Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

Situating Hazard Vulnerability: People’s Negotiations with Wildfire Environments in the U.S. Southwest

This article is based on a multimethod study designed to clarify influences on wildfire hazard vulnerability in Arizona’s White Mountains, USA. Findings reveal that multiple factors operating across scales generate socially unequal wildfire risks. At the household scale, conflicting environmental values, reliance on fire insurance and firefighting institutions, a lack of place dependency, and social vulnerability (e.g., a lack of financial, physical, and/or legal capacity to reduce risks) were found to be important influences on wildfire risk. At the regional-scale, the shift from a resource extraction to environmental amenity-based economy has transformed ecological communities, produced unequal social distributions of risks and resources, and shaped people’s social and environmental interactions in everyday life. While working-class locals are more socially vulnerable than amenity migrants to wildfire hazards, they have also been more active in attempting to reduce risks in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire. Social tensions between locals and amenity migrants temporarily dissolved immediately following the disaster, only to be exacerbated by the heightened perception of risk and the differential commitment to hazard mitigation displayed by these groups over a 2-year study period. Findings suggest that to enhance wildfire safety, environmental managers should acknowledge the environmental benefits associated with hazardous landscapes, the incentives created by risk management programs, and the specific constraints to action for relevant social groups in changing human-environmental context.     

Characterizing vulnerability to water scarcity: The case of a groundwater-dependent, rapidly urbanizing region

Groundwater overdraft is a resource management issue that poses a threat for the security of communities. Impacts of groundwater overdraft are influenced by the biophysical and social contexts of water management. This paper presents a method for assessing vulnerability to water scarcity in spatial terms using biophysical and social indicators. A geographic information system was used to establish areas of vulnerability based upon hydrologic variability in water resource availability within a groundwater basin, three types of water management systems, and 10 sociodemographic characteristics. Our study area is in the rapidly urbanizing Arizona Central Highlands, located 150 km north of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA. Results indicate that the most biophysically vulnerable places do not necessarily intersect with the most vulnerable populations and that local differences in vulnerability are interrelated, rather than independent, outcomes in a process of socioenvironmental transformation. Vulnerability is influenced by laws that deny access to local surface waters and lead to dependence on fossil groundwater, and by economic reliance on urbanization. Localities attempt to reduce vulnerability through the development of community water systems and the expansion of water frontiers. While such strategies may reduce local vulnerability, they are not sustainable solutions because they transfer risks to other places, and thus contribute to vulnerability elsewhere.     

Life cycle assessment of borate-treated lumber with comparison to galvanized steel framing

A cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment was done to identify the environmental impacts related to borate-treated lumber used as structural framing and to determine how the impacts compare to the primary alternative product, galvanized steel framing members. Borate-treated lumber may be used for framing buildings in locations of high decay or termite hazard. A model of borate-treated lumber life cycle stages was created and used to calculate inputs and outputs during the lumber production, treating, use, and disposal stages. Lumber production data are based on published sources. Primary wood preservative treatment data were obtained by surveying wood treatment facilities in the United States. Product use and disposal inventory data are based on published data and professional judgment. Life cycle inputs, outputs, and impact indicators for borate-treated lumber were quantified using life cycle assessment LCA methodologies at functional units of 1000 board feet, 100 linear feet (30.5 linear meters) of structural perimeter wall framing, and framing required for the perimeter walls of one representative home. In a similar manner, a life cycle inventory model was developed for the manufacture, use, and disposal of the primary alternative product, galvanized steel framing, and comparisons were done using an equivalent measure of 100 linear feet of structural perimeter wall framing. Impact indicator values such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, fossil fuel use, water use, acidification, ecological toxicity, smog forming potential, and eutrophication were quantified for each of the two framing products.National normalization was done to compare the significance of the framing in a representative U.S. family home to the family’s total annual impact footprint.If a U.S. family of three builds a 2225 square feet (207 square meters) home using borate-treated lumber for structural perimeter wall framing, the framing impact “footprint” (normalized over the use life of the structure) for GHG emissions, fossil fuel use, acidification, ecological toxicity, smog forming potential, and eutrophication each is less than one-tenth of a percent of the family’s annual overall impact. The cradle-to-grave life cycle impacts of borate-treated lumber framing were approximately four times less for fossil fuel use, 1.8 times less for GHGs, 83 times less for water use, 3.5 times less for acidification, 2.5 times less for ecological impact, 2.8 times less for smog formation, and 3.3 times less for eutrophication than those for galvanized steel framing.     

汽车4S店表面涂装有机废气监测的研究

汽车4S店表面涂装有机废气排放现已成为城市重要的污染排放源之一,中国目前暂未针对该行业废气排放制定相关标准.对汽车4S店有机废气的监测情况及国外、国内地方相关标准做了简单的介绍,对表面涂装工艺和污染治理提出一些对策.对多家汽车4S店的监测情况进行了概述,建议加强汽车4S店表面涂装大气污染物排放控制和管理,改善区域大气环境质量,促进表面涂装工艺和污染治理技术的进步,尽快规范相应管理措施,才能有效控制汽车表面涂装大气污染物的排放.     

吡草醚原药对大鼠胚胎及胎仔发育的影响

经口染毒大鼠检测妊娠动物接触吡草醚原药后引起致畸的可能性,初步评价吡草醚原药致畸危害程度。依据《GB15670-1995农药登记毒理学试验方法》,选用的大鼠按雄、雌2:1比例同笼交配,次日清晨阴道涂片检查雌鼠,发现精子即确定为受孕第0天,设低、中、高三个剂量组(18.56、92.80、464.00 mg·(kg·d)-1)、一个阴性对照组和一个阳性对照组。在雌鼠受孕第6~15天灌胃给予受试物,连续共10天,在妊娠第19.5天,处死孕鼠检查胚胎发育情况。高剂量组和阳性对照组大鼠孕期体重增重值降低,差异有显著性(p0.05);中、高剂量组和阳性对照组大鼠吸收胎率与阴性对照组比较差异有显著性(p0.05);中、高剂量组和阳性对照组胎鼠重量与阴性对照组比较,差异有显著性(p0.01);阳性对照组胎鼠外观畸形明显,与阴性对照组比较差异有显著性(p0.01);各剂量组胎鼠外观畸形与阴性对照组比较,差异均无显著性(p0.05);中、高剂量组组和阳性对照组胎鼠骨骼及内脏畸形例数明显增多,差异有显著性(p0.01)。实验结果表明吡草醚原药中、高剂量组可明显影响雌鼠体重增长及其胚胎的发育。     

A2O氧化沟缺氧区三维流场模拟及结构形式优化

以FLUENT软件为工具,选用三维RNG k-ε紊流数学模型对重庆井口污水厂A2O氧化沟缺氧区内的流场进行模拟,分析了缺氧区内流场分布不均匀及沉泥的原因,提出了水下推进器的合理设置位置与导流墙的合理设置方式,并对优化后的缺氧区进行了模拟计算。通过优化后模拟的结果可见,在相同的功率密度下,缺氧区内的流场得到了较均匀的分布,流速从原来的0.131 m/s提升到0.204 m/s,减少了能量的损失。底部的流速也从原来的0.140 m/s提升到0.226 m/s,有效的防止或减少了沟中的污泥沉积。优化的结果对实际工程的设计也有一定的指导意义。     

A2O氧化沟缺氧区三维流场模拟及结构形式优化

以FLUENT软件为工具,选用三维RNG k-ε紊流数学模型对重庆井口污水厂A²O氧化沟缺氧区内的流场进行模拟,分析了缺氧区内流场分布不均匀及沉泥的原因,提出了水下推进器的合理设置位置与导流墙的合理设置方式,并对优化后的缺氧区进行了模拟计算。通过优化后模拟的结果可见,在相同的功率密度下,缺氧区内的流场得到了较均匀的分布,流速从原来的0.131 m/s提升到0.204 m/s,减少了能量的损失。底部的流速也从原来的0.140 m/s提升到0.226 m/s,有效的防止或减少了沟中的污泥沉积。优化的结果对实际工程的设计也有一定的指导意义。     

The Northridge Earthquake: Community-based Approaches to Unmet Recovery Needs

The 1994 Northridge, California earthquake has proven to be one of the most costly disasters in United States history. Federal and state assistance programmes received some 681,000 applications from victims for various forms of relief. In spite of the flow of US$11 billion in federal assistance into Los Angeles and Ventura counties, many victims have failed to obtain adequate relief. These unmet needs relate to the vulnerability of particular class and ethnic groups. In response to unmet needs, a number of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have become involved in the recovery process. This paper, based on evidence collected from hundreds of in-depth interviews with the people involved, examines the activities of several community-based organisations (CBOs) and other NGOs as they have attempted to assist vulnerable people with unmet post-disaster needs. We discuss two small ethnically diverse communities in Ventura County, on the periphery of the Los Angeles metropolitan region. The earthquake and resultant disaster declaration provided an opportunity for local government and NGOs to acquire federal resources not normally available for economic development. At the same time the earthquake created political openings in which longer-term issues of community development could be addressed by various local stakeholders. A key issue in recovery has been the availability of affordable housing for those on low incomes, particularly Latinos, the elderly and farm workers. We discuss the successes and limitations of CBOs and NGOs as mechanisms for dealing with vulnerable populations, unmet needs and recovery issues in the two communities.