Climate Change and Local Pollution Effects – An Integrated Approach

Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed.     

The impact of prenatal diagnosis on the occurrence of chromosome abnormalities

From the public health point of view, several formal attempts have been made to measure the impact of prenatal diagnosis (PND) on the incidence of Down's Syndrome (DS), but the results have varied widely. The impact of PND (reduction in the birth rate of chromosomally abnormal neonates) is related to utilization rates but quantitative estimates of this have not been established. In a three-year (1981–1983) total population study from Queensland, Australia, we present results to measure the impact of a voluntary PND programme on the birth incidence of DS, and also other chromosomally abnormal births. Utilization rates for the PND service were 15·5 per cent in that population of mothers 35 years and over. Numbers and rates of all cases of chromosomal abnormalities are presented, subclassified by type of diagnosis–-either by PND or by clinical diagnosis after birth. For the total population, 7·3 per cent of cases of DS were detected prenatally, and 15·4 per cent of all chromosome abnormalities. (A method for measuring the impact of PND is described.) Using this in conjunction with our demographic data, we estimate that with a 15 per cent utilization rate of PND by older mothers, 14 per cent of DS births can be prevented in this age group, or a 5 per cent overall reduction can be achieved if mothers of all ages are considered. One index–-the ratio of the percentage of DS births which are preventable compared with the population utilization rates of PND–-has potential for widespread use. Queensland data for this ratio is 0·34, a figure consistent with that from other studies. Thus a 3·5 per cent drop in the overall DS birth rate may be expected for each 10 per cent increase in the utilization rates of PND for mothers of 35 years and over. A diagram is presented which may serve as a model for improved data collection and better impact estimates in the future.     

Phenotype-dependent arrival time and its consequences in a migratory bird

Arrival times for migratory animals can be viewed as the result of an optimization process of costs and benefits of early arrival, and when the cost and benefit functions of early arrival depend on phenotypic quality, this will result in phenotype-dependent optimal arrival times. This hypothesis was tested for males of the migratory and sexually size-dimorphic barn swallow Hirundo rustica. The major cost of early arrival is poor environmental conditions which resulted in mortality of short-tailed early-arriving males in one year. The major benefits of early arrival are higher mating success, enhanced reproductive success, improved recruitment rates for offspring, and enhanced quality of the mate acquired. Annual variation in male arrival date is related to weather conditions at the breeding grounds, but also to some extent to weather conditions in the African winter quarters. Individual variation in arrival time can be explained by phenotype-dependent cost and benefit functions of early arrival. Male barn swallows with long tail ornaments arrived earlier than short-tailed males. The costs of early arrival should be particularly high under poor environmental conditions and lead to a stronger negative relationship between arrival date and phenotypic quality in years with poor environmental conditions. This prediction was confirmed by a stronger negative relationship between male tail length and date of arrival in years when arrival was relatively late because of poor weather. A female preference for early-arriving males may result in acquisition of good genes for optimal migratory behaviour, if migratory direction and extent have a genetic basis as shown in a number of different bird species.     

Female preference for apparently symmetrical male sexual ornaments in the barn swallow Hirundo rustica

Summary The outermost tail feathers of barn swallows Hirundo rustica apparently reliably signal the quality of males, because individuals with the longest tails have the lowest degree of fluctuating asymmetry (random deviations from symmetry in the otherwise symmetrical tail trait) despite the size of their secondary sexual character. I experimentally tested whether females preferred males with symmetrical tails without altering the aerodynamic properties of birds by painting the tips of the outermost tail feathers with white or black correction fluid. Unmated males were randomly assigned to one of four treatments: (i) asymmetrical tails, where the outermost 20 mm of one tail feather was painted white and the other black; (ii) symmetrical tails where the outermost 10 mm of both tail feathers was painted white (symmetric I); (iii) symmetrical tails where the outermost 20 mm of both tail feathers was painted white (symmetric II); or (iv) controls where the outermost 20 mm of both tail feathers was painted black. The experimental treatment affected the duration of the premating period since it took longer for asymmetrical males to acquire a mate than for either group of symmetrical males or control males. This gave rise to a delayed start of laying among males with apparently asymmetrical tails. The seasonal production of fledglings therefore decreased from control males through males with either symmetrical treatment to males with the asymmetrical treatment. Females therefore pay direct attention to the level of fluctuating asymmetry in secondary sexual characters even when the asymmetry does not affect the aerodynamic properties of males.