Linking Models of Land Use,Resources, and Economy to Simulate the Development of Mountain Regions (ALPSCAPE)

We present a framework of a scenario-based model that simulates the development of the municipality of Davos (Swiss Alps). We illustrate our method with the calculation of the scenario for 2050 “Decrease in subsidies for mountain agriculture and liberalization of markets.” The main objective was to link submodels of land-use allocation (regression-based approach), material and energy flows submodels (Material and Energy Flux Analysis), and economic submodels (Input–Output Analysis). Letting qualitative and quantitative information flow from one submodel to the next, following the storyline describing a scenario, has proven to be suitable for linking submodels. The succession of the submodels is then strongly dependent on the scenario. Qualitative information flows are simulated with microsimulations of actor choices. Links between the submodels show different degrees of robustness: although the links involving microsimulations are the weakest, the uncertainty introduced by the land-use allocation model is actually advantageous because it allows one possible change in the landscape in the future to be simulated. The modeling results for the scenario here presented show that the disappearance of agriculture only marginally affects the region’s factor income, but that the consequences for the self-sufficiency rate, for various landscape-related indicators and ecosystem services, and for the economy in the long term may be considerable. These benefits compensate for agriculture’s modest direct economic value. The framework presented can potentially be applied to any region and scenario. This framework provides a basis for a learning package that allows potential detrimental consequences of regional development to be anticipated at an early stage.     

Characterisation of projectiles composed of depleted uranium

Projectiles suspected to be composed of depleted uranium (DU) were found in Kosovo. Their properties were analysed using alpha and gamma ray spectrometry, mass spectrometry and electron microscopy. They were found to be composed of DU with small amounts of other elements such as Ti. 236U was detected in the penetrators, reflecting the use of reprocessed fuel. No transuranium elements were detected. The typical external dose rate meter is not the best option for mapping the location of penetrators from the ground. Monte Carlo calculations were performed in estimating possible skin doses. Penetrators in long-lasting contact with skin may cause a notable equivalent dose to skin.     

“Alternative futures”: a methodology for integrated sustainability considerations,the case of Nuremberg West,Germany

In the context of the desire to steer urban transformation towards sustainability transition, the development of proposals for alternative futures assists policy-makers and practitioners in focusing on impact by organising the various drivers, particularly spatial ones that cause an interactive urban system to transit. This paper presents the methodology that has been developed by the Chair for Urban Development, Munich University of Technology (TUM) as it was working within an inter-disciplinary research team on a project commissioned by the municipality of Nuremberg. The objective of this project was to develop ideas for regenerating the formerly industrial area of Nuremberg West (NW) under the guiding theme of sustainable urban development. This methodology focuses on the development of proposals of positive and possible transformations of NW in the year 2050 based on the analysis of economy, housing and space at various scales and a systematic assessment of trends. These alternative futures became framing and guiding narratives to internalise and anchor the debate in-between the various disciplines involved in this project.     

Managing Protected Areas Under Climate Change: Challenges and Priorities

The implementation of adaptation actions in local conservation management is a new and complex task with multiple facets, influenced by factors differing from site to site. A transdisciplinary perspective is therefore required to identify and implement effective solutions. To address this, the International Conference on Managing Protected Areas under Climate Change brought together international scientists, conservation managers, and decision-makers to discuss current experiences with local adaptation of conservation management. This paper summarizes the main issues for implementing adaptation that emerged from the conference. These include a series of conclusions and recommendations on monitoring, sensitivity assessment, current and future management practices, and legal and policy aspects. A range of spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the implementation of climate-adapted management. The adaptation process must be area-specific and consider the ecosystem and the social and economic conditions within and beyond protected area boundaries. However, a strategic overview is also needed: management at each site should be informed by conservation priorities and likely impacts of climate change at regional or even wider scales. Acting across these levels will be a long and continuous process, requiring coordination with actors outside the “traditional” conservation sector. To achieve this, a range of research, communication, and policy/legal actions is required. We identify a series of important actions that need to be taken at different scales to enable managers of protected sites to adapt successfully to a changing climate.     

Expedient Metrics to Describe Plant Community Change Across Gradients of Anthropogenic Influence

Human influence associated with land use may cause considerable biodiversity losses, namely in oceanic islands such as the Azores. Our goal was to identify plant indicator species across two gradients of increasing anthropogenic influence and management (arborescent and herbaceous communities) and determine similarity between plant communities of uncategorized vegetation plots to those in reference gradients using metrics derived from R programming. We intend to test and provide an expedient way to determine the conservation value of a given uncategorized vegetation plot based on the number of native, endemic, introduced, and invasive indicator species present. Using the metric IndVal, plant taxa with a significant indicator value for each community type in the two anthropogenic gradients were determined. A new metric, ComVal, was developed to assess the similarity of an uncategorized vegetation plot toward a reference community type, based on (i) the percentage of pre-defined indicator species from reference communities present in the vegetation plots, and (ii) the percentage of indicator species, specific to a given reference community type, present in the vegetation plot. Using a data resampling approach, the communities were randomly used as training or validation sets to classify vegetation plots based on ComVal. The percentage match with reference community types ranged from 77 to 100 % and from 79 to 100 %, for herbaceous and arborescent vegetation plots, respectively. Both IndVal and ComVal are part of a suite of useful tools characterizing plant communities and plant community change along gradients of anthropogenic influence without a priori knowledge of their biology and ecology.     

Complex genetic structure of a euryhaline marine fish in temporarily open/closed estuaries from the wider Gulf of Aden

Temporarily open/closed estuaries (TOCEs) are major ecosystems of the Indian Ocean coastal zones. Their functioning is tightly linked to climatic events such as monsoons and storms, and their mouth can close up for prolonged and variable periods of time, thus limiting their connectivity with the marine environment. Two types of genetic markers (i.e., mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene and microsatellites) were used to assess the genetic structure of 288 individuals of Terapon jarbua, a widely distributed fish species in the wider Gulf of Aden. Firstly, the hypothesis of panmixia was tested. Then, alternative hypotheses were investigated to explain the population genetic structure of T. jarbua: could it be shaped by (1) regional biogeographic barriers (i.e., Socotra Island vs. mainland Yemen) and/or (2) the particular functioning of TOCEs in relation to the species life cycle and particular physical ocean parameters? On one hand, the polymorphism of the COI inferred (1) a high haplotype diversity and a reduced nucleotide diversity over the whole data set and (2) a “star-like” shape of the haplotype network, thus suggesting a population expansion after local extinctions during the Pleistocene glaciations. On a second hand, the genotyping of eight microsatellites showed a significant genetic differentiation between T. jarbua populations in the wider Gulf of Aden (F _ST = 0.035, p < 0.01), and thus, the panmixia hypothesis was rejected. Analyses of molecular variance results did not show any significant structure between Socotra Island and mainland Yemen and thus did not support the role of biogeographic barriers in structuring T. jarbua populations. Significant multi-locus deficits in heterozygotes at particular locations displaying high levels of F _IS were recorded. It was suggested that a possible Wahlund effect took place in those TOCEs which could gather several cohorts of larvae stemming from different marine subpopulations over the sampled area. The present study emphasized the uniqueness of each TOCE as a potential reservoir of biodiversity and the urgent need for a better conservation program of those estuaries in the region, in order to avoid habitat fragmentation and permanent closure of those nursery areas by human activities.     

A Call for Urgent Monitoring of Food and Water Security Based on Relevant Indicators for the Arctic

This perspective paper argues for an urgent need to monitor a set of 12 concrete, measurable indicators of food and water security in the Arctic over time. Such a quantitative indicator approach may be viewed as representing a reductionist rather than a holistic perspective, but is nevertheless necessary for actually knowing what reality aspects to monitor in order to accurately understand, quantify, and be able to project critical changes to food and water security of both indigenous and non-indigenous people in the Arctic. More relevant indicators may be developed in the future, taking us further toward reconciliation between reductionist and holistic approaches to change assessment and understanding. However, the potential of such further development to improved holistic change assessment is not an argument not to urgently start to monitor and quantify the changes in food and water security indicators that are immediately available and adequate for the Arctic context.     

Climate change mitigation policy paradigms—national objectives and alignments

The aim of this paper is to assess how policy goals in relation to the promotion of green growth, energy security, pollution control and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions have been aligned in policies that have been implemented in selected countries during the last decades as a basis for discussing how a multi objective policy paradigm can contribute to future climate change mitigation. The paper includes country case studies from Brazil, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, South Korea and the United States covering renewable energy options, industry, transportation, the residential sector and cross-sectoral policies. These countries and regions together contribute more than two thirds of global GHG emissions. The paper finds that policies that are nationally driven and that have multiple objectives, including climate-change mitigation, have been widely applied for decades in both developing countries and industrialised countries. Many of these policies have a long history, and adjustments have taken place based on experience and cost effectiveness concerns. Various energy and climate-change policy goals have worked together in these countries, and in practice a mix of policies reflecting specific priorities and contexts have been pursued. In this way, climate-change mitigation has been aligned with other policy objectives and integrated into broader policy packages, though in many cases specific attention has not been given to the achievement of large GHG emission reductions. Based on these experiences with policy implementation, the paper highlights a number of key coordination and design issues that are pertinent to the successful joint implementation of several energy and climate-change policy goals.