Defining patch mosaic functional types to predict invasion patterns in a forest landscape.

Alien plant invasions contribute significantly to global changes by often affecting biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Operational methods for identifying landscape attributes that promote or constrain plant invasions are urgently needed to predict their future spread and manage them efficiently. We combined landscape and functional ecology concepts to define patch mosaic functional types (PMFTs) as groups of cells showing the same response to a plant invasion in a heterogeneous forest landscape. The invasion of a European temperate forest by the American black cherry (Prunus serotina) has been chosen as a case study. A set of variables was collected, mapped using a Geographic Information System, and analyzed with multivariate analyses to correlate landscape traits with Prunus serotina abundance in each cell of a grid overlaid on the forest. A risk index was derived and mapped for three invasion levels: seedling colonization, tree establishment, and ecosystem invasion. Five PMFTs were identified and characterized by a set of traits related to soil properties, land use, disturbance, and invasion history. Scots pine plantations on podzols were the most invasible, while cells dominated by hydromorphic or calcareous soils were the most resistant. Most colonized patch mosaics provided suitable conditions for future establishment and invasion. Being strongly spatially connected, suitable patches provide corridors for Prunus serotina to colonize new parts of the forest. Conversely, the most resistant PMFTs were spatially agglomerated in the south of the forest and could act as a barrier. Colonization, establishment, and invasion risk maps were finally obtained by combining partial risks associated with each landscape trait at the cell scale. Within a heterogeneous landscape, we defined and organized PMFTs into a hierarchy, according to their associated risk for colonization, establishment, or invasion by a given invasive species. Each hierarchical level should be associated with a management strategy aiming at reducing one or more partial risk. Monitoring safe areas, extending cutting rotations, harvesting recently colonized stands tree by tree, promoting a multilayered understory vegetation, cutting down reproducing alien trees, favoring shade-tolerant, fast-growing, native tree species, removing alien trees at the leading edge, and proposing soil enrichment or irrigation in heavily invaded areas are recommended.     

Spatial decoupling of facilitation and competition at the origin of gapped vegetation patterns

Spatially periodic vegetation patterns, forming gaps, bands, labyrinths, or spots, are characteristic of arid and semiarid landscapes. Self-organization models can explain this variety of structures within a unified conceptual framework. All these models are based on the interplay of positive and negative effects of plants on soil water, but they can be divided according to whether they assume the interactions to be mediated by water redistribution through runoff/diffusion or by plants' organs. We carried out a multi-proxy approach of the processes operating in a gapped pattern in southwest Niger dominated by a shrub species. Soil moisture within the root layer was monitored in time and space over one month of the rainy season. Soil water recharge displayed no spatial variation with respect to vegetation cover, but the stock half-life under cover was twice that of bare areas. A kernel of facilitation by the aboveground parts of shrubs was parameterized, and soil water half-life was significantly correlated to the cumulated facilitative effects of shrubs. The kernel range was found to be smaller than the canopy radius (81%). This effect of plants on soil water dynamics, probably through a reduction of evaporation by shading, is shown to be a better explanatory variable than potentially relevant soil and topography parameters. The root systems of five individuals of Combretum micranthum G. Don were excavated. Root density data were used as a proxy to parameterize a kernel function of interplant competition. The range of this kernel was larger than the canopy radius (125%). The facilitation-to-competition range ratio, reflecting the above-to-belowground ratio of plant lateral extent, was smaller than 1 (0.64), a result supporting models assuming that patterning may emerge from an adaptation of plant morphology to aridity and shallow soils by means of an extended lateral root system. Moreover, observed soil water gradients had directions opposite to those assumed by alternative mathematical models based on underground water diffusion. This study contributes to the growing awareness that combined facilitative and competitive plant interactions can induce landscape-scale patterns and shape the two-way feedback loops between environment and vegetation.     

Adverse effects in wild fish living downstream from pharmaceutical manufacture discharges

A set of biochemical and histological responses was measured in wild gudgeon collected upstream and downstream of urban and pharmaceutical manufacture effluents. These individual end-points were associated to fish assemblage characterisation. Responses of biotransformation enzymes, neurotoxicity and endocrine disruption biomarkers revealed contamination of investigated stream by a mixture of pollutants. Fish from sampled sites downstream of the industrial effluent exhibited also strong signs of endocrine disruption including vitellogenin induction, intersex and male-biased sex-ratio. These individual effects were associated to a decrease of density and a lack of sensitive fish species. This evidence supports the hypothesis that pharmaceutical compounds discharged in stream are involved in recorded endocrine disruption effects and fish population disturbances and threaten disappearance of resident fish species. Overall, this study gives argument for the utilisation of an effect-based monitoring approach to assess impacts of pharmaceutical manufacture discharges on wild fish populations.     

Frailty in state-space models: application to actuarial senescence in the Dipper

Senescence, a decrease in life history traits with age, is a within-individual process. The lack of suitable methods to deal with individual heterogeneity has long impeded progress in exploring senescence in wild populations. Analyses of survival senescence are additionally complicated by the often neglected issue of imperfect detectability. To deal with both these issues, we developed state-space models to analyze capture-mark-recapture data while accounting for individual heterogeneity by incorporating random effects. We illustrated our approach by applying it to 29 years of data on breeding females in a Dipper (Cinclus cinclus) population. We highlighted patterns of age-related variation in annual survival by statistical comparisons of piecewise linear, quadratic, Gompertz, and Weibull survival models. The Gompertz model was ranked first in our set. It provided strong evidence for actuarial senescence with an onset of senescence estimated at about 2.3 years. The probability for this model to involve a frailty was 0.15, and the probability to involve an individual latent effect in detection was about 0.4. The estimated mean age at first reproduction was 1.2 years. The general case model described here in detail should encourage the reanalysis of actuarial senescence in cases where imperfect detection or individual heterogeneity is suspected.     

The Impact of Uncertainty on Banking Behavior: Evidence from the US Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Allowance Trading Program

In this paper, we study empirically whether uncertainty has an influence on trade in the US sulfur dioxide allowances market. In particular, we investigate the role of uncertainty on banking behavior. To do this, we introduce a tractable, structural model of trading permits under uncertainty. The model establishes a relation between banking behavior and risk preferences, especially prudence in the Kimball (1990) sense. We then test this model using data on allowances, for utilities submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Acid Rain Program, carried over from one year to the next. Evidence is found of imprudence, namely, utilities bank permits in order to favor higher profits. Another finding is that larger utilities do not adopt behavior significantly different from that of smaller ones. This paper was presented at the “International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Verification, Compliance & Trading” in Warsaw, Poland, September 2004, under the title “Portfolio Management of Emissions Permits and Prudence Behavior.”