Multi-elemental EDXRF mapping of polluted soil from former horticultural land

The distribution of major and trace elements was systematically investigated by use of energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (EDXRF) on a former horticultural soil. The purpose of the study was to combine mapping of soil element concentration levels with multivariate statistics for characterisation of soil metal pollution in relation to previous and present land use. A 1-ha study site was chosen from a former horticulture where a previous preliminary survey indicated increased concentration levels of toxic elements. The soil was sampled from the top 20 cm of the soil surface in a 10 x 10-m grid-like pattern covering the 1-ha study area. In addition, three soil profiles were studied. The elemental composition of the soil samples was investigated by EDXRF while the composition of aqueous soil extracts was determined by total reflection X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (TXRF). Based on mapping and multivariate statistically analysis of the data obtained by EDXRF, most elements were found in almost constant concentration levels in the top soil throughout the investigated site. However, the contents of the toxic elements Zn, Cu, As, and Pb were found to vary significantly within the area. Hence, the samples with high accumulations of As also contained relatively high amounts of Zn, Cu, and Pb, which indicates that toxic-element-containing pesticides have been applied to the soil surface in the area of the former green houses at the study site. The Pb/As mass ratio in the soil indicates that PbHAsO3 was the preferential lead arsenate used for pest management at the investigated site, while Cu as Bordeaux liquid (CuSO4) and Zn were applied to minimize the leaf damaging effect from the former compounds. Calculations indicated that As annually was applied to the soil in the former greenhouses in doses up to 4 kg As/ha while Pb had been annually applied in doses up to 12 kg Pb/ha. The enrichment of Zn, Cu, As and Pb was greatest in the top 20 cm of the soil and no anthropogenic enrichment of these elements occurred below a depth of 50 cm, indicating that the toxic elements are rather immobile in this soil. The results of this investigation suggest that EDXRF used in combination with multivariate statistics is a strong tool for multi-element mapping of elemental contents, sources and mobility in the terrestrial environment.     

Identifying optimal agricultural countermeasure strategies for a hypothetical contamination scenario using the strategy model

A spatially implemented model designed to assist the identification of optimal countermeasure strategies for radioactively contaminated regions is described. Collective and individual ingestion doses for people within the affected area are estimated together with collective exported ingestion dose. A range of countermeasures are incorporated within the model, and environmental restrictions have been included as appropriate. The model evaluates the effectiveness of a given combination of countermeasures through a cost function which balances the benefit obtained through the reduction in dose with the cost of implementation. The optimal countermeasure strategy is the combination of individual countermeasures (and when and where they are implemented) which gives the lowest value of the cost function. The model outputs should not be considered as definitive solutions, rather as interactive inputs to the decision making process. As a demonstration the model has been applied to a hypothetical scenario in Cumbria (UK). This scenario considered a published nuclear power plant accident scenario with a total deposition of 1.7x10(14), 1.2x10(13), 2.8x10(10) and 5.3x10(9)Bq for Cs-137, Sr-90, Pu-239/240 and Am-241, respectively. The model predicts that if no remediation measures were implemented the resulting collective dose would be approximately 36 000 person-Sv (predominantly from 137Cs) over a 10-year period post-deposition. The optimal countermeasure strategy is predicted to avert approximately 33 000 person-Sv at a cost of approximately 160 million pounds. The optimal strategy comprises a mixture of ploughing, AFCF (ammonium-ferric hexacyano-ferrate) administration, potassium fertiliser application, clean feeding of livestock and food restrictions. The model recommends specific areas within the contaminated area and time periods where these measures should be implemented.     

Linking a one-dimensional pesticide fate model to a three-dimensional groundwater model to simulate pollution risks of shallow and deep groundwater underlying fractured till

The one-dimensional pesticide fate model MACRO was loose-linked to the three-dimensional discrete fracture/matrix diffusion model FRAC3DVS to describe transport of the pesticide mecoprop in a fractured moraine till and local sand aquifer (5-5.5 m depth) overlying a regional limestone aquifer (16 m depth) at Havdrup, Denmark. Alternative approaches to describe the upper boundary in the groundwater model were examined. Field-scale simulations were run to compare a uniform upper boundary condition with a spatially variable upper boundary derived from Monte-Carlo simulations with MACRO. Plot-scale simulations were run to investigate the influence of the temporal resolution of the upper boundary conditions for fluxes in the groundwater model and the effects of different assumptions concerning the macropore/fracture connectivity between the two models. The influence of within-field variability of leaching on simulated mecoprop concentrations in the local aquifer was relatively small. A fully transient simulation with FRAC3DVS gave 20 times larger leaching to the regional aquifer compared to the case with steady-state water flow, assuming full connectivity with respect to macropores/fractures across the boundary between the two models. For fully transient simulations 'disconnecting' the macropores/fractures at the interface between the two models reduced leaching by a factor 24. A fully connected, transient simulation with FRAC3DVS, with spatially uniform upper boundary fluxes derived from a MACRO simulation with 'effective' parameters is therefore recommended for assessing leaching risks to the regional aquifer, at this, and similar sites.     

Modelling the global heat balance

A previous model of the global heat balance has been expanded by including the influence of SO₂ pollution, water content of the atmosphere and cloudiness. It was found that the previous results were not changed significantly by this expansion of the model. The conclusions set up uising the previous model were still valid: (1) it is great importance to include the buffer capacity of the sea, including its dependence on pH and the temperature; (2) it is of importance to include natural climatic variations; (3) the dominanting factor is the trend in the consumption of fossil fuel.     

Extinction risk of the endemic vascular flora of Kauai,Hawaii, based on IUCN assessments

The International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) is the world's most comprehensive information source on the global conservation status of species. Governmental agencies and conservation organizations increasingly rely on IUCN Red List assessments to develop conservation policies and priorities. Funding agencies use the assessments as evaluation criteria, and researchers use meta-analysis of red-list data to address fundamental and applied conservation science questions. However, the circa 143,000 IUCN assessments represent a fraction of the world's biodiversity and are biased in regional and organismal coverage. These biases may affect conservation priorities, funding, and uses of these data to understand global patterns. Isolated oceanic islands are characterized by high endemicity, but the unique biodiversity of many islands is experiencing high extinction rates. The archipelago of Hawaii has one of the highest levels of endemism of any floristic region; 90% of its 1367 native vascular plant taxa are classified as endemic. We used the IUCN's assessment of the complete single-island endemic (SIE) vascular plant flora of Kauai, Hawaii, to assess the proportion and drivers of decline of threatened plants in an oceanic island setting. We compared the IUCN assessments with federal, state, and other local assessments of Kauai species or taxa of conservation concern. Finally, we conducted a preliminary assessment for all 1044 native vascular plants of Hawaii based on IUCN criterion B by estimating area of occupancy, extent of occurrence, and number of locations to determine whether the pattern found for the SIE vascular flora of Kauai is comparable to the native vascular flora of the Hawaiian Islands. We compared our results with patterns observed for assessments of other floras. According to IUCN, 256 SIE vascular plant taxa are threatened with extinction and 5% are already extinct. This is the highest extinction risk reported for any flora to date. The preliminary assessment of the native vascular flora of Hawaii showed that 72% (753 taxa) is threatened. The flora of Hawaii may be one of the world's most threatened; thus, increased and novel conservation measures in the state and on other remote oceanic islands are urgently needed.     

A resource-depletion model of forest insect outbreaks

Detailed analyses of thresholded ecological interactions can improve our understanding of the transition from aperiodic to periodic dynamics. We develop a threshold model of the population dynamics of outbreaking bark beetle populations that alternate between non-epidemic and epidemic behavior. The model involves accumulation of resources during low-density periods and depletion during outbreaks. The transition between the two regimes is caused by disturbance events in the form of major tree felling by wind. The model is analyzed with particular reference to the population dynamics of the spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) in Scandinavia for which a comprehensive literature allows full parameterization. The fairly constant outbreak lengths and the highly variable waiting time between outbreaks that are seen in the historical records of this species agree well with the predictions of the model. The thresholded resource-depletion dynamics result in substantial variation in the degree of periodicity between stochastic realizations. The completely aperiodic tree colonizations are partly predictable when the timing of the irregular windfall events are known. However, the predictability of inter-outbreak periods is low due to the large variation of cases falling most frequently in the middle between the extremes of purely nonperiodic (erratic) and periodic (cyclic) fluctuations.     

Extrinsic and intrinsic controls of zooplankton diversity in lakes

Pelagic crustacean zooplankton were collected from 336 Norwegian lakes covering a wide range of latitude, altitude, lake area, mean depth, production (as chlorophyll a), and fish community structure. Mean zooplankton species richness during the ice-free season was generally low at high latitudes and altitudes. Further, lower species richness was recorded in western lakes, possibly reflecting constraints on migration and dispersal. However, despite obvious spatial limitations, geographic boundaries were only weak predictors of mean zooplankton richness. Similarly, lake surface area did not contribute positively to mean richness such as seen in other ecosystem surveys. Rather, intrinsic factors such as primary production and fish community (planktivore) structure were identified by regression analysis as the major predictors of zooplankton diversity, while a positive correlation was observed between species richness and total zooplankton biomass. However, in spite of a large number of variables included in this study, the predictive power of multiple regression models was modest (<50% variance explained), pointing to a major role for within-lake properties, as yet unidentified intrinsic forces, stochasticity, or dispersal as constraints on zooplankton diversity in these lakes.