A quantitative risk management framework for dust and hybrid mixture explosions

Dust and hybrid-mixture explosions continue to occur in industrial processes that handle fine powders and flammable gases. Considerable research is therefore conducted throughout the world with the objective of both preventing the occurrence and mitigating the consequences of such events. In the current work, research has been undertaken to help move the field of dust explosion prevention and mitigation from its current emphasis on hazards (with an accompanying reliance on primarily engineered safety features) to a focus on risk (with an accompanying reliance on hierarchical, risk-based, decision-making tools). Employing the principles of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of dust and hybrid-mixture explosions, a methodological framework for the management of these risks has been developed.The QRA framework is based on hazard identification via credible accident scenarios for dust explosions, followed by probabilistic fault-tree analysis (using Relex – Reliability Excellence – software) and consequence severity analysis (using DESC – Dust Explosion Simulation Code – software). Identification of risk reduction measures in the framework is accomplished in a hierarchical manner by considering inherent safety measures, passive and active engineered devices, and procedural measures (in that order). An industrial case study is presented to show how inherent safety measures such as dust minimization and dust/process moderation can be helpful in reducing dust and hybrid-mixture explosion consequences in a 400-m³ polyethylene storage silo.     

An optimal level of dust explosion risk management: Framework and application

The current research provides guidance on the prevention and mitigation of dust explosion using a Quantitative Risk Management Framework (QRMF). Using concepts drawn from previous studies, the framework consists of three main steps: (i) a new combined safety management protocol, (ii) the use of DESC (Dust Explosion Simulation Code) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) to assess explosion consequences and likelihood, respectively, and (iii) application of the hierarchy of controls (inherent, engineered and procedural safety). QRMF assessment of an industrial case study showed that the original process was at high risk. DESC simulations and Probit equations determined the destructive percentages. FTAs revealed high probabilities of explosion occurrence; in addition, detailed individual and societal risks calculations were made, before and after the framework was applied. Based on the hierarchy of controls technique, the framework showed significant risk reduction to the point where the residual risk was acceptable for the process.     

Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a bow-tie diagram: An innovative approach

A bow-tie diagram combines a fault tree and an event tree to represent the risk control parameters on a common platform for mitigating an accident. Quantitative analysis of a bow-tie is still a major challenge since it follows the traditional assumptions of fault and event tree analyses. The assumptions consider the crisp probabilities and “independent” relationships for the input events. The crisp probabilities for the input events are often missing or hard to come by, which introduces data uncertainty. The assumption of “independence” introduces model uncertainty. Elicitation of expert's knowledge for the missing data may provide an alternative; however, such knowledge incorporates uncertainties and may undermine the credibility of risk analysis.This paper attempts to accommodate the expert's knowledge to overcome missing data and incorporate fuzzy set and evidence theory to assess the uncertainties. Further, dependency coefficient-based fuzzy and evidence theory approaches have been developed to address the model uncertainty for bow-tie analysis. In addition, a method of sensitivity analysis is proposed to predict the most contributing input events in the bow-tie analysis. To demonstrate the utility of the approaches in industrial application, a bow-tie diagram of the BP Texas City accident is developed and analyzed.     

Environmental citizens: climate pledger attitudes and micro-generation installation

To date, the phenomenon of climate pledging has been little investigated. This paper describes the results of a questionnaire survey of 201 climate pledgers in Greater Manchester (UK), focusing on attitudes and behaviour relevant to environmental citizenship. In particular, attention is given to attitudes and behaviour related to renewable energy and micro-generation, selectively comparing with national UK data. The survey shows that installation cost and lengthy pay-back times have been major constraints on microgen installation not just for the general population, but also for those with a high degree of environmental commitment. Nonetheless, the microgen installation rate among the climate pledgers as of early 2011, before the introduction of feed-in tariffs, was at least 11 times higher than the national average. Using regression analyses, the best model that could be found for explaining installation of the most popular microgen technology, solar thermal, accounted for 27% of variance. Within this model, environmental commitment was of less importance than having given serious consideration to other microgen options. While this was possibly due to group homogeneity, in general, the results do emphasise the limits to environmental citizenship.     

City Partners Maintain Climate Change Action Despite National Cuts: Residential Energy Efficiency Programme Valued at Local Level

Cities, regional governments and their local utilities are taking leading roles in programmes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Agenda 21 highlighted the need for such local action to achieve the goals of the 1992 Earth Summit and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This trend of increasing local action was demonstrated dramatically in Canada in 2006 when the newly elected federal government cancelled many of the previous government's climate change programmes. The EnerGuide for Houses Program illustrates the growing importance of local decisions where the federal government developed a home energy rating system that was delivered through a range of partnerships across the country. Despite all political parties voting to increase funding for the programme in 2005, the Conservative government cancelled it in May 2006. The response by provincial and local governments was immediate. Their actions revealed the ability and desire among lower-tier governments to sustain popular climate change initiatives. Both the political responses and financial implications are included in the examination of the shift in environmental responsibility from the national to the local sphere.     

阴离子粘土(LDH)吸附腐殖酸的动力学研究

利用实验室制备的镁铝阴离子粘土材料,研究其吸附水中腐殖酸的动力学.研究结果表明:在初始浓度10～40 mg/L及温度298～323 K的范围内,阴离子粘土对水中腐殖酸的吸附动力学符合拟二级速率方程;阴离子粘土对腐殖酸的吸附符合Langmuir和Freundlich等温吸附方程,吸附是吸热反应,吸附量随温度升高而略有增加,但吸附表观活化能只有15.36 kJ/mol,说明温度对此吸附的影响并不显著.     

Cobalt and secondary poisoning in the terrestrial food chain: data review and research gaps to support risk assessment

Cobalt is a naturally occurring element found in rocks, soil, water, plants, and animals and has diverse industrial importance. It is cycled in surface environments through many natural processes (e.g. volcanic eruptions, weathering) and can be introduced through numerous anthropogenic activities (e.g. burning of coal or oil, or the production of cobalt alloys). The environmental behaviour of cobalt in terrestrial environment is relatively poorly studied and in particular where Co is used in industrial processes, the baseline information to support wider and long-term environmental impacts is widely dispersed. To support the adoption of new EU regulations on the risk assessment of chemicals, we review here the various aspects of the environmental chemistry, fate and transport of Co across environmental interfaces and discuss the toxicology and potential for bio magnification and food chain accumulation. The soil-to-plant transfer of Co appears to be viable route to expose lower trophic levels to biologically significant concentrations and Co is potentially accumulated in biomass and top soil. Evidence for further accumulation through soil-invertebrate transfer and to higher trophic levels is suggested by some studies but this is obscured by the relatively high variability of published transfer data. This variation is not due to one particular aspect of the transfer of Co in terrestrial environments. Influences are from the variability of geological sources within soil systems; the sensitivity of Co mobility to environmental factors (e.g. pH) and the variety of life strategies for metal elimination/use within biological species. Toxic effects of Co have been suggested for some soil-plant animal studies however, uncertainty in the extrapolation from laboratory to field is a major limitation.     

Reconstruction of atmospheric concentrations and deposition of uranium and decay products released from the former uranium mill at Uravan, Colorado

Radionuclide concentrations in air from uranium milling emissions were estimated for the town of Uravan, Colorado, USA and the surrounding area for a 49-yr period of mill operations beginning in 1936 and ending in 1984. Milling processes with the potential to emit radionuclides to the air included crushing and grinding of ores; conveyance of ore; ore roasting, drying, and packaging of the product (U(3)O(8)); and fugitive dust releases from ore piles, tailings' piles, and roads. The town of Uravan is located in a narrow canyon formed by the San Miguel River in western Colorado. Atmospheric transport modeling required a complex terrain model. Because historical meteorological data necessary for a complex terrain model were lacking, meteorological instruments were installed, and relevant data were collected for 1 yr. Monthly average dispersion and deposition factors were calculated using the complex terrain model, CALPUFF. Radionuclide concentrations in air and deposition on ground were calculated by multiplying the estimated source-specific release rate by the dispersion or deposition factor. Time-dependent resuspension was also included in the model. Predicted concentrations in air and soil were compared to measurements from continuous air samplers from 1979 to 1986 and to soil profile sampling performed in 2006. The geometric mean predicted-to-observed ratio for annual average air concentrations was 1.25 with a geometric standard deviation of 1.8. Predicted-to-observed ratios for uranium concentrations in undisturbed soil ranged from 0.67 to 1.22. Average air concentrations from 1936 to 1984 in housing blocks ranged from about 2.5 to 6 mBq m(-3) for (238)U and 1.5 to 3.5 mBq m(-3) for (230)Th, (226)Ra, and (210)Pb.     

Towards a contraction and convergence target based on population life expectancies since 1960

This paper explores a finding that emerged in the early phases of a multidisciplinary project applying population health and psychology to issues of social progress and sustainability. Across 180 countries and half a century of data, the levels of carbon emissions per capita that maximise life expectancy fall within a tight band averaging only 6.6 tonnes—considerably less than wealthier countries emit per person. Various tests fail to break down the curves and, although the authors remain cautious, the stability since 1960 offers implications for the carbon budget leading up to 2050. This is the first time these curves have been contextualised against established climate science, with timely implications for international negotiations on sustainability and development.     

The Clean Development Mechanism and Sustainable Development in China's Electricity Sector

Abstract

The Clean Development Mechanism, a flexibility mechanism contained in the Kyoto Protocol, offers China an important tool to attract investment in clean energy technology and processes into its electricity sector. The Chinese electricity sector places centrally in the country's economy and environment, being a significant contributor to the acid rain and air pollution problems that plague many of China's cities and regions, and therefore a focus of many related energy and environmental policies. China's electricity sector has also been the subject of a number of economic analyses that have showed that it contains the highest potential for clean energy investment through the Clean Development Mechanism of any economic sector in China. This mechanism, through the active participation from investors in more industrialized countries, can help alleviate the environmental problems attributable to electricity generation in China through advancing such technology as wind electricity generation, clean coal technology, high efficient natural gas electricity generation, or utilization of coal mine methane. In this context, the Clean Development Mechanism also compliments a range of environmental and energy policies which are strategizing to encourage the sustainable development of China's economy.