A concept model to estimate the potential distribution of the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama) in Australia under climate change—A means for assessing biosecurity risk

Increasing global temperatures as a result of climate change are widely considered inevitable for Australia. Despite this, the specific effects of climate change on Australian agriculture are little studied and the effects on agricultural pests and diseases are virtually unknown. In this paper we consider the impact of climate change on the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama [Hemiptera: Psyllidae]); one of two known vectors of huanglongbing (citrus greening); a debilitating disease which is caused in Asia by a phloem-limited bacterium ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ (α-Proteobacteria). D. citri does not occur in Australia, but if introduced would pose a major threat to the viability of the Australian citrus industry and to native Citrus species. This paper presents an approach developed to understand how climate change may influence the behaviour, distribution and breeding potential of D. citri. Here we developed and describe an initial dynamic point model of D. citri biology in relation to its citrus host and applied it to a scenario of increasing temperatures, as indicators of climate change, on a continental scale. A comparison between model outputs for the three time frames considered (1990, 2030 and 2070) confirms that increasing temperatures projected under climate change will affect the timing and duration of new citrus growth (flush) necessary for psyllid development throughout Australia. Flushing will start progressively earlier as the temperature increases and be of shorter duration. There will also be a gradual southward expansion of shorter durations of the occurrence of flush. Increasing temperatures will impact on D. citri both directly through alteration of its temperature dependant development cycle and indirectly through the impact on the host flushing cycle. For the whole of Australia, a comparison between model outputs for the three scenarios considered indicates the seasonality of D. citri development will change to match changes in citrus flush initiation. Results indicate that the risk of establishment by D. citri is projected to decrease under increasing temperatures, mainly due to shortened intervals when it can feed on new leaf flushes of the host. However, the spatially heterogeneous results also suggest that regions located on the southern coastline of Australia could become more suitable for D. citri than projected under current temperatures. These results confirm the value of a linked host-pest approach as based on D. citri climatic requirements alone the model would have accounted only for shorter development periods and predicted an increased risk of potential distribution.     

A conceptual model of the role of complex science in local authority consultations about air quality management

Abstract

There exists a clear imperative across the EU and within the UK towards the enhanced integration of community knowledge in environmental and health decision-making processes. The underlying social force that underpins this dynamic is the drive for a more accountable, transparent and publicly acceptable decision-making arena. However, relatively little research has been undertaken on the evaluation of local air quality management consultation in particular. In this context, the paper presents an evaluation of evidence resulting from questionnaire survey and case study research undertaken in the first round of the statutory process of local air quality management (LAQM), in which local authorities are required to consult on their air quality findings and intentions. We suggest that local authority perceptions of the relative abilities of differing stakeholders' grasp of air quality science, the process that translates that science into policy, and the institutional and organizational status of stakeholders (i.e. whether they are statutory or non-statutory stakeholders) may tend to transitively determine the choice of consultation methods used, the communication strategies chosen and the relative integration of stakeholder feedback into the LAQM decision-making process. In order to interrogate this potentially problematic chain of risk communication events, a preliminary conceptual model has been developed to enable the interrogation of the pathways through, and the obstacles to, the translation of air quality knowledge. The task is to unveil the sequential chains of association that comprise the LAQM risk communication process.     

Judging the Risk of Exceedance: Local authority decision-making for air quality management area designation

Management of air quality by local government in the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) requires a process of local decision-making, involving collaboration between local politicians, authority officers and interest-groups. Since the establishment of the first National Air Quality Strategy for the UK in 1997, local authority environmental health professionals have undertaken a scientific review and assessment process to identify locations where predicted future pollutant concentrations may exceed national air quality objectives. Air quality management areas (AQMAs) are declared where such exceedences are predicted. Over recent years, significant changes in local authority decision-making structures in England, Scotland and Wales have occurred, resulting in changes to the structure and governance in many local authorities. Results are presented from local authority surveys undertaken to examine the occurrence of any conflicts between the science involved in predicting exceedences and the local political decision-making processes in declaring AQMAs. Data are presented for a sample set of local authorities in Great Britain from which it is concluded that decision-making structures in local government are having a demonstrable impact on the designation of AQMAs.     

Effects of Mowing and Prescribed Fire on Plant Community Structure and Function in Rare Coastal Sandplains,Nantucket Island,MA, USA

Coastal sandplains provide habitat for a suite of rare and endangered plant and wildlife species in the northeastern United States. These early successional plant communities were maintained by natural and anthropogenic disturbances including salt spray, fire, and livestock grazing, but over the last 150 years, a decrease in anthropogenic disturbance frequency and intensity has resulted in a shift towards woody shrub dominance at the expense of herbaceous taxa. This study quantified the effects of more than a decade of dormant season disturbance-based vegetation management (mowing and prescribed fire) on coastal sandplain plant community composition on Nantucket Island, Massachusetts, USA. We used time-series plant cover data from two similar sites to evaluate the effectiveness of disturbance management for restoring herbaceous species cover and reducing woody shrub dominance. Our results indicate that applying management outside of the peak of the growing season has not been effective in maintaining or increasing the cover of herbaceous species. While management activities resulted in significant (P < 0.01) increases in herbaceous species immediately after treatment, woody species recolonized and dominated treated sites within 3-years post treatment at the expense of graminoids and forbs. These results highlight the difficulties associated with directing ecological succession using disturbance-based management to maintain rare, herbaceous species in coastal sandplain systems that were once a prevalent landscape component under historically chronic anthropogenic disturbance. Further experimentation with growing season disturbance-based management and different combinations of management techniques could provide insights into management alternatives for maintaining herbaceous conservation targets in coastal sandplains.     

Expediting sustainable brownfields redevelopment by applying Triad using the membrane interface probe

Redevelopment and reuse plans are often based upon an expedited delineation and remediation life cycle, since delayed reuse usually has economic consequences. It has also become increasingly important to utilize sustainable practices to achieve investigation and remediation goals. In this article, the Triad approach is used to expedite the delineation of a source area within a municipal landfill to complete the remedial effort prior to construction of an urban civic center. The Triad approach uses the three elements of systematic project planning, dynamic work strategy, and real‐time measurement to expedite site characterization (Interstate Technology and Regulatory Council, 2003). In this article, the Triad sampling strategy consisted of two phases. The first phase included in situ screening of soil and groundwater using the membrane interface probe (MIP), and the second phase included confirmatory sampling via vertical profiles in the soil and groundwater. This study found that, using the MIP in a dynamic sampling strategy, a critical element of the Triad approach, combined with the proper placement of confirmatory samples, significantly reduced overall project cost and will expedite the site redevelopment. The use of the Triad approach also contributed to the integration of green and sustainable practices into the project. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.