Frailty in state-space models: application to actuarial senescence in the Dipper

Senescence, a decrease in life history traits with age, is a within-individual process. The lack of suitable methods to deal with individual heterogeneity has long impeded progress in exploring senescence in wild populations. Analyses of survival senescence are additionally complicated by the often neglected issue of imperfect detectability. To deal with both these issues, we developed state-space models to analyze capture-mark-recapture data while accounting for individual heterogeneity by incorporating random effects. We illustrated our approach by applying it to 29 years of data on breeding females in a Dipper (Cinclus cinclus) population. We highlighted patterns of age-related variation in annual survival by statistical comparisons of piecewise linear, quadratic, Gompertz, and Weibull survival models. The Gompertz model was ranked first in our set. It provided strong evidence for actuarial senescence with an onset of senescence estimated at about 2.3 years. The probability for this model to involve a frailty was 0.15, and the probability to involve an individual latent effect in detection was about 0.4. The estimated mean age at first reproduction was 1.2 years. The general case model described here in detail should encourage the reanalysis of actuarial senescence in cases where imperfect detection or individual heterogeneity is suspected.     

Landscape Correlates of Breeding Bird Richness Across the United States Mid-Atlantic Region

Using a new set of landscape indicator data generated by the U.S.EPA, and a comprehensive breeding bird database from the National Breeding Bird Survey, we evaluated associations between breeding bird richness and landscape characteristics across the entire mid-Atlantic region of the United States. We evaluated how these relationships varied among different groupings (guilds) of birds based on functional, structural, and compositional aspects of individual species demographics. Forest edge was by far the most important landscape attribute affecting the richness of the lumped specialist and generalist guilds; specialist species richness was negatively associated with forest edge and generalist richness was positively associated with forest edge. Landscape variables (indicators) explained a greater proportion of specialist species richness than the generalist guild (46% and 31%, respectively). The lower value in generalists may reflect finer-scale distributions of open habitat that go undetected by the Landsat satellite, open habitats created by roads (the areas from which breeding bird data are obtained), and the lumping of a wide variety of species into the generalist category. A further breakdown of species into 16 guilds showed considerable variation in the response of breeding birds to landscape conditions; forest obligate species had the strongest association with landscape indicators measured in this study (55% of the total variation explained) and forest generalists and open ground nesters the lowest (17% of the total variation explained). The variable response of guild species richness to landscape pattern suggests that one must consider species' demographics when assessing the consequences of landscape change on breeding birds.     

Sperm storage reflects within- and extra-pair mating opportunities in a cooperatively breeding bird

In passerine birds, storage and maturation of sperm takes place in the cloacal protuberance (CP), an external swelling of the reproductive organ. The considerable variation in CP size among species is presumed to be a consequence of varying levels of sperm-competition, but whether individual variation in CP size within a species also reflects sperm competition is not well established. Here, we study temporal variation in male CP size in relation to within-pair and extra-pair mating opportunities and cuckoldry risk in purple-crowned fairy-wrens Malurus coronatus. This is a socially monogamous cooperatively breeding passerine that can breed year-round and has low levels of extra-pair paternity (in 6?% of broods). We show that male CP size sharply increased a few weeks before, and rapidly regressed after his partner laid eggs, consistent with a cost of its maintenance and/or sperm production. Surprisingly, despite low levels of extra-pair paternity, CP size of non-breeding and pre-breeding males was positively correlated with the number of breeding females in the population, suggesting that CP size is sensitive to extra-pair mating opportunities. However, CP sizes do not seem to reflect cuckoldry risk: CP size of dominant males was unaffected by the presence of a subordinate that was unrelated to the dominant female, although those subordinates occasionally sire offspring, and had a larger CP than subordinates living with their mother. Our results suggest that, even in a species with low levels of extra-pair paternity, individual investment in sperm storage reflects both within-pair and, albeit to lesser extent, extra-pair mating opportunities.     

Choice of teenagers' vehicles and views on vehicle safety: survey of parents of novice teenage drivers

Objective

To examine parental decisions about vehicles driven by teenagers and parental knowledge of vehicle safety.

Methods

About 300 parents were interviewed during spring 2006 in Minnesota, North Carolina, and Rhode Island while teenagers took their first on-road driving tests.

Results

Fewer than half of parents surveyed said teenagers would be the primary drivers of the chosen vehicles. Parents most often cited safety, existing family vehicle, and reliability when explaining the choices for their teenagers’ vehicles. About half of the vehicles intended for teenagers were small/mini/sports cars, pickups, or SUVs — vehicles considered less safe for teenagers than midsize/large cars or minivans. A large majority of vehicles were 2001 models or earlier. Vehicles purchased in anticipation of adding a new driver to the family were more likely to be the sizes/types considered less safe than vehicles already owned. Few parents insisted on side airbags or electronic stability control, despite strong evidence of their safety benefits. Even when asked to identify ideal vehicles for their teenagers to drive, about half of parents identified less safe vehicle sizes/types. Most parents knew that midsize/large vehicles are safer than small vehicles, and at least half of parents said SUVs and pickups are not safe for teenage drivers, citing instability.

Conclusions

The majority of parents understood some of the important criteria for choosing safe vehicles for their teenagers. However, parents actually selected many vehicles for teenagers that provide inferior crash protection.

Impact on industry

Vehicle safety varies substantially by vehicle size, type, and safety features. Many teenagers are driving inferior vehicles in terms of crashworthiness and crash avoidance.     

Androgenic and antiandrogenic activities in water and sediment samples from the river Lambro, Italy, detected by yeast androgen screen and chemical analyses

The river Lambro is the most polluted tributary of the river Po in North Italy and was chosen as a representative water course discharging industrialized areas. Water and sediment samples of the river Lambro were investigated regarding the presence of endocrine disrupting compounds. A combined procedure was used consisting of solid-phase extraction and HPLC based fractionation of samples, of screening for (anti)androgenic activity using the yeast androgen screen (YAS) and of chemical analysis using HPLC-MS/MS and GC-MS. Androgenic and antiandrogenic activities were found in specific fractions of the water and sediment while the total extracts showed antiandrogenic activity only. The chemical analysis of the fractions and total extracts with antiandrogenic activities revealed the presence of compounds with suspected antiandrogenic potency such as bisphenol A, iprodione, nonylphenol, p,p'-DDE and tert-octylphenol but other unknown compounds contributed mainly to the observed antiandrogenic activities. The antiandrogenic load of the river Lambro ranged between 1.34 and 17.1 microM flutamide-equivalents and may pose a risk to aquatic environments. Future screenings for EDC in the environment that have the potential to interfere with reproduction of aquatic organisms should be extended to different modes of actions including (anti)androgenic ones.     

17 β-estradiol mineralization in human waste products and soil in the presence and the absence of antimicrobials

Natural steroidal estrogens, such as 17 β-estradiol (E2), as well as antimicrobials such as doxycycline and norfloxacin, are excreted by humans and hence detected in sewage sludge and biosolid. The disposal of human waste products on agricultural land results in estrogens and antibiotics being detected as mixtures in soils. The objective of this study was to examine microbial respiration and E2 mineralization in sewage sludge, biosolid, and soil in the presence and the absence of doxycycline and norfloxacin. The antimicrobials were applied to the media either alone or in combination at total rates of 4 and 40 mg kg^?1, with the 4 mg kg^?1 rate being an environmentally relevant concentration. The calculated time that half of the applied E2 was mineralized ranged from 294 to 418 days in sewage sludge, from 721 to 869 days in soil, and from 2,258 to 14,146 days in biosolid. E2 mineralization followed first-order and the presence of antimicrobials had no significant effect on mineralization half-lives, except for some antimicrobial applications to the human waste products. At 189 day, total E2 mineralization was significantly greater in sewage sludge (38 ±0.7%) > soil (23 ±0.7%) > biosolid (3 ±0.7%), while total respiration was significantly greater in biosolid (1,258 mg CO₂) > sewage sludge (253 mg CO₂) ≥ soil (131 mg CO₂). Strong sorption of E2 to the organic fraction in biosolid may have resulted in reduced E2 mineralization despite the high microbial activity in this media. Total E2 mineralization at 189 day was not significantly influenced by the presence of doxycycline and/or norfloxacin in the media. Antimicrobial additions also did not significantly influence total respiration in media, except that total CO₂ respiration at 189 day was significantly greater for biosolid with 40 mg kg^?1 doxycycline added, relative to biosolid without antimicrobials. We conclude that it is unlikely for doxycycline and norfloxacin, or their mixtures, to have a significant effect on E2 mineralization in human waste products and soil. However, the potential for E2 to be persistent in biosolids, with and without the presence of antimicrobials, is posing a challenge for biosolid disposal to agricultural lands.     

LEHR superfund stormwater runoff and putah creek mercury issues

Stormwater runoff from the University of California, Davis/U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory for Energy‐Related Health Research (UCD/US DOE LEHR) Superfund site located on the University of California campus in Davis, California, has been found to contain over 500 ng/L of total recoverable mercury, which is about ten times the California Toxics Rule criterion. This stormwater runoff is discharged to Putah Creek, which is Clean Water Act Section 303(d) listed as impaired for excessive mercury bioaccumulation in edible fish. A discussion is presented on the potential impact of the mercury in stormwater runoff from LEHR leading to excessive bioaccumulation of mercury in Putah Creek fish. The mercury in the stormwater runoff is derived from former flooding of the soils near the creek, which contains mercury derived from abandoned upstream mercury mines located in the Coast Range Vaca Hills to the west of LEHR. The implications of this situation for implementing a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) to control mercury in stormwater runoff to Putah Creek are presented. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Pesticide concentrations in agricultural storm drainage inlets of a small Swiss catchment

Agricultural pesticides transported to surface waters pose a major risk for aquatic ecosystems. Modelling studies indicate that the inlets of agricultural storm drainage systems can considerably increase the connectivity of surface runoff and pesticides to surface waters. These model results have however not yet been validated with field measurements. In this study, we measured discharge and concentrations of 51 pesticides in four out of 158 storm drainage inlets of a small Swiss agricultural catchment (2.8 km²) and in the receiving stream. For this, we performed an event-triggered sampling during 19 rain events and collected plot-specific pesticide application data. Our results show that agricultural storm drainage inlets strongly influence surface runoff and pesticide transport in the study catchment. The concentrations of single pesticides in inlets amounted up to 62 µg/L. During some rain events, transport through single inlets caused more than 10% of the stream load of certain pesticides. An extrapolation to the entire catchment suggests that during selected events on average 30 to 70% of the load in the stream was transported through inlets. Pesticide applications on fields with surface runoff or spray drift potential to inlets led to increased concentrations in the corresponding inlets. Overall, this study corroborates the relevance of such inlets for pesticide transport by establishing a connectivity between fields and surface waters, and by their potential to deliver substantial pesticide loads to surface waters.

     

Thermal strain in fire fighters while wearing task-fitted versus en 469:2005 protective clothing during a prolonged rescue drill.

Fire fighters are normally overprotected during their working hours because of the tendency to keep the personal protection level sufficiently high in case of the worst possible scenarios. This study investigated the effects of task-fitted protective clothing on thermal strain in fire fighters as compared to EN 469:2005 protective clothing during a prolonged (2 1/2 hrs) job-related rescue drill under neutral and hot climates. The subjects were 23 healthy, physically fit professional male fire fighters aged 26-44 years. Measurements included cardiovascular and thermal responses and subjective assessments. Wearing task-fitted clothing during rescue tasks in a neutral climate considerably reduced total thermal and cardiovascular strain in prolonged rescue work. The fire fighters also perceived physical work as significantly harder on average, and reported more intense subjective discomfort while wearing EN 469:2005 as compared to task-fitted clothing.     

Framing the flood: a media analysis of themes of resilience in the 2011 Brisbane flood

In the wake of the flood that affected Brisbane, Australia, in January 2011, public attention turned to the causes of the event and lessons for minimizing the impacts of future floods. The news media was an important vehicle for understanding and internalizing the 2011 Brisbane flood. Examining how the flood was framed in the media is, therefore, useful to understand broad public perception of floods. We undertook a systematic newspaper analysis during a one-year period to explore media framings of the flood, focused on learning as an aspect of resilience in relation to two themes: (1) perceived links between the flood and climate change and (2) perceived roles of government in managing the flood. We show that media coverage of the flood reinforces aspects of resilience by acknowledging community spirit, self-reliance and the importance of sharing experiences for learning; articulating the risk of extreme events in a changing climate; and highlighting regional management trade-offs. Much of the discourse is likely to inhibit resilience, however, by casting the flood in terms of blame and political opportunity and paying inadequate attention to longer-term aspects of regional resilience. The limited learning observed to date may highlight a need for other mechanisms and actors to lead learning processes. As policy related to the 2011 Brisbane flood, and extreme events more generally, is influenced by the public discourse, it is important to understand the nuances of communication around these events and the media’s role in reinforcing or changing perceptions.