Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.     

Reduction in Residential Chromium Following Site Remediation

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of chromate production waste site remediation on residential Cr concentrations in house dust. Twenty-three homes in Jersey City, NJ, were identified as having had high (>500 u,g/gm, median 739 u,g/gm), medium (100-400 u,g/gm, median 245 u,g/gm), or low (<100 u,g/gm, median 48 u,g/ gm) Cr in house dust during a study conducted in 19921993 prior to site remediation. House dust samples were collected on four visits from each home between November 1996 and February 1998, extracted with HNO₃, and analyzed for Cr with an inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometer. Homes that had low Cr concentrations in 1992-1993 continued to have low Cr concentrations (median 1 u,g/g). In contrast, substantial declines in Cr concentrations were found in the house dust collected from homes located near the remediated waste sites: previously high-level homes had a median of 50 u,g/g and mid-level homes had a median of 34 u,g/g. Site remediation had a beneficial effect on household loadings of Cr, since no differences in post-remediation house dust Cr concentrations were found among the three groups.     

PENN STATE URBAN RUNOFF MODEL TO PINPOINT FLOOD PEAK SOURCE LOCATION1

ABSTRACT: The Penn State Urban Runoff Model, developed in 1976, is described in this paper. Aside from locating infiltration and detention basin operation in an unconventional manner, the model includes a peak flow presentation table which identifies watershed subareas chiefly responsible for the occurrence of flooding conditions at certain points in the watershed. The results of a case study on an urban drainage basin in the Philadelphia area is discussed, and preferred sites for retention ponds are suggested. The simplicity of the Penn State model is pointed out and computer run costs between 10 and 20 percent of the corresponding cards for HEC-I and SWMM are cited.     

Biodegradation of acrylic acid polymers and oligomers by mixed microbial communities in activated sludge

The biodegradability (mineralization to carbon dioxide) of acrylic acid oligomers and polymers was studied in activated sludge obtained from continuous-flow activated sludge (CAS) systems exposed to mixtures of low molecular weight (Mw < 8000) poly(acrylic acid)s and other watesoluble polymers [poly(ethylene glycol)s] in influent wastewater. Dilute preparations of activated sludge from the CAS units were tested for their ability to mineralize acrylic acid monomer and dimer, as well as a series of model acrylic acid oligomers and polymers (Mw 500, 700, 1000, 2000, and 4500), as sole carbon and energy sources. Complete mineralization of acrylic acid monomer and dimer was observed in low-biomass sludge preparations previously exposed to the polymer mixture, based on carbon dioxide production and residual dissolved organic carbon analyses. Extensive (though incomplete) degradation was also observed for the low molecular weight acrylic acid oligomers (Mw 500 and 700), but degradation dropped off sharply for the 1000, 2000, and 4500 Mw polymers. Radiochemical (¹⁴C) data also confirmed the low degradation potential of the 1000, 2000, and 4500 Mw materials. Degradation of two commercial poly(ethylene glycol)s at 1000 and 3400 Mw was complete and comparable to that of the acrylic acid monomer and dimer. Our results indicate that mixed populations of activated sludge microorganisms can extensively metabolize acrylic acid oligomers of seven units or less. Complete mineralization, however, could be confirmed only for the monomer and dimer material, and carbon mass balance data suggested that the true molecular weight cutoff for complete biodegradation was significantly less than the 500–700 Mw range tested.     

Chapter one: exposure measurements

Determining human exposure to suspended particulate concentrations requires measurements that quantify different particle properties in microenvironments where people live, work, and play. Particle mass, size, and chemical composition are important exposure variables, and these are typically measured with time-integrated samples on filters that are later submitted to laboratory analyses. This requires substantial sample handling, quality assurance, and data reduction. Newer technologies are being developed that allow in-situ, time-resolved measurements for mass, carbon, sulfate, nitrate, particle size, and other variables. These are large measurement systems that are more suitable for fixed monitoring sites than for personal applications. Human exposure studies need to be designed to accomplish specific objectives rather than to serve too many purposes. Resources need to be divided among study design, field sampling, laboratory analysis, quality assurance, data management, and data analysis phases. Many exposure projects allocated too little to the non-measurement activities.     

Age dependence of potentially toxic elements (Sb,Cd, Pb,Ag) in human liver tissue from paediatric subjects

Toxic elements are present at low concentrations in the environment. This work was undertaken to investigate the age dependence of the liver content of selected elements in paediatric populations, as an index of internal exposure. Liver samples were collected at autopsy from 157 subjects, aged < 1 day to 6 years, as part of investigations on a possible role of Sb compounds in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). In addition to Sb, the concentrations of Ag, Cd and Pb were also determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry on the remaining digest. Comparison of 95% confidence intervals of the median concentrations of the four elements suggested that there were no differences between the two categories of cause of death, SIDS or those who had died of an identified disease. Cadmium, lead and antimony median concentrations were lower than corresponding values observed in adult populations. Silver concentrations were significantly higher at birth and decreased with age. Cadmium levels were almost negligible in neonates and infants, but increased in older children. The finding of non-negligible concentrations of both Ag and Pb in neonatal liver provides further direct evidence that these elements cross the human placental barrier. The reported data, by far the largest collection observed in subjects less than 1 year old, are the result of exposure, during pregnancy and in early childhood, to present levels of these elements in the environment. They can serve as a reference to compare post-mortem values from individuals or groups of subjects in this age range when an exposure risk is suspected and to highlight trends in human exposure.