Environmental flows and its evaluation of restoration effect based on LEDESS model in Yellow River Delta wetlands

Due to freshwater supplement scarcity and heavy human activities, the fresh water wetland ecosystem in Yellow River Delta is facing disintegrated deterioration, and it is seriously affecting the health of the Yellow River ecosystem. This paper identifies the restoration objectives of wetland aiming to protect ecological and economic values and development as well as the water resources of the Yellow River. The hydraulic and groundwater coupling model and Landscape Ecological Decision and Evaluation Support System (LEDESS) of the Yellow River Delta were established to calculate environmental flows of degraded wetlands. LEDESS is a computer-based model developed and used to assess and evaluate the effects of land-use changes on nature. In this study, LEDESS is used to assess and evaluate the ecological effects and the restoration possibilities considering several environmental flows’ supplement scenarios. This included the changes of suitable habitat conditions and its ecological carrying capacities for indicator species, e.g., Red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis), Oriental stork (Ciconia boyciana), and Saunder’s gull (Larus relictus), and changing of ecological patterns. The results showed that replenishing fresh water to wetlands is one of the effective adaptive measures to mitigate wetland degradation and improve its habitat quality and carrying capacities. This study indicated that landscape ecology approach is not only considered as a good way to solve complex problems in ecosystem management but also can be used to decide on the environmental flows and assess its ecological effects in large-scale wetland rehabilitation. This integrated method could make environmental flows estimated and assessment more rational than the results of hydrologic methods. It could assist decision makers to “see” the ecological effects after water supplementing and so alleviate the contradictions between environmental flows and production water demands, and can facilitate the implementation of environmental flows in most countries with water resources shortage.     

Uncertainty from Model Calibration: Applying a New Method to Transport Energy Demand Modelling

Uncertainties in energy demand modelling originate from both limited understanding of the real-world system and a lack of data for model development, calibration and validation. These uncertainties allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. Here, an automated model calibration procedure was developed and tested for transport sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model. This model describes energy use on the basis of activity levels, structural change and autonomous and price-induced energy efficiency improvements. We found that the model could reasonably reproduce historic data under different sets of parameter values, leading to different projections of future energy demand levels. Projected energy use for 2030 shows a range of 44–95% around the best-fit projection. Two different model interpretations of the past can generally be distinguished: (1) high useful energy intensity and major energy efficiency improvements or (2) low useful energy intensity and little efficiency improvement. Generally, the first lead to higher future energy demand levels than the second, but model and insights do not provide decisive arguments to attribute a higher likelihood to one of the alternatives.     

Air-quality modelling in the Lake Baikal region

In this paper, we assess the status of the air quality in the Lake Baikal region which is strongly influenced by the presence of anthropogenic pollution sources. We combined the local data, with global databases, remote sensing imagery and modelling tools. This approach allows to inventorise the air-polluting sources and to quantify the air-quality concentration levels in the Lake Baikal region to a reasonable level, despite the fact that local data are scarcely available. In the simulations, we focus on the month of July 2003, as for this period, validation data are available for a number of ground-based measurement stations within the Lake Baikal region.     

Chemical contamination and the ecological quality of surface water

In the assessment of the quality of surface waters, the typical procedure is that the concentration of contaminants in the surface water is monitored and subsequently compared with their respective Maximum Permissible Concentrations (MPCs). If the MPCs are not exceeded the water quality is considered to be safe. But can we be certain that this is true?We compared MPCs to observed and calculated effects of measured contaminants in Dutch surface waters and showed that effects of mixtures can cause a daphnid population to go extinct within 30 h of exposure even when MPCs are not exceeded. We conclude that there are shortcomings underlying the concepts of the MPCs. And that the MPCs aim to protect 95% of all species is not met.     

Detection of Human Enteric Viruses in Freshwater from European Countries

The transmission of water-borne pathogens typically occurs by a faecal–oral route, through inhalation of aerosols, or by direct or indirect contact with contaminated water. Previous molecular-based studies have identified viral particles of zoonotic and human nature in surface waters. Contaminated water can lead to human health issues, and the development of rapid methods for the detection of pathogenic microorganisms is a valuable tool for the prevention of their spread. The aims of this work were to determine the presence and identity of representative human pathogenic enteric viruses in water samples from six European countries by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR) and to develop two quantitative PCR methods for Adenovirus 41 and Mammalian Orthoreoviruses. A 2-year survey showed that Norovirus, Mammalian Orthoreovirus and Adenoviruses were the most frequently identified enteric viruses in the sampled surface waters. Although it was not possible to establish viability and infectivity of the viruses considered, the detectable presence of pathogenic viruses may represent a potential risk for human health. The methodology developed may aid in rapid detection of these pathogens for monitoring quality of surface waters.     

Bioaccumulation of elements in bryophytes from Serra da Estrela, Portugal, and Veluwezoom, the Netherlands

Background, Aims and Scope Pollution by heavy metals over large areas and long periods of time may cause chronic damage to living organisms and must be carefully controlled. One way to determine the extent of environmental contamination is by measuring the levels of contaminants in plants. The use of mosses as biomonitors is a convenient method to determine levels of (atmospheric) deposition, as terrestrial mosses obtain most of their supply of mineral elements from precipitation and dry deposition of airborne particles. Mosses have therefore received increasing attention as a suitable tool for monitoring regional patterns of elemental deposition from the atmosphere in large-scale studies in various countries, in areas close to industrial installations as well as in areas not expected to be contaminated. Although this technique is widely known, ecological studies of this type have rarely been done in Portugal. The aim of this paper is to evaluate and compare the spatial distribution of heavy metals in Hypnum cupressiforme, Pleurozium schreberi, Dicranum scoparium and Polytrichum piliferum collected from the Serra da Estrela natural park in Portugal and in the Veluwezoom natural park in the Netherlands. The selected species are the most widely used bryophytes for biomonitoring in the boreal region. The popularity of these species for this purpose is due to their wide ecological amplitude and distribution.Methods At 54 sampling sites in both nature parks, samples of Hypnum cupressiforme, Pleurozium schreberi, Dicranum scoparium and Polytrichum piliferum were collected. Plant digests were analysed for Al, Ba, Ca, Cr, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Ni, Sr, V, Zn, Pb, Cu, Cd, N and P. Differentiations between sampling sites in terms of concentrations of elements in mosses were evaluated by ANOVA and the least significant difference was calculated. The normality of the analysed features was checked with the chi square test. After standardization, the matrix of 54 samples and 10 heavy metals was subjected to numerical classification to detect groups of samples with similar patterns of metal concentrations. The clustering algorithm was prepared with Ward’s method, and the City Block Manhattan method was used for the similarity measure. Metals and samples were also subjected to ordination to reveal possible gradients of heavy metal levels, using PCA. Correlations were calculated between concentrations of metals and factors 1 and 2, allowing the dependence between the concentration of metals and factors (factor loading) to be estimated.Results and Discussion All species examined in both areas contained elevated levels of Mn and Pb. For each particular species, concentrations of N, P and Pb were significantly higher at Serra da Estrela, while concentrations of Cu were significantly higher at the Veluwezoom. Mosses from Portugal and the Netherlands differed significantly mainly in the concentrations of Al, Ba, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and V. This differentiation did not exceed that within the mosses from Portugal.Conclusions Mosses from Portugal and the Netherlands differ significantly mainly in the concentrations of Al, Ba, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and V. This differentiation does not exceed the differentiation within the mosses from Portugal.Recommendation and Outlook Further research is required into the origin and deposition of the polluting elements in other environmental compartments.     

Resource distributions affect social learning on multiple timescales

We study how learning is shaped by foraging opportunities and self-organizing processes and how this impacts on the effects of “copying what neighbors eat” on multiple timescales. We use an individual-based model with a rich environment, where group foragers learn what to eat. We vary foraging opportunities by changing local variation in resources, studying copying in environments with pure patches, varied patches, and uniform distributed resources. We find that copying can help individuals explore the environment by sharing information, but this depends on how foraging opportunities shape the learning process. Copying has the greatest impact in varied patches, where local resource variation makes learning difficult, but local resource abundance makes copying easy. In contrast, copying is redundant or excessive in pure patches where learning is easy, and mostly ineffective in uniform environments where learning is difficult. Our results reveal that the mediation of copying behavior by individual experience is crucial for the impact of copying. Moreover, we find that the dynamics of social learning at short timescales shapes cultural phenomena. In fact, the integration of learning on short and long timescales generates cumulative cultural improvement in diet. Our results therefore provide insight into how and when such processes can arise. These insights need to be taken into account when considering behavioral patterns in nature.