Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The value of the environment – Is it a matter of approach?

This paper discusses why estimates of the benefits of reduced air pollution differ in accordance with the approach used. Estimates based on bottom-up studies of the damage costs related to air pollution usually turn out much lower than estimates based on assessments of the utility of reduced air pollution, obtained for instance by willingness to pay assessments. This is usually explained by the fact that the willingness to pay approach includes the utility aspect of non-market values, and for this reason, it is often preferred to the damage cost approach. This is, however, not the whole story. The paper shows why alternative approaches should not be considered as being in conflict, but rather as means to get supplementary information necessary to put a value on environmental quality. Information from bottom-up assessments of damage costs and from studies of the willingness to pay is used in a macroeconomic model to carry out an evaluation of the social costs of energy saving measures in Hungary.     

Heavy metal concentration in fish tissues inhabiting waters of “Buško Blato” reservoar (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Heavy metals concentration (mercury, lead, cadmium, arsenic, copper, zinc and chromium) in tissues (muscles, liver, kidney and gonads) of Dalmatian barbelgudgeon, the nase, the souffie and brown trout, inhabiting waters of Busko Blato reservoir in Bosnia and Herzegovina, has been determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The meat of the tested fish sorts does not contain elevated concentration of most analyzed heavy metals with exception of lead (higher than MAC in Italy, Germany and Denmark) and mercury (in muscles of brown trout higher than MAC in most countries). The lowest level of all heavy metals is always detected in gonads, with higher values in fry compared to milt for copper, zinc, chromium and arsenic. The highest copper concentration is observed in the liver from the souffie which is suggested as a suitable biomonitor for copper intoxication. In muscles of all fish sorts, lead was always present in much higher concentration than cadmium, while in kidneys of most fish sorts, lead and cadmium concentrations were similar. We showed that bioaccumulation of some heavy metals in the fish sorts analyzed is tissue and sex dependent. Also, we concluded that the small water exchange in reversible shallow reservoir does not induce elevated concentration of heavy metals in fish tissues inhabiting Busko Blato.     

Fungal spores from Pleosporales in the atmosphere of urban and rural locations in Portugal

Fungal spores are a significant fraction of the atmospheric bioparticles (bioaerosols) and many species are capable of inducing the production of specific immunoglobulin E (IgE), aggravating the clinical symptoms of allergic respiratory diseases in sensitized individuals. The aim of this work was to evaluate the distribution of potentially allergenic Pleosporales spores in two locations with different urbanization indexes, characterizing its seasonal pattern. The seasonal distribution of several spore types belonging to the Pleosporales (Alternaria, Drechslera, Epicoccum, Paraphaeosphaeria, Pithomyces, Pleospora and Stemphylium) in Amares (rural area) and Porto (urban area) was continually studied from January 2005 to December of 2007, using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps. Alternaria was the most abundant fungal spore type found in the atmosphere of Amares and Porto. This fungal type, together with Drechslera, Epicoccum, Pithomyces and Stemphylium, was mainly present during summer. Nevertheless, Leptosphaeria, Pleospora and Venturia spores were detected during winter and spring, while Paraphaeosphaeria spores were also observed during summer and autumn. These different seasonal patterns were responsible for the expansion of the exposure period for the Alt a 1 allergen. The concentration of the studied spore types was higher in the rural area than in the urban one, with exception for Pleospora and Drechslera. According to the correlations with meteorological factors, the selected fungal spores can be divided into two groups: (i) Alternaria, Drechslera, Epicoccum, Pithomyces and Stemphylium presented positive correlations with temperature and negative correlations with relative humidity and rainfall; (ii) Leptosphaeria, Paraphaeosphaeria, Pleospora and Venturia presented a contrary behavior. Usually, the occurrence of the Alt a 1 allergen has been associated with the presence of airborne Alternaria spores; the present work follows the seasonal distribution of other fungal spore species known to contain this molecule. The widespread occurrence of Alt a 1 plays an important role in the incidence and aggravation of allergic disorders.     

Water quality evaluation of two interconnected dam lakes with field-captured and laboratory-acclimated fish, <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Cyprinus carpio</Emphasis>

Karakaya and Sultansuyu Dam Lakes, located in the eastern part of Turkey, are important water sources, both for irrigation and fishery. The main goal of the study was to investigate water qualities of dam lakes using a set of biomarkers in the fish Cyprinus carpio. For this aim, field sample and laboratory-acclimated fish were compared to identify changes in selected biomarkers. The activities of ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase, glutathione S-transferase, glutathione reductase, and carboxylesterase were determined in liver samples. Also, plasma and liver lactate dehydrogenase, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase activities were assayed. Brain acetylcholinesterase and carboxylesterase activities were also determined. The hepatosomatic index and condition factors were calculated. Plasma vitellogenin assays were evaluated for the presence of xenoestrogen. Physicochemical values of water samples showed the existence of eutrophication risk, and also, some chemicals in both lakes were determined to be over tolerable limits. The comparisons of samples from both dam lake and laboratory-acclimated fish showed that the lakes may be at risk of pollution by some xenobiotics, namely xenoestrogens and acetylcholinesterase-inhibiting agents.     

Heavy metal pattern and solute concentration in soils along the oldest highway of the world – the AVUS Autobahn

Highways and main roads are a potential source of contamination for the surrounding environment. High traffic rates result in elevated heavy metal concentrations in road runoff, soil and water seepage, which has attracted much attention in the recent past. Nonetheless, investigations of pollutants in roadside soils are still a subject of major interest due to the rapid development of traffic systems and increasing traffic all over the world. The accumulation of the heavy metals Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn in soils along the oldest federal highway of the world has been studied by sampling a roadside transect of 125 by 10?m. In addition, heavy metal concentrations of Pb, Cd, Zn, Cu, Ni and Cr in soil solutions from different distances (2.5, 5 and 10?m) from the hard shoulder of the highway and from three soil depths (10, 30, and 50?cm) were investigated. The results show that heavy metal concentrations are up to 20 times increased compared to the geochemical background levels and a reference site of 800-m distance from the roadside. Soil matrix concentrations in the topsoil (0-10?cm) mostly exceeded the precautionary values of the German Federal Soil Protection and Contamination Ordinance (BBodSchV). The concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn in the soil matrix tended to decrease with distance from the roadside edge, whereas the concentrations in the soil solution increased at a distance of 10?m onwards due to a lower soil pH. Because of both high pH values and a high sorption capacity of the soils, soil solution concentrations seldom exceeded the trigger values of the German Federal Soil Protection and Contamination Ordinance (BBodSchV) for transferring soil solution to groundwater.     

Changes in water quality in agricultural catchments after deployment of wastewater treatment plant

Insufficient wastewater remediation in small communities and nonpoint source pollution are the key factors in determining the water quality of small streams in an agricultural landscape. Despite the current extensive construction of municipal wastewater treatment facilities in small communities, the level of organic substances and nutrients in the recipient catchments has not decreased in many areas. This paper analyzes the changes in the water quality of the small streams after the deployment of wastewater treatment plants that were designed to address sources of pollution from small municipalities. The analysis is based on the results from a water quality monitoring network in the small watersheds in the Czech Republic. Five rural catchments with one dominant municipal pollution source, where a wastewater treatment plant was deployed during the monitoring period, were selected according to a predefined set of criteria, from a series of 317 profiles. Basic water quality indicators were selected for the assessment: O₂, BOD-5, COD, TOC, conductivity, NH₄-N, NO₂-N, NO₃-N, PT, and PO₄-P. Results of the analysis showed that the simple deployment of the water treatment facilities at these streams often did not lead to a reduction of contamination in the streams. The expected post-deployment changes, namely, a significant and permanent reduction of stream contamination, occurred only in one catchment, whereas in the remainder of the catchments, only marginal changes or even increased concentrations of the contaminants were detected. As the critical factors that determined the efficiency of wastewater treatment were studied, the need for the consideration of the local conditions during the design of the facility, particularly regarding the size of the catchments, initial level of contamination, proper system of operation, and process optimization of the treatment facility, emerged as the important factor.