accessibility, pleasurability, crime safety, and diversity, but suburban routes had greater housing density, net of controls (parental education, rooms in the home, home ownership, parent preference for child to walk to school). Parents and children perceived new urban routes to be more walkable and children walked more when they lived on more walkable routes. The suburban hierarchical street design exposed children to varied traffic safety conditions by funneling their walks from cul-de-sacs to arterials. The new urban routes to a centrally located school passed by pleasant open spaces, suggesting how community organization can create better walking conditions.     

Assessing the potential of yield improvements, through process scrap reduction, for energy and CO2 abatement in the steel and aluminium sectors

Targets to cut 2050 CO₂ emissions in the steel and aluminium sectors by 50%, whilst demand is expected to double, cannot be met by energy efficiency measures alone, so options that reduce total demand for liquid metal production must also be considered. Such reductions could occur through reduced demand for final goods (for instance by life extension), reduced demand for material use in each product (for instance by lightweight design) or reduced demand for material to make existing products. The last option, improving the yield of manufacturing processes from liquid metal to final product, is attractive in being invisible to the final customer, but has had little attention to date. Accordingly this paper aims to provide an estimate of the potential to make existing products with less liquid metal production.Yield ratios have been measured for five case study products, through a series of detailed factory visits, along each supply chain. The results of these studies, presented on graphs of cumulative energy against yield, demonstrate how the embodied energy in final products may be up to 15 times greater than the energy required to make liquid metal, due to yield losses. A top-down evaluation of the global flows of steel and aluminium showed that 26% of liquid steel and 41% of liquid aluminium produced does not make it into final products, but is diverted as process scrap and recycled. Reducing scrap substitutes production by recycling and could reduce total energy use by 17% and 6% and total CO₂ emissions by 16% and 7% for the steel and aluminium industries respectively, using forming and fabrication energy values from the case studies. The abatement potential of process scrap elimination is similar in magnitude to worldwide implementation of best available standards of energy efficiency and demonstrates how decreasing the recycled content may sometimes result in emission reductions.Evidence from the case studies suggests that whilst most companies are aware of their own yield ratios, few, if any, are fully aware of cumulative losses along their whole supply chain. Addressing yield losses requires this awareness to motivate collaborative approaches to improvement.     

Intraspecific trait variants determine the nature of interspecific interactions in a habitat-forming species

Although the study of ecological interactions often takes into account functional variation between species, intraspecific variation is commonly ignored. Here, we investigate the importance of an intraspecific polymorphism in shaping interspecific interactions in a habitat-building species. Colonies of the social spider Anelosimus studiosus provide habitat for dozens of arthropod species, and colony members exhibit markedly polymorphic behavioral temperaments (BT): "aggressive" or "docile." We manipulated the phenotypic compositions of colonies (100% aggressive, 50% aggressive and 50% docile, 100% docile) and measured the nature and magnitude of interactions between A. studiosus and two heterospecific web associates, Larinioides cornutus and Agelenopsis emertoni. We found that BT composition significantly affected the outcome of interspecific interactions, changing the relationship between A. studiosus and its web associates from an ammensalism (where A. studiosus experiences reduced fecundity and survival) to a commensalism or mutualism. Our study successfully illustrates the potential of BTs to impact whole community dynamics, and conversely, for community structure to influence the maintenance of BTs.     

Volatile chemicals from leaf litter are associated with invasiveness of a neotropical weed in Asia

Some invasive plant species appear to strongly suppress neighbors in their nonnative ranges but much less so in their native range. We found that in the field in its native range in Mexico, the presence of Ageratina adenophora, an aggressive Neotropical invader, was correlated with higher plant species richness than found in surrounding plant communities where this species was absent, suggesting facilitation. However, in two nonnative ranges, China and India, A. adenophora canopies were correlated with much lower species richness than the surrounding communities, suggesting inhibition. Volatile organic compound (VOC) signals may contribute to this striking biogeographical difference and the invasive success of A. adenophora. In controlled experiments volatiles from A. adenophora litter caused higher mortality of species native to India and China, but not of species native to Mexico. The effects of A. adenophora VOCs on seedling germination and growth did not differ between species from the native range and species from the nonnative ranges of the invader. Litter from A. adenophora plants from nonnative populations also produced VOCs that differed quantitatively in the concentrations of some chemicals than litter from native populations, but there were no chemicals unique to one region. Biogeographic differences in the concentrations of some volatile compounds between ranges suggest that A. adenophora may be experiencing selection on biochemical composition in its nonnative ranges.     

Woodlot management and livelihoods in a tropical conservation landscape

In biodiversity hotspots, there is often tension between human needs and conservation, exacerbated when protected areas prevent access to natural resources. Forest-dependent people may compensate for exclusion by managing unprotected forests or cultivating planted woodlots. Outside Bwindi Impenetrable National Park in Uganda, household wood product needs are high and population growth puts pressure on the environment. We investigated the role of privately and collectively managed woodlots in provisioning wood products and supporting local livelihoods. We found that households relied heavily on woodlots for daily needs and as resources during time of need. We also found that locally relevant social institutions, called stretcher groups, played a role in the management of woodlots, providing shared community resources. Privately and collectively owned woodlots support local livelihoods and wood product needs in the region. Long-term management of forests in Uganda should consider the value of woodlots and the mechanisms required to support them.     

Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI): A new systematic HAZID tool

The availability of a hazard identification methodology based on early warnings is a crucial factor in the identification of emerging risks. In the present study, a specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was conceived as a development of bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide a comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, joined to a process of continuous improvement of the results of the assessment. DyPASI is a method for the continuous systematization of information from early signals of risk related to past events. The technique provides a support to the identification and assessment of atypical potential accident scenarios related to the substances, the equipment and the site considered, capturing available early warnings or risk notions. DyPASI features as a tool to support emerging risk management process, having the potentiality to contribute to an integrated approach aimed at breaking “vicious circles”, helping to trigger a gradual process of identification and assimilation of previously unrecognised atypical scenarios.     

Vegetation Response to Western Juniper Slash Treatments

The expansion of piñon–juniper woodlands the past 100 years in the western United States has resulted in large scale efforts to kill trees and recover sagebrush steppe rangelands. It is important to evaluate vegetation recovery following woodland control to develop best management practices. In this study, we compared two fuel reduction treatments and a cut-and-leave (CUT) treatment used to control western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis spp. occidentalis Hook.) of the northwestern United States. Treatments were; CUT, cut-and-broadcast burn (BURN), and cut-pile-and-burn the pile (PILE). A randomized complete block design was used with five replicates of each treatment located in a curl leaf mahogany (Cercocarpus ledifolius Nutt. ex Torr. & A. Gray)/mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. spp. vaseyana (Rydb.) Beetle)/Idaho fescue (Festuca idahoensis Elmer) association. In 2010, 4 years after tree control the cover of perennial grasses (PG) [Sandberg’s bluegrass (Poa secunda J. Pres) and large bunchgrasses] were about 4 and 5 % less, respectively, in the BURN (7.1 ± 0.6 %) than the PILE (11.4 ± 2.3 %) and CUT (12.4 ± 1.7 %) treatments (P < 0.0015). In 2010, cover of invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) was greater in the BURN (6.3 ± 1.0 %) and was 50 and 100 % greater than PILE and CUT treatments, respectively. However, the increase in perennial bunchgrass density and cover, despite cheatgrass in the BURN treatment, mean it unlikely that cheatgrass will persist as a major understory component. In the CUT treatment mahogany cover increased 12.5 % and density increased in from 172 ± 25 to 404 ± 123 trees/ha. Burning, killed most or all of the adult mahogany, and mahogany recovery consisted of 100 and 67 % seedlings in the PILE and BURN treatments, respectively. After treatment, juniper presence from untreated small trees (<1 m tall; PILE and CUT treatments) and seedling emergence (all treatments) represented 25–33 % of pre-treatment tree density. To maintain recovery of herbaceous, shrub, and mahogany species additional control of reestablished juniper will be necessary.     

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat.

Caribou are an integral component of high-latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce-lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.