Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The value of the environment – Is it a matter of approach?

This paper discusses why estimates of the benefits of reduced air pollution differ in accordance with the approach used. Estimates based on bottom-up studies of the damage costs related to air pollution usually turn out much lower than estimates based on assessments of the utility of reduced air pollution, obtained for instance by willingness to pay assessments. This is usually explained by the fact that the willingness to pay approach includes the utility aspect of non-market values, and for this reason, it is often preferred to the damage cost approach. This is, however, not the whole story. The paper shows why alternative approaches should not be considered as being in conflict, but rather as means to get supplementary information necessary to put a value on environmental quality. Information from bottom-up assessments of damage costs and from studies of the willingness to pay is used in a macroeconomic model to carry out an evaluation of the social costs of energy saving measures in Hungary.     

Heavy metal concentration in fish tissues inhabiting waters of “Buško Blato” reservoar (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Heavy metals concentration (mercury, lead, cadmium, arsenic, copper, zinc and chromium) in tissues (muscles, liver, kidney and gonads) of Dalmatian barbelgudgeon, the nase, the souffie and brown trout, inhabiting waters of Busko Blato reservoir in Bosnia and Herzegovina, has been determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The meat of the tested fish sorts does not contain elevated concentration of most analyzed heavy metals with exception of lead (higher than MAC in Italy, Germany and Denmark) and mercury (in muscles of brown trout higher than MAC in most countries). The lowest level of all heavy metals is always detected in gonads, with higher values in fry compared to milt for copper, zinc, chromium and arsenic. The highest copper concentration is observed in the liver from the souffie which is suggested as a suitable biomonitor for copper intoxication. In muscles of all fish sorts, lead was always present in much higher concentration than cadmium, while in kidneys of most fish sorts, lead and cadmium concentrations were similar. We showed that bioaccumulation of some heavy metals in the fish sorts analyzed is tissue and sex dependent. Also, we concluded that the small water exchange in reversible shallow reservoir does not induce elevated concentration of heavy metals in fish tissues inhabiting Busko Blato.     

Investigative monitoring within the European Water Framework Directive: a coastal blast furnace slag disposal, as an example

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) establishes a framework for the protection of estuarine and coastal waters, with the most important objective being to achieve 'good ecological status' for all waters, by 2015. Hence, Member States are establishing programmes for the monitoring of water quality status, through the assessment of ecological and chemical elements. These monitoring programmes can be of three types: surveillance monitoring; operational monitoring (both undertaken on a routine basis); and investigative monitoring (carried out where the reason of any exceedance for ecological and chemical status is unknown). Until now, nothing has been developed in relation to investigative monitoring and no clear guidance exists for this type of monitoring, as it must be tackled on a 'case-by-case' basis. Consequently, the present study uses slag disposal from a blast furnace, into a coastal area, as a case-study in the implementation of investigative monitoring, according to the WFD.In order to investigate the potential threat of such slags, this contribution includes: a geophysical study, to determine the extent of the disposal area; sediment analysis; a chemical metal analysis; and an ecotoxicological study (including a Microtox test and an amphipod bioassay). The results show that metal concentrations are several times above the background concentration. However, only one of the stations showed toxicity after acute toxicological tests, with the benthic communities being in a good status. The approaches used here show that contaminants are not bioavailable and that no management actions are required with the slags.     

Simplified determination of lipophilic metabolites of nonylphenol ethoxylates: method development and application in aqueous samples from Buenos Aires, Argentina

In the present work we have developed an analytical methodology for the determination of nonylphenol (NP) and nonylphenol mono- and di-ethoxylates (NP1EO and NP2EO) in water samples. The applicability of this methodology was proved by means of the analysis of environmentally relevant aqueous samples from Buenos Aires. This constitutes a starting point for a rigorous assessment of the incidence of NPnEO surfactants in Argentina, as only very few, qualitative or semi-quantitative data on the occurrence of these compounds in local systems were available up to this time. Enrichment of the analytes was carried out by solid-phase extraction on a C-18 sorbent, followed by elution with ethyl acetate. Normal-phase high performance liquid chromatography on an amino-silica column and fluorescence detection at excitation-emission wavelengths of 230-300 nm were employed for separation and quantification of the analytes. Confirmation of peak assignment in selected real samples was performed by off-line coupling HPLC with GC-MS analysis. A non-polar GC capillary column was used, and a characteristic peak pattern was obtained for the alkyl chain isomers of each ethoxylated homologue and NP. GC-MS analyses yielded in all cases purity levels higher than 80% for the HPLC collected fractions. The elevated concentrations found for the estrogenic metabolites of NPnEO are in accordance with an unrestricted use of this class of non-ionic surfactants in the country.     

The comparison of heavy metal accumulation ratios of some fish species in Enne Dame Lake (Kütahya/Turkey)

The metal accumulation levels for muscle, skin, gill, liver and intestine tissues of some Cyprinidae species (Carassius carassius, Condrostoma nasus, Leuciscus cephalus and Alburnus alburnus) in Enne Dame Lake (Kütahya/Turkey), which is mostly fed by hot spring waters, were investigated. Analyses were performed for copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), cobalt (Co), magnesium (Mg), nickel (Ni), chrome (Cr) and boron (B) using inductively coupled plasma-optic emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES), and cadmium (Cd) using atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS) utilizing microwave digestion techniques. The concentrations of the heavy metals found in the fish varied in the follow ing ranges: Cu: < DL-7.04, Zn: 6.96-357.25, Mn: < DL-20.70, Ni: < DL-6.21, Fe: 9.62-2500.33, Cr: < DL-1.74, Co: < DL-0.54, Cd: 0.01-0.27 and Mg: 197.44-904.90 mg/kg wet weight. While B had the second highest concentration in the water of the lake, it was not encountered in any tissue of the investigated species. In all tissues and the species, While the bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) of Mn, Zn, Fe and Cu were remarkably high, the BAFs of Mg, Cr, Co, and B were also fairly low or none. Although the heavy metal accumulation levels for the muscle were generally lower than other tissues, there were some exceptions. Cd level in the muscle of C. carassius was higher than the permissible limit stated by Turkish legislation, FAO and WHO. The mean metal amounts for all the investigated tissues and species are statistically compared and discussed in this study.     

Effect of sampling effort and sampling frequency on the composition of the planktonic crustacean assemblage: a case study of the river Danube

Although numerous studies have focused on the seasonal dynamics of riverine zooplankton, little is known about its short-term variation. In order to examine the effects of sampling frequency and sampling effort, microcrustacean samples were collected at daily intervals between 13 June and 21 July of 2007 in a parapotamal side arm of the river Danube, Hungary. Samples were also taken at biweekly intervals from November 2006 to May 2008. After presenting the community dynamics, the effect of sampling effort was evaluated with two different methods; the minimal sample size was also estimated. We introduced a single index (potential dynamic information loss; to determine the potential loss of information when sampling frequency is reduced. The formula was calculated for the total abundance, densities of the dominant taxa, adult/larva ratios of copepods and for two different diversity measures. Results suggest that abundances may experience notable fluctuations even within 1 week, as do diversities and adult/larva ratios.     

Heavy metals in bottom sediments of Lake Umbozero in Murmansk Region, Russia

Sediment cores collected from different locations of Lake Umbozero were studied with respect to concentration and mobility of trace and heavy metals Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, U, and Zn. Lake Umbozero is the second largest lake in the Murmansk Region and subjected to contamination by air-borne emissions and river transportation from the nearby metallurgical and mining industries. Unlike its neighboring, more industry-prone Lake Imandra, Lake Umbozero is relatively unexplored with respect to its state of pollution. In our study, metal distribution in sediments was found to vary with respect to the cores, although in general the concentrations were at the same level throughout the lake indicating uniform horizontal distribution of metals. When compared to Lake Imandra, the concentrations of most of the metals studied were significantly lower and represented the levels in sediments measured in lakes of Kola Peninsula located further off from industrial pollutant sources. An exception was Pb the concentration of which was at the same level as in Lake Imandra, probably due to long-distance transport. Sediment layers were subjected to four-step sequential extraction procedure to reveal the metal distribution in soluble, exchangeable, acid-soluble, and residual fractions. Indicative of their potential higher lability, Mn, U, and Zn were generally found in exchangeable fraction; as also Mn and U extensively in the acid-soluble fraction.     

Estimation of pollutant partition in sandy soils with different water contents

The objectives of this work were: (1) to identify an isotherm model to relate the contaminant contents in the gas phase with those in the solid and non-aqueous liquid phases; (2) to develop a methodology for the estimation of the contaminant distribution in the different phases of the soil; and (3) to evaluate the influence of soil water content on the contaminant distribution in soil. For sandy soils with negligible contents of clay and natural organic matter, contaminated with benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, trichloroethylene (TCE), and perchloroethylene (PCE), it was concluded that: (1) Freundlich’s model showed to be adequate to relate the contaminant contents in the gas phase with those in the solid and non-aqueous liquid phases; (2) the distribution of the contaminants in the different phases present in the soil could be estimated with differences lower than 10% for 83% of the cases; and (3) an increase of the soil water content led to a decrease of the amount of contaminant in the solid and non-aqueous liquid phases, increasing the amount in the other phases.     

Total metal levels in crayfish Astacus leptodactylus (Eschscholtz, 1823), and surface sediments in Lake Terkos, Turkey

The aim of this study was to determine the total metal accumulation (aluminium, copper, manganese, lead, cadmium and iron) in different organs and eggs of Astacus leptodactylus (Eschscholtz, 1823) and sediments total metal contents (aluminium, copper, manganese, lead, cadmium, iron, zinc, chromium, nickel) in Lake Terkos. Water and sediment samples were collected from two stations at two different depths (1 and 2 m) of Lake Terkos in May 2008. Crayfish samples were collected by trammel net at the same region. Primary hydrographic conditions, such as temperature (13.6–19.4°C), salinity (0.27–0.34‰), dissolved oxygen (7.04–12.30 mg l^???1) and pH (7.42–8.51), were recorded for each sampling point. Moreover, the total organic carbon (1.65–5.44%) and the total calcium carbonate contents (19.44–41.16%) of sediment samples were determined. According to the Turkish Food Codex (J Zool 26:283–288, 2002), the maximum allowable Pb and Cd levels in crayfish are 0.5 mg/kg wet weight. Accordingly, the Pb and Cd levels determined in A. leptodactylus samples are below this limit. However, when compared with the acceptable metal limits defined by WHO, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Ministry of Agriculture in United Kingdom (UK), it is clear that the Cu level is at the limit and the Cd results exceed the limit. When the metal contents in sediment samples from Lake Terkos are examined, it is seen that the Al, Fe, Mn, Ni and Cu contents are lower while Zn, Cr, Cd and Pb contents are higher than the crustal average values. The high values draw attention to the land-based domestic and industrial inputs. Lake Terkos sediments have high enrichment factors (EF) of Zn, Cr, Cd and Pb metals which corroborate this result. The low EFs of Fe, Ni and Cu are due to the natural (terrigeneous) inputs. Additionally, there is no Al, Fe, Ni and Cu metal enrichment in these lake sediments because of the low contamination factor (CF) values. However, it is moderately contaminated by Zn, Cr and Pb, and heavily contaminated by Cd.