Monotonicity-constrained species distribution models

Flexible modeling frameworks for species distribution models based on generalized additive models that allow for smooth, nonlinear effects and interactions are of increasing importance in ecology. Commonly, the flexibility of such smooth function estimates is controlled by means of penalized estimation procedures. However, the actual shape remains unspecified. In many applications, this is not desirable as researchers have a priori assumptions on the shape of the estimated effects, with monotonicity being the most important. Here we demonstrate how monotonicity constraints can be incorporated in a recently proposed flexible framework for species distribution models. Our proposal allows monotonicity constraints to be imposed on smooth effects and on ordinal, categorical variables using an additional asymmetric L2 penalty. Model estimation and variable selection for Red Kite (Milvus milvus) breeding was conducted using the flexible boosting framework implemented in R package mboost.     

Environmental impact propagated by cross-system subsidy: chronic stream pollution controls riparian spider populations

Resource subsidies between habitats are common and create the potential for the propagation of environmental impacts across system boundaries. However, recent understanding of the potential for subsidy-mediated cross-system impact propagations is limited and primarily based on passive flows of nutrients and detritus or short-term effects. Here, we assess the effects of sustained alterations in aquatic insect emergence (active subsidy pathway), due to chronic stream pollution, for riparian spiders. The sustained reduction in aquatic insect densities at the polluted reaches resulted in a marked decline in web spider population density and a shift in spider community composition. Our results provide the first evidence that stream pollution can control populations and community structure of terrestrial predators via sustained alterations in aquatic subsidies, emphasizing the role of subtle trophic linkages in the transmission of environmental impacts across ecosystem boundaries.     

Soil microbes drive the classic plant diversity-productivity pattern

Ecosystem productivity commonly increases asymptotically with plant species diversity, and determining the mechanisms responsible for this well-known pattern is essential to predict potential changes in ecosystem productivity with ongoing species loss. Previous studies attributed the asymptotic diversity-productivity pattern to plant competition and differential resource use (e.g., niche complementarity). Using an analytical model and a series of experiments, we demonstrate theoretically and empirically that host-specific soil microbes can be major determinants of the diversity-productivity relationship in grasslands. In the presence of soil microbes, plant disease decreased with increasing diversity, and productivity increased nearly 500%, primarily because of the strong effect of density-dependent disease on productivity at low diversity. Correspondingly, disease was higher in plants grown in conspecific-trained soils than heterospecific-trained soils (demonstrating host-specificity), and productivity increased and host-specific disease decreased with increasing community diversity, suggesting that disease was the primary cause of reduced productivity in species-poor treatments. In sterilized, microbe-free soils, the increase in productivity with increasing plant species number was markedly lower than the increase measured in the presence of soil microbes, suggesting that niche complementarity was a weaker determinant of the diversity-productivity relationship. Our results demonstrate that soil microbes play an integral role as determinants of the diversity-productivity relationship.     

Diameter growth models for mixed-species stands of Coastal British Columbia including thinning and fertilization effects

In this study, diameter growth models for three species growing in mixed-stands of Coastal British Columbia (BC), Canada, under a variety of silvicultural treatments were developed. The three species were: Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), and western redcedar (Thuja plicata Donn). A Box and Lucas model (1959) was initially fitted to the diameter growth series for each tree, as this model is very flexible and was based on processes reflective of the metabolic processes governing tree growth. Next, a random coefficients modelling approach (i.e., parameter prediction approach) was used to modify the estimated parameters for each species using functions of tree size and stage of development, site productivity, and inter-tree competition variables, while accounting for temporal correlation within trees. Impacts of fertilization on diameter growth were estimated by including the time since fertilization as an additional variable. Since state variables that are changed as a result of thinning were already in the model, accurate results post-thinning were obtained with no changes to the model. For the combined effects of thinning and fertilization, a two-step additive approach was used, where the state variables were changed following thinning and the diameter increment was modified for fertilization using the time since fertilization variable. Results indicated that multiple treatments sustain a change in growth for a longer time period following treatment than thinning or fertilization alone.     

Evaluation of the differences between the SRTM and satellite radar altimetry height measurements and the approach taken for the ACE2 GDEM in areas of large disagreement

The new ACE2 (Altimeter Corrected Elevations 2) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) which has recently been released aims to provide the most accurate GDEM to date. ACE2 was created by synergistically merging the SRTM and altimetry datasets. The comprehensive comparison carried out between the two datasets yielded a myriad of information, with the areas of disagreement providing as much valuable information as the areas of agreement. Analysis of the comparison dataset revealed that certain topographic features displayed consistent differences between the two datasets. The largest differences globally are present over the rainforests, particularly the two largest, around the Amazon and the Congo. The differences range between 10 m and 40 m; these differences can be attributed to the height of the rainforest canopy, as the SRTM returned height values from somewhere within the uppermost reaches of the vegetation whereas the altimeter was able to penetrate through and return true ground heights. The second major class of terrain feature to demonstrate coherent differences are desert regions; here, different deserts present different characteristics. The final area of interest is that of Wetlands; these are areas of special significance because even a slight misrepresentation of the heights can have wide ranging effects in modelling wetland areas. These examples illustrate the valuable additional information content gleaned from the synergistic global combination of the two datasets.     

The effect of changes to the method of estimating the pollen count from aerobiological samples

Pollen data have been recorded at Novi Sad in Serbia since 2000. The adopted method of producing pollen counts has been the use of five longitudinal transects that examine 19.64% of total sample surface. However, counting five transects is time consuming and so the main objective of this study is to investigate whether reducing the number to three or even two transects would have a significant effect on daily average and bi-hourly pollen concentrations, as well as the main characteristics of the pollen season and long-term trends. This study has shown that there is a loss of accuracy in daily average and bi-hourly pollen concentrations (an increase in % ERROR) as the sub-sampling area is reduced from five to three or two longitudinal transects. However, this loss of accuracy does not impact on the main characteristics of the season or long-term trends. As a result, this study can be used to justify changing the sub-sampling method used at Novi Sad from five to three longitudinal transects. The use of two longitudinal transects has been ruled out because, although quicker, the counts produced: (a) had the greatest amount of % ERROR, (b) altered the amount of influence of the independent variable on the dependent variable (the slope in regression analysis) and (c) the total sampled surface (7.86%) was less than the minimum requirement recommended by the European Aerobiology Society working group on Quality Control (at least 10% of total slide area).     

Networking emergency teams in Jerusalem

With the recent upsurge in terrorism, more and more attention is being directed at examining the effectiveness and efficiency of emergency teams. These teams tend to focus on their areas of expertise without necessarily communicating, cooperating or coordinating their operations. Research suggests that improved interpersonal communication and coordination enhances the overall work of each emergency team, and that their combined effort is far in excess of the sum of their individual endeavours. This paper outlines attempts made in Jerusalem to improve the performance of emergency teams and to help the helpers by holding training workshops, setting up a forum of co‐workers and encouraging dialogue among various emergency teams in the city. A planned intervention programme was designed to enable informal networking between team leaders. The programme had an impact on team workers and resulted in a more coordinated and effective service delivery during emergencies.     

Deciphering epigenetic(s) role in modulating susceptibility to and severity of COVID-19 infection and/or outcome: a systematic rapid review

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - COVID-19 pandemic waves hitting worldwide result in drastic postinfection complications with interindividual variations, which raised the question for...