Polynomial Surrogates for Open-Channel Flows in Random Steady State

Assessing epistemic uncertainties is considered as a milestone for improving numerical predictions of a dynamical system. In hydrodynamics, uncertainties in input parameters translate into uncertainties in simulated water levels through the shallow water equations. We investigate the ability of generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) surrogate to evaluate the probabilistic features of water level simulated by a 1-D hydraulic model (MASCARET) with the same accuracy as a classical Monte Carlo method but at a reduced computational cost. This study highlights that the water level probability density function and covariance matrix are better estimated with the polynomial surrogate model than with a Monte Carlo approach on the forward model given a limited budget of MASCARET evaluations. The gPC-surrogate performance is first assessed on an idealized channel with uniform geometry and then applied on the more realistic case of the Garonne River (France) for which a global sensitivity analysis using sparse least-angle regression was performed to reduce the size of the stochastic problem. For both cases, Galerkin projection approximation coupled to Gaussian quadrature that involves a limited number of forward model evaluations is compared with least-square regression for computing the coefficients when the surrogate is parameterized with respect to the local friction coefficient and the upstream discharge. The results showed that a gPC-surrogate with total polynomial degree equal to 6 requiring 49 forward model evaluations is sufficient to represent the water level distribution (in the sense of the \(\ell _2\) norm), the probability density function and the water level covariance matrix for further use in the framework of data assimilation. In locations where the flow dynamics is more complex due to bathymetry, a higher polynomial degree is needed to retrieve the water level distribution. The use of a surrogate is thus a promising strategy for uncertainty quantification studies in open-channel flows and should be extended to unsteady flows. It also paves the way toward cost-effective ensemble-based data assimilation for flood forecasting and water resource management.     

Chemical characterization of contact semiochemicals for host-recognition and host-acceptance by the specialist parasitoid <Emphasis Type="Italic">Cotesia plutellae</Emphasis> (Kurdjumov)

Summary. Cotesia plutellae is a specialist parasitoid of Plutella xylostella. This specificity is potentially under the control of several factors before and after oviposition. Thereby, the stimuli that lead female parasitoids to host locations and to oviposition, might be at the basis of the specificity. We explore here the response of C. plutellae females exposed to host cuticular lipids. A total cuticular lipid extract of host caterpillars was fractionated into a hydrocarbon fraction and a non-hydrocarbon fraction. Neither fraction alone had any effect on oviposition behaviour in C. plutellae but the hydrocarbon fraction alone did seem to have a positive effect on the rate of antennal contact by the females. To induce oviposition behaviour, both fractions were necessary and reflect cooperation between at least one compound in each fraction. Identification of cuticular lipids shows that hydrocarbons were dominant (77%). Non-hydrocarbon compounds were mainly represented by 15-nonacosanone (18% of the total lipid extract). This ketone is rare in insect cuticle lipids and is thought to originate from the cabbage epicuticle where it is dominant with n-C₂₉ and 14- and 15-nonacosanol also found among the cuticular lipids of the host caterpillar.     

Defining patch mosaic functional types to predict invasion patterns in a forest landscape.

Alien plant invasions contribute significantly to global changes by often affecting biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Operational methods for identifying landscape attributes that promote or constrain plant invasions are urgently needed to predict their future spread and manage them efficiently. We combined landscape and functional ecology concepts to define patch mosaic functional types (PMFTs) as groups of cells showing the same response to a plant invasion in a heterogeneous forest landscape. The invasion of a European temperate forest by the American black cherry (Prunus serotina) has been chosen as a case study. A set of variables was collected, mapped using a Geographic Information System, and analyzed with multivariate analyses to correlate landscape traits with Prunus serotina abundance in each cell of a grid overlaid on the forest. A risk index was derived and mapped for three invasion levels: seedling colonization, tree establishment, and ecosystem invasion. Five PMFTs were identified and characterized by a set of traits related to soil properties, land use, disturbance, and invasion history. Scots pine plantations on podzols were the most invasible, while cells dominated by hydromorphic or calcareous soils were the most resistant. Most colonized patch mosaics provided suitable conditions for future establishment and invasion. Being strongly spatially connected, suitable patches provide corridors for Prunus serotina to colonize new parts of the forest. Conversely, the most resistant PMFTs were spatially agglomerated in the south of the forest and could act as a barrier. Colonization, establishment, and invasion risk maps were finally obtained by combining partial risks associated with each landscape trait at the cell scale. Within a heterogeneous landscape, we defined and organized PMFTs into a hierarchy, according to their associated risk for colonization, establishment, or invasion by a given invasive species. Each hierarchical level should be associated with a management strategy aiming at reducing one or more partial risk. Monitoring safe areas, extending cutting rotations, harvesting recently colonized stands tree by tree, promoting a multilayered understory vegetation, cutting down reproducing alien trees, favoring shade-tolerant, fast-growing, native tree species, removing alien trees at the leading edge, and proposing soil enrichment or irrigation in heavily invaded areas are recommended.     

Spatial decoupling of facilitation and competition at the origin of gapped vegetation patterns

Spatially periodic vegetation patterns, forming gaps, bands, labyrinths, or spots, are characteristic of arid and semiarid landscapes. Self-organization models can explain this variety of structures within a unified conceptual framework. All these models are based on the interplay of positive and negative effects of plants on soil water, but they can be divided according to whether they assume the interactions to be mediated by water redistribution through runoff/diffusion or by plants' organs. We carried out a multi-proxy approach of the processes operating in a gapped pattern in southwest Niger dominated by a shrub species. Soil moisture within the root layer was monitored in time and space over one month of the rainy season. Soil water recharge displayed no spatial variation with respect to vegetation cover, but the stock half-life under cover was twice that of bare areas. A kernel of facilitation by the aboveground parts of shrubs was parameterized, and soil water half-life was significantly correlated to the cumulated facilitative effects of shrubs. The kernel range was found to be smaller than the canopy radius (81%). This effect of plants on soil water dynamics, probably through a reduction of evaporation by shading, is shown to be a better explanatory variable than potentially relevant soil and topography parameters. The root systems of five individuals of Combretum micranthum G. Don were excavated. Root density data were used as a proxy to parameterize a kernel function of interplant competition. The range of this kernel was larger than the canopy radius (125%). The facilitation-to-competition range ratio, reflecting the above-to-belowground ratio of plant lateral extent, was smaller than 1 (0.64), a result supporting models assuming that patterning may emerge from an adaptation of plant morphology to aridity and shallow soils by means of an extended lateral root system. Moreover, observed soil water gradients had directions opposite to those assumed by alternative mathematical models based on underground water diffusion. This study contributes to the growing awareness that combined facilitative and competitive plant interactions can induce landscape-scale patterns and shape the two-way feedback loops between environment and vegetation.     

Bioaerosol sampling by a personal rotating cup sampler CIP 10-M

High concentrations of bioaerosols containing bacterial, fungal and biotoxinic matter are encountered in many workplaces, e.g. solid waste treatment plants, waste water treatment plants and sewage networks. A personal bioaerosol sampler, the CIP 10-M (M-microbiologic), has been developed to measure worker exposure to airborne biological agents. This sampler is battery operated; it is light and easy to wear and offers full work shift autonomy. It can sample much higher concentrations than biological impactors and limits the mechanical stress on the microorganisms. Biological particles are collected in 2 ml of liquid medium inside a rotating cup fitted with radial vanes to maintain an air flow rate of 10 l min(-1) at a rotational speed of approximately 7,000 rpm. The rotating cup is made of sterilisable material. The sampled particles follow a helicoidal trajectory as they are pushed to the surface of the liquid by centrifugal force, which creates a thin vertical liquid layer. Sterile water or another collecting liquid can be used. Three particle size selectors allow health-related aerosol fractions to be sampled according to international conventions. The sampled microbiological particles can be easily recovered for counting, incubation or further biochemical analysis, e.g., for airborne endotoxins. Its physical sampling efficiency was laboratory tested and field trials were carried out in industrial waste management conditions. The results indicate satisfactory collection efficiency, whilst experimental application has demonstrated the usefulness of the CIP 10-M personal sampler for individual bioaerosol exposure monitoring.     

A double‐edged sword: Realities of artisanal and small‐scale mining for rural people in the Alaotra region of Madagascar

A growing number of people are entering the artisanal and small‐scale mining (ASM) sector worldwide. In Madagascar, millions of individuals depend on this informal activity. Through a case study in the Alaotra‐Mangoro region of Madagascar, our research aimed to understand the “bottom‐up” dynamics and ripple effects of the sector, by looking at the realities for rural communities where inhabitants are both directly and indirectly affected by ASM. We were interested in community members' and miners' perceptions of the socio‐economic and environmental impacts of ASM, and in identifying the factors attracting people living in one of the country's agricultural hubs to this activity. Our results show a wide diversity of push and pull factors leading people to enter the sector. Although many positive impacts of ASM exist for miners and communities within the vicinity of mines, most miner participants considered themselves worse off since starting to mine, highlighting the high risk and low probability of return of ASM. ASM's potential for local and national development will remain squandered if its negative impacts continue to go unmanaged. Accounting for local contexts and the ripple effects of ASM will be crucial in achieving safety and security for miners, and to tap into the benefits it may offer communities while minimising environmental damage.     

A GIS-Based Multicriteria Evaluation for Aiding Risk Management <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus pinaster</Emphasis> Ait. Forests: A Case Study in Corsican Island,Western Mediterranean Region

Forest management can benefit from decision support tools, including GIS-based multicriteria decision-aiding approach. In the Mediterranean region, Pinus pinaster forests play a very important role in biodiversity conservation and offer many socioeconomic benefits. However, the conservation of this species is affected by the increase in forest fires and the expansion of Matsucoccus feytaudi. This paper proposes a methodology based on commonly available data for assessing the values and risks of P. pinaster forests and to generating maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire and phytosanitary risk management. The criteria for assessing the values (land cover type, legislative tools for biodiversity conservation, environmental tourist sites and access routes, and timber yield) and the risks (fire and phytosanitation) of P. pinaster forests were obtained directly or by considering specific indicators, and they were subsequently aggregated by means of GIS-based multicriteria analysis. This approach was tested on the island of Corsica (France), and maps to aid in decisions pertaining to fire risk and phytosanitary risk (M. feytaudi) were obtained for P. pinaster forest management. Study results are used by the technical offices of the local administration—Corsican Agricultural and Rural Development Agency (ODARC)—for planning the conservation of P. pinaster forests with regard to fire prevention and safety and phytosanitary risks. The decision maker took part in the evaluation criteria study (weight, normalization, and classification of the values). Most suitable locations are given to target the public intervention. The methodology presented in this paper could be applied to other species and in other Mediterranean regions.