Drivers of future streamflow changes in watersheds across the Northeastern United States

Accurate projections of streamflow, which have implications for flooding, water resources, hydropower, and ecosystems, are critical to climate change adaptation and require an understanding of streamflow sensitivity to climate drivers. The northeastern United States has experienced a dramatic increase in extreme precipitation over the past 25 years; however, the effects of these changes, as well as changes in other drivers of streamflow, remain unclear. Here, we use a random forest model forced with a regional climate model to examine historical and future streamflow dynamics of four watersheds across the Northeast. We find that streamflow in the cold season (November–May) is primarily driven by 3-day rainfall and antecedent wetness (Antecedent Precipitation Index) in three rainfall-dominant watersheds, and 30-day rainfall, antecedent wetness, and 30-day snowmelt in the fourth, more snowmelt-dominated watershed. In the warm season (June–October), streamflow is driven by antecedent wetness and rainfall in all watersheds. By the end of the century (2070–2099), cold season streamflow depends on the importance placed on snow in the machine learning model, with changes ranging from −7% (with snow) to +40% (without snow) in a single watershed. Simulated future warm season streamflow increases in two watersheds (56% and 193%) due to increased precipitation and antecedent soil wetness, but decreases in the other two watersheds (−6% and −27%) due to reduced precipitation.     

Seasonal nitrogen fluxes of the Lena River Delta

The Arctic is nutrient limited, particularly by nitrogen, and is impacted by anthropogenic global warming which occurs approximately twice as fast compared to the global average. Arctic warming intensifies thawing of permafrost-affected soils releasing their large organic nitrogen reservoir. This organic nitrogen reaches hydrological systems, is remineralized to reactive inorganic nitrogen, and is transported to the Arctic Ocean via large rivers. We estimate the load of nitrogen supplied from terrestrial sources into the Arctic Ocean by sampling in the Lena River and its Delta. We took water samples along one of the major deltaic channels in winter and summer in 2019 and sampling station in the central delta over a one-year cycle. Additionally, we investigate the potential release of reactive nitrogen, including nitrous oxide from soils in the Delta. We found that the Lena transported nitrogen as dissolved organic nitrogen to the coastal Arctic Ocean and that eroded soils are sources of reactive inorganic nitrogen such as ammonium and nitrate. The Lena and the Deltaic region apparently are considerable sources of nitrogen to nearshore coastal zone. The potential higher availability of inorganic nitrogen might be a source to enhance nitrous oxide emissions from terrestrial and aquatic sources to the atmosphere.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01665-0.     

The Use of Atmospheric Dispersion Models in Risk Assessment Decision Support Systems for Pesticides

In the evaluation of potentially adverse effects oforganic chemicals such as pesticides on theenvironment the atmosphere may play an important role.After its release to the atmosphere the chemical willbe transported/dispersed in the atmosphere and finallyit will be removed either by atmospheric-chemicaldestruction or by deposition to the underlying soil orsurface water. In a risk assessment decision supportsystem both ambient concentrations and depositionfluxes must be known to evaluate the risk of directexposure (inhalation) or the risk of soil and watercontamination caused by deposition. This paperdiscusses the use of atmospheric dispersion models insuch risk assessment decision support systems.     

The Arctic sea butterfly<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Limacina helicina</Emphasis>: lipids and life strategy

The sea butterfly Limacina helicina was collected from May to September 2001 in Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen, to investigate population structure and body and lipid composition with regard to life cycle and reproductive strategy. Veligers and juveniles were only found in late autumn and spring, whereas females occurred from July to September. The size of the females increased until mid-August and decreased in September. Dry and lipid mass were closely related to size; dry mass increased exponentially and lipids linearly with size. The lipid content was highest in veligers (31.5% of dry mass) and juveniles (23.6%) but low in females (<10%). Phospholipids were the dominating lipid class followed by triacylglycerols. Females, veligers, and egg ribbons, all from September, were richest in phospholipids. Juveniles contained the highest amounts of triacylglycerols, whereas females had low levels in July and the beginning of August. In mid-August, levels of triacylglycerols were variable and higher. This suggests that females were in their main spawning period and the high variability in triacylglycerols points to different stages within the spawning cycle. Enhanced amounts of free fatty acids in females from July may be related to gonad development. The 16:1(n-7) fatty acid was more dominant in spring whereas 18:4(n-3) increased in summer and autumn, which reflects a change in diet from diatom-dominated food items in spring to dinoflagellates in summer/autumn. Small amounts of long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids suggest ingestion of copepods, and the fatty acid composition of veligers feeding on particulate matter. L. helicina has a one-year life cycle with peak spawning in August and over-winters as veligers that may grow to juveniles during the winter period. They metamorphose into juveniles during spring, develop to males in early summer, and mature into females in July and August.Communicated by M. Kühl, Helsingør     

Blast phenomena in urban tunnel systems

Traffic infrastructure in urbanised areas is increasingly projected in tunnels underground or covered over, these days. A consequence is that in case of an incident with hazardous materials the safety level for fellow road users in tunnels is considerably less than it is in surface infrastructure. To reduce the consequences of incidents for fellow tunnel users, urban tunnels are sometimes interrupted by open spaces of limited length. Open spaces allow, for instance, the release of smoke in case of a fire. In this way, possible lethal effects are limited to the tunnel section in which the incident occurred. To what extent an open space may also be effective in the mitigation of blast effects from an explosion in a tunnel system is subject of this paper.

To this end, the blast effects originating from the rupture of a 50 m³ LPG pressure vessel in an urban tunnel system have been computed by numerical simulation. The results show that an open space in a tunnel system has a significant mitigating effect on the blast effects indeed. However, as a consequence of the ingress of a high-velocity jet flow that follows on a primary blast wave, a second blast wave develops in the tunnel section following on an open space. The strength of this second blast wave is not very dependent on the length of the open space. It shows that an open space in a tunnel system may not always limit the lethal effects of explosion incidents in tunnels to the tube in which the incident occurred. The second blast wave in the tunnel section following on an open space may have lethal consequences for fellow tunnel users by car window failure.