Estimated effects of climate change on flood vulnerability of U.S. bridges

We assessed the potential impacts of increased river flooding from climate change on bridges in the continental United States. Daily precipitation statistics from four climate models and three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, and B1) were used to capture a range of potential changes in climate. Using changes in maximum daily precipitation, we estimated changes to the peak flow rates for the 100-year return period for 2,097 watersheds. These estimates were then combined with information from the National Bridge Inventory database to estimate changes to bridge scour vulnerability. The results indicate that there may be significant potential risks to bridges in the United States from increased precipitation intensities. Approximately 129,000 bridges were found to be currently deficient. Tens of thousands to more than 100,000 bridges could be vulnerable to increased river flows. Results by region vary considerably. In general, more bridges in eastern areas are vulnerable than those in western areas. The highest GHG emissions scenarios result in the largest number of bridges being at risk. The costs of adapting vulnerable bridges to avoid increased damage associated with climate change vary from approximately $140 to $250 billion through the 21st century. If these costs were spread out evenly over the century, the annual costs would be several billion dollars. The costs of protecting the bridges against climate change risks could be reduced by approximately 30% if existing deficient bridges are improved with riprap.     

Independent effects of male and female density on sexual harassment, female fitness, and male competition for mates in the western mosquitofish Gambusia affinis

Operational sex ratio (the ratio of sexually active males to fertilizable females) has a major influence on male competition for mates and male–female interactions. The contributions of male and female density per se to mating system dynamics, however, are rarely examined, and the fitness consequences are often inferred rather than quantified. Male mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis) compete aggressively and frequently harass females for copulations, a behavior thought to reduce female fitness. Female fitness can also be reduced by increases in female density, which may affect food availability, cannibalism rates, and chemical interactions between females. I manipulated male and female densities of G. affinis to measure their effects on male–male aggression, male harassment toward females, and female fitness. I found that males chased rivals more often and attempted fewer copulations when female density decreased, but surprisingly male density had no significant effect on the frequency of these male behaviors. In contrast, males’ agonistic displays toward other males increased with male density, but display behavior was unaffected by female density. These results suggest that male and female density do not always contribute equally or at all to the patterns of behavior we observe. Female fitness declined as female density increased, the opposite pattern expected if male harassment is costly to females. This suggests that a strong, negative effect of female density overwhelmed any potential costs of male harassment. Sources of female density dependence and the consequences of changes in male and female density to patterns of male behavior are discussed.     

A critical number of workers in a honeybee colony triggers investment in reproduction

Social insect colonies, like individual organisms, must decide as they develop how to allocate optimally their resources among survival, growth, and reproduction. Only when colonies reach a certain state do they switch from investing purely in survival and growth to investing also in reproduction. But how do worker bees within a colony detect that their colony has reached the state where it is adaptive to begin investing in reproduction? Previous work has shown that larger honeybee colonies invest more in reproduction (i.e., the production of drones and queens), however, the term ‘larger’ encompasses multiple colony parameters including number of adult workers, size of the nest, amount of brood, and size of the honey stores. These colony parameters were independently increased in this study to test which one(s) would increase a colony’s investment in reproduction via males. This was assayed by measuring the construction of drone comb, the special type of comb in which drones are reared. Only an increase in the number of workers stimulated construction of drone comb. Colonies with over 4,000 workers began building drone comb, independent of the other colony parameters. These results show that attaining a critical number of workers is the key parameter for honeybee colonies to start to shift resources towards reproduction. These findings are relevant to other social systems in which a group’s members must adjust their behavior as a function of the group’s size.     

The Tropical Peatland Plantation-Carbon Assessment Tool: estimating CO2 emissions from tropical peat soils under plantations

Land use change on Indonesian peatlands contributes to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Accessible predictive tools are required to estimate likely soil carbon (C) losses and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from peat soils under this land use change. Research and modelling efforts in tropical peatlands are limited, restricting the availability of data for complex soil model parameterisation and evaluation. The Tropical Peatland Plantation-Carbon Assessment Tool (TROPP-CAT) was developed to provide a user friendly tool to evaluate and predict soil C losses and CO₂ emissions from tropical peat soils. The tool requires simple input values to determine the rate of subsidence, of which the oxidising proportion results in CO₂ emissions. This paper describes the model structure and equations, and presents a number of evaluation and application runs. TROPP-CAT has been applied for both site specific and national level simulations, on existing oil palm and Acacia plantations, as well as on peat swamp forest sites to predict likely emissions from future land use change. Through an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, literature reviews and comparison with other methods of estimating soil C losses, the paper identifies opportunities for future model development, bridging between different approaches to predicting CO₂ emissions from tropical peatlands under land use change. TROPP-CAT can be accessed online from www.redd-alert.eu in both English and Bahasa Indonesia.     

Climate change vulnerability assessments as catalysts for social learning: four case studies in south-eastern Australia

Technical assessments of vulnerability and/or risk are increasingly being undertaken to assess the impacts of climate change. Underlying this is the belief that they will bring clarity to questions regarding the scale of institutional investments required, plausible adaptation policies and measures, and the timing of their implementation. Despite the perceived importance of technical assessments in 'evidence-based' decision environments, assessments cannot be undertaken independent of values and politics, nor are they capable of eliminating the uncertainty that clouds decision-making on climate adaptation As such, assessments can trigger as many questions as they answer, leaving practitioners and stakeholders to question their value. This paper explores the value of vulnerability/risk assessments in climate change adaptation planning processes as a catalyst for learning in four case studies in Southeastern Australia. Data were collected using qualitative interviews with stakeholders involved in the assessments and analysed using a social learning framework. This analysis revealed that detailed and tangible strategies or actions often do not emerge directly from technical assessments. However, it also revealed that the assessments became important platforms for social learning. In providing these platforms, assessments present opportunities to question initial assumptions, explore multiple framings of an issue, generate new information, and galvanise support for collective actions. This study highlights the need for more explicit recognition and understanding of the important role social learning plays in climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning more broadly.     

Analysis of PFAAs in American alligators part 2: Potential dietary exposure of South Carolina hunters from recreationally harvested alligator meat

Exposure to perfluorinated alkyl acids (PFAAs) has been linked to many harmful health effects including reproductive disorders, developmental delays, and altered liver and kidney function. Most human exposure to environmental contaminants, including PFAAs, occurs through consumption of contaminated food or drinking water. This study uses PFAA data from meat samples collected from recreationally harvested American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in South Carolina to assess potential dietary exposure of hunters and their families to PFAAs. Consumption patterns were investigated using intercept surveys of 23 hunters at a wild game meat processor. An exposure scenario using the average consumption frequency, portion size, and median perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) concentration in alligator meat from all hunt units found the daily dietary exposure to be 2.11 ng/kg body weight per day for an adult human. Dietary PFOS exposure scenarios based on location of harvest suggested the highest daily exposure occurs with alligator meat from the Middle Coastal hunt unit in South Carolina. Although no samples were found to exceed the recommended threshold for no consumption of PFOS found in Minnesota state guidelines, exposure to a mixture of PFAAs found in alligator meat and site-specific exposures based on harvest location should be considered in determining an appropriate guideline for vulnerable populations potentially exposed to PFAAs through consumption of wild alligator meat.     

Long-Term Benthic Macroinvertebrate Community Monitoring to Assess Pollution Abatement Effectiveness

The benthic macroinvertebrate community of East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in East Tennessee was monitored for 18 years to evaluate the effectiveness of a water pollution control program implemented at a major United States (U.S.) Department of Energy facility. Several actions were implemented to reduce and control releases of pollutants into the headwaters of the stream. Four of the most significant actions were implemented during different time periods, which allowed assessment of each action. Macroinvertebrate samples were collected annually in April from three locations in EFPC (EFK24, EFK23, and EFK14) and two nearby reference streams from 1986 through 2003. Significant improvements occurred in the macroinvertebrate community at the headwater sites (EFK24 and EFK23) after implementation of each action, while changes detected 9 km further downstream (EFK14) could not be clearly attributed to any of the actions. Because the stream was impacted at its origin, invertebrate recolonization was primarily limited to aerial immigration, thus, recovery has been slow. As recovery progressed, abundances of small pollution-tolerant taxa (e.g., Orthocladiinae chironomids) decreased and longer lived taxa colonized (e.g., hydropsychid caddisflies, riffle beetles, Baetis). While assessments lasting three to four years may be long enough to detect a response to new pollution controls at highly impacted locations, more time may be needed to understand the full effects. Studies on the effectiveness of pollution controls can be improved if impacted and reference sites are selected to maximize spatial and temporal trending, and if a multidisciplinary approach is used to broadly assess environmental responses (e.g., water quality trends, invertebrate and fish community assessments, toxicity testing, etc.).     

Comparison of several packings for CO2 chemical absorption in a packed column

CO₂ capture and storage has gained widespread attention as an option for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Chemical absorption and stripping of CO₂ with hot potassium carbonate (K₂CO₃) solutions has been used in the past, however potassium carbonate solutions have a low CO₂ absorption efficiency. Various techniques can be used to improve the absorption efficiency of this system with one option being the addition of promoters to the solvent and another option being an improvement in the mass transfer efficiency of the equipment. This study has focused on improving the efficiency of the packed column by replacing traditional packings with newer types of packing which have been shown to have enhanced mass transfer performance. Three different packings (Super Mini Rings (SMRs), Pall Rings and Mellapak) have been studied under atmospheric conditions in a laboratory scale column for CO₂ absorption using a 30 wt% K₂CO₃ solution. It was found that SMR packing resulted in a mass transfer coefficient approximately 20% and 30% higher than that of Mellapak and Pall Rings, respectively. Therefore, the height of packed column with SMR packing would be substantially lower than with Pall Rings or Mellapak. Meanwhile, the pressure drop using SMR was comparable to other packings while the gas flooding velocity was higher when the liquid load was above 25 kg m⁻² s⁻¹. Correlations for predicting flooding gas velocities and pressure drop were fitted to the experimental data, allowing the relevant parameters to be estimated for use in later design.