Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (~?25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.     

Influence of Clear Fellings on the Bryophyte Component of the Broad-leaved Forests of the Bashkir Cis-Ural Region

The change in the composition of the bryophyte component of succession communities that occur in the process of natural regeneration at the site of clear felling of the indigenous elm—maple–linden forests of the Bashkir Cis-Ural Region has been studied. The vulnerability of species to the consequences of felling is affected by their substrate confinement, ecological amplitude in relation to the factors of temperature, humidity, variability of soil moisture, and type of life strategy. In the secondary aspen forests, the absence or low constancy of nemoral epiphytic and ground mosses was noted.     

Effects of EGR on performance and emissions of a diesel engine fuelled with balanites aegyptiaca/diesel blends

In this study, balanites Aegyptiaca (L.) Del biodiesel was blended in proportions of 10% and 20% on the volume basis with diesel fuel and tested in a single cylinder, VCR diesel engine under measured load conditions with varied EGR rates (0, 10 and 20%). The results showed that B10 and B20 blends shown a significant reduction rate in terms of NO_x emissions that were familiar with biodiesel blends. At peak load conditions, BTE increased slightly for test fuel blends compared with pure diesel fuel while the BSFC rate and EGT suffered from increasing and decreasing nature with respect to blending percentage. From the emissions point of view, with the increase in blends percentage, a significant reduction rate is observed in terms of CO and HC concentrations (up to 12.34 and 17.5%, respectively) while NOx emissions decreased at peak load conditions (up to 24.34%). HC and CO emissions decreased with increase in blends percentage. However, lower levels of NO_x and EGT (up to 21.37 and 8.47%, respectively) and the average increase in terms of BTE and BSFC (up to 2.83 and 2.9%, respectively) can be realised with B20 test fuel blend under 20% EGR rate.     

Comparative analysis of small mammal communities in Chisinau and Yaroslavl, two European cities located in different biomes

Comparative analysis of the structure of small mammal communities has been performed in two European cities located in different biomes: Chisinau (2008?C2009) and Yaroslavl (1994?C2002). The parameters studied included abundance, species composition, similarity and difference of faunas, species diversity, and proportions of groups differing in predisposition to synanthropy. It has been found that the structure of small mammal communities in these cities depends on specific physiographic conditions of the surrounding areas and on the distinctive features of the cities themselves (their structure, age, etc.). The similarity between the faunas is accounted for by the common ecological patterns of fauna formation in the biota of urban cenoses.     

Human impacts on fire occurrence: a case study of hundred years of forest fires in a dry alpine valley in Switzerland

Forest fire regimes are sensitive to alterations of climate, fuel load, and ignition sources. We investigated the impact of human activities and climate on fire occurrence in a dry continental valley of the Swiss Alps (Valais) by relating fire occurrence to population and road density, biomass removal by livestock grazing and wood harvest, temperature and precipitation in two distinct periods (1904–1955 and 1956–2006) using generalized additive modeling. This study provides evidence for the role played by humans and temperature in shaping fire occurrence. The existence of ignition sources promotes fire occurrence to a certain extent only; for example, high road density tends to be related to fewer fires. Changes in forest uses within the study region seem to be particularly important. Fire occurrence appears to have been negatively associated with livestock pasturing in the forest and wood harvesting, in particular during the period 1904–1955. This study illustrates consistently how fire occurrence has been influenced by land use and socioeconomic conditions. It also suggests that there is no straightforward linear relationship between human factors and fire occurrence.     

Typical patterns of smallholder vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security in the Peruvian Altiplano

Smallholder livelihoods in the Peruvian Altiplano are frequently threatened by weather extremes, including droughts, frosts and heavy rainfall. Given the persistence of significant undernourishment despite regional development efforts, we propose a cluster approach to evaluate smallholders’ vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security. We applied this approach to 268 smallholder households using information from two existing regional assessments and from our own household survey. The cluster analysis revealed four vulnerability patterns that depict typical combinations of household attributes, including their harvest failure risk, agricultural resources, education level and non-agricultural income. We validated the identified vulnerability patterns by demonstrating the correlation between them and an independently reported damage: the purchase of food and fodder resulting from exposure to weather extremes. The vulnerability patterns were then ranked according to the different amounts of purchase. A second validation aspect accounted for independently reported mechanisms explaining smallholders’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Based on the similarities among the households, our study contributes to the understanding of vulnerability beyond individual cases. In particular, the validation strengthens the credibility and suitability of our findings for decision-making pertaining to the reduction of vulnerability.     

Assessment of the natural-cultural resources in Çanakkale for nature-based tourism

While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined.     

Environmental change,development and vectorborne disease: Malaysia’s experience with filariasis,scrub typhus and dengue

During Malaysia’s rapid economic development into becoming a middle income country in the past several decades, environmental changes resulted in altered land use patterns because of agricultural practices such as large scale rice, rubber and oil palm cultivation. The impact of environmental changes brought about by rice and rubber cultivation affected the breeding habitats of mosquito vectors which in turn affected the prevalence of two strains of lymphatic filariasis in different ways. With scrub typhus, the development of oil palm plantations affected the ecology of mite and rodent populations which resulted in very high incidence of the disease in affected populations. Malaysia’s relentless urbanization has resulted in increased incidence of dengue, as peridomestic mosquito vectors increasingly colonize urban habitats. This article discusses how ecological factors determine the way lymphatic filariasis, scrub typhus and dengue were spread in Malaysia. The nation’s experience with environmental changes due to rapid development provides lessons for other developing countries in control programs and public health policy.     

Reproduction of the Siberian spruce in the timberline ecotone of the Iremel’ Massif

Quantitative and qualitative characteristics of cones and seeds and the emergence and survival of seedlings in the Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.) were studied in different parts of the timberline ecotone on the Iremel’ Massif, the Southern Urals, from 2003 to 2006. In the productive year 2003, a decrease in the number of cones (from 110000 to 3000 per hectare), the yield of seeds (from 13 × 10⁶ to 0.09 × 10⁶ per hectare), and their laboratory germination rate (from 34 to 14%) with an increase in elevation above sea level was recorded. In 2004, significant differences in the number of seedlings per hectare were revealed between the lower, middle, and upper parts of the ecotone (85 200, 19 800, and 0–400 ind., respectively). It has been shown that the greater part of seedlings (76–96%) perish during the first cold period. New generations of spruce trees are formed only after productive years. Seed production and seedling mortality in spruce apparently depend not only on air temperature and soil moistening but also on snow depth and soil temperature, which change more abruptly along the altitudinal gradient.