Observed Winter Warming of the Chesapeake Bay Estuary (1949–2002): Implications for Ecosystem Management

A large number of studies have documented 20th century climate variability and change at the global, hemispheric, and regional levels. However, understanding the implications of climate change for environmental management necessitates information at the level of the ecosystem. Historical monitoring data from the Chesapeake Bay estuary were used to identify temporal patterns of estuarine temperature anomalies in the surface (1 m) and subsurface (15 m) between 1949 and 2002. Data indicated a trend in surface and subsurface warming of +0.16°C and +0.21°C per decade, respectively, driven by warming during winter and spring. These trends suggest warming of the estuary since the mid-20th century of approximately 0.8–1.1°C. Estuarine temperatures correlated well with other independent data records for sea surface and surface air temperatures in the region and to a lesser extent, the northern hemisphere. Gross long-term temperature variability in the estuary was consistent with North Atlantic climate variability associated with the prolonged positive North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation and increased anthropogenic radiative forcing, although localized environmental drivers likely are important as well. A simple spatial analysis revealed strong seasonal latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in estuarine temperature as well as a north–south gradient in long-term temperature trends. Continued warming of the estuary will have important implications for ecosystem structure and function as well as attempts to manage existing challenges such as eutrophication and benthic hypoxia. However, such management efforts must be cognizant of the effects of various climate and nonclimate drivers of environmental variability and change operating over different spatial and temporal scales.Published online     

A Preliminary Index of Biotic Integrity for Monitoring the Condition of the Rio Paraiba do Sul,Southeast Brazil

The biodiversity of many Brazilian rivers is seriously threatened by industrial and municipal pollution, and Rio Paraiba do Sul, located between two major industrial centers is one example of this situation. A survey of the fish assemblage was conducted from October 1998 to September 1999 and the data were used to develop an index of biotic integrity (IBI). We sampled three zones in bracketing a large urban–industrial complex to evaluate water quality changes and the usefulness of the IBI as a monitoring tool. Water quality was classified as poor upstream of the effluent discharges, very poor near the discharges, and poor–fair downstream of the discharges, with this latter situation revealing the current biological capacity of the river. Physical and chemical habitat characteristics were also measured at each site to construct an independent environmental index to validate the IBI. The habitat and IBI indices were highly correlated, suggesting this IBI would be applicable to other large rivers in southeast Brazil.     

Individual difference factors in risky driving among older adults

INTRODUCTION: Motor-vehicle crashes kill roughly 4,500 American adults over the age of 75 annually. Among younger adults, one behavioral factor consistently linked to risky driving is personality, but this predictor has been overshadowed by research on cognitive, perceptual, and motor processes among older drivers. METHOD: In this study, a sample of 101 licensed drivers, all age 75 and over, were recruited to complete self-report measures on personality, temperament, and driving history. Participants also completed a virtual environment (VE) course designed to assess risk-taking driving behavior. State records of motor-vehicle crashes were collected. RESULTS: Results suggest both a sensation-seeking personality and an undercontrolled temperament are related to risky driving among older adults. Sensation-seeking was particularly related to history of violations and tickets, while temperamental control was more broadly related to a number of risky driving measures. Methodological and crash prevention issues are discussed.     

Parameter uncertainties in the modelling of vegetation dynamics—Effects on tree community structure and ecosystem functioning in European forest biomes

Dynamic vegetation models are useful tools for analysing terrestrial ecosystem processes and their interactions with climate through variations in carbon and water exchange. Long-term changes in structure and composition (vegetation dynamics) caused by altered competitive strength between plant functional types (PFTs) are attracting increasing attention as controls on ecosystem functioning and potential feedbacks to climate. Imperfect process knowledge and limited observational data restrict the possibility to parameterise these processes adequately and potentially contribute to uncertainty in model results. This study addresses uncertainty among parameters scaling vegetation dynamic processes in a process-based ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, designed for regional-scale studies, with the objective to assess the extent to which this uncertainty propagates to additional uncertainty in the tree community structure (in terms of the tree functional types present and their relative abundance) and thus to ecosystem functioning (carbon storage and fluxes). The results clearly indicate that the uncertainties in parameterisation can lead to a shift in competitive balance, most strikingly among deciduous tree PFTs, with dominance of either shade-tolerant or shade-intolerant PFTs being possible, depending on the choice of plausible parameter values. Despite this uncertainty, our results indicate that the resulting effect on ecosystem functioning is low. Since the vegetation dynamics in LPJ-GUESS are representative for the more complex Earth system models now being applied within ecosystem and climate research, we assume that our findings will be of general relevance. We suggest that, in terms of carbon storage and fluxes, the heavier parameterisation requirement of the processes involved does not widen the overall uncertainty in model predictions.     

The perverse fisheries consequences of mosquito net malaria prophylaxis in East Africa

Malaria is a serious global health issue, with around 200 million cases per year. As such, great effort has been put into the mass distribution of bed nets as a means of prophylaxis within Africa. Distributed mosquito nets are intended to be used for malaria protection, yet increasing evidence suggests that fishing is a primary use for these nets, providing fresh concerns for already stressed coastal ecosystems. While research documents the scale of mosquito net fisheries globally, no quantitative analysis of their landings exists. The effects of these fisheries on the wider ecosystem assemblages have not previously been examined. In this study, we present the first detailed analysis of the sustainability of these fisheries by examining the diversity, age class, trophic structure and magnitude of biomass removal. Dragnet landings, one of two gear types in which mosquito nets can be utilised, were recorded across ten sites in northern Mozambique where the use of Mosquito nets for fishing is common. Our results indicate a substantial removal of juveniles from coastal seagrass meadows, many of which are commercially important in the region or play important ecological roles. We conclude that the use of mosquito nets for fishing may contribute to food insecurity, greater poverty and the loss of ecosystem functioning.

     

Climate change mitigation and productivity gains in livestock supply chains: insights from regional case studies

Livestock can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and by increasing soil carbon sequestration. Packages of mitigation techniques can bring large environmental benefits as illustrated in six case studies modeled in the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model developed by FAO. With feasible technical interventions in livestock production systems, the mitigation potential of each of the selected species, systems and regions ranges from 14 to 41 %. While comparably high mitigation potentials were estimated for ruminant and pig production systems in Asia, Latin America and Africa, large emission reductions can also be attained in dairy systems with already high levels of productivity, in OECD countries. Mitigation interventions can lead to a concomitant reduction in emissions and increase in production, contributing to food security. This is particularly the case for improved feeding practices and better health and herd management practices. Livestock systems also have a significant potential for sequestrating carbon in pasturelands and rangelands through improved management, as illustrated in two of the six case studies in this paper.