Cross-combined composite sampling designs for identification of elevated regions

Analyzing soils for contaminants can be costly. Generally, discrete samples are gathered from within a study area, analyzed by a laboratory and the results are used in a site-specific statistical analysis. Because of the heterogeneities that exist in soil samples within study areas, a large amount of variability and skewness may be present in the sample population. This necessitates collecting a large number of samples to obtain reliable inference on the mean contaminant concentration and to understand the spatial patterns for future remediation. Composite, or Incremental, sampling is a commonly applied method for gathering multiple discrete samples and physically combining them, such that each combination of discrete samples requires a single laboratory analysis, which reduces cost and can improve the estimates of the mean concentration. While incremental sampling can reduce cost and improve mean estimates, current implementations do not readily facilitate the characterization of spatial patterns or the detection of elevated constituent regions within study areas. The methods we present in this work provide efficient estimation and inference for the mean contaminant concentration over the entire spatial area and enable the identification of high contaminant regions within the area of interest. We develop sample design methodologies that explicitly define the characteristics of these designs (such as sample grid layout) and quantify the number of incremental samples that must be obtained under a design criteria to control false positive and false negative (Type I and II) decision errors. We present the sample design theory and specifications as well as results on simulated and real data.     

Hydrologic monitoring tools for freshwater municipal planning in the Arctic: the case of Iqaluit,Nunavut, Canada

Freshwater and the services it provides are vital to both natural ecosystems and human needs; however, extreme climates and their influence on freshwater availability can be challenging for municipal planners and engineers to manage these resources effectively. In Arctic Canada, financial and human capital limitations have left a legacy of freshwater systems that underserve current communities and may be inadequate in the near future under a warming climate, growing population, and increasing demand. We address this challenge to community water resource planning by applying several novel water supply forecasting methods to evaluate the Apex River as an alternative freshwater source for Iqaluit, Nunavut (Canada). Surveys of water isotope composition of the Apex River and tributaries indicated that rainfall is the main source of water replenishment. This information was utilized to calibrate a water resource assessment that considered climate forecasting scenarios and their influence on supply, and alternative scenarios for freshwater management to better adapt to a changing climate. We found that under current climate and demand conditions, the freshwater supply of Iqaluit would be in a perpetual state of drawdown by 2024. Analysis of current infrastructure proposals revealed significant deficiencies in the supply extensions proposed whereby the Apex replenishment pipeline would only provide a 2-year extension to current municipal supply. Our heuristic supply forecast methods allowed for several alternative supply strategies to be rapidly evaluated, which will aid the community planning process by specifically quantifying the service life of the city’s current and future primary water supply.     

Dust events and their influence on aerosol optical properties over Jaipur in Northwestern India

In this study, we systematically document the link between dust episodes and local scale regional aerosol optical properties over Jaipur located in the vicinity of Thar Desert in the northwestern state of Rajasthan. The seasonal variation of AOT_{500 nm} (aerosol optical thickness) shows high values (0.51?±?0.18) during pre-monsoon (dust dominant) season while low values (0.36?±?0.14) are exhibited during winter. The Ångström wavelength exponent has been found to exhibit low value (<0.25) indicating relative dominance of coarse-mode particles during pre-monsoon season. The AOT increased from 0.36 (April_mean) to 0.575 (May–June_mean). Consequently, volume concentration range increases from April through May–June followed by a sharp decline in July during the first active phase of the monsoon. Significantly high dust storms were observed over Jaipur as indicated by high values of single scattering albedo (SSA_{440 nm}?=?0.89, SSA_{675 nm}?=?0.95, SSA_{870 nm}?=?0.97, SSA_{1,020 nm}?=?0.976) than the previously reported values over IGP region sites. The larger SSA values (more scattering aerosol), especially at longer wavelengths, is due to the abundant dust loading, and is attributed to the measurement site’s proximity to the Thar Desert. The mean and standard deviation in SSA and asymmetry parameter during pre-monsoon season over Jaipur is 0.938?±?0.023 and 0.712?±?0.017 at 675 nm wavelength, respectively. Back-trajectory air mass simulations suggest Thar Desert in northwestern India as the primary source of high aerosols dust loading over Jaipur region as well as contribution by long-range transport from the Arabian Peninsula and Middle East gulf regions, during pre-monsoon season.     

The Impact of Local versus National Framing on Willingness to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A case study from central Pennsylvania

This paper explores the impact of the frame in which people interpret global warming. In 1999, 637 respondents completed a mail survey in five counties in central Pennsylvania. Half of the sample received questionnaires that framed global warming in terms of the local impacts of mitigation policies, whereas the other half received questionnaires that framed global warming in terms of the national impacts of mitigation policies. The results show a statistically significant but small difference between the local and national frames in the respondents' willingness to support government policies, as well as to take voluntary actions to mitigate climate change.     

Ontogenetic variation in cold tolerance plasticity in Drosophila: is the Bogert effect bogus?

Ontogenetic variation in plasticity is important to understanding mechanisms and patterns of thermal tolerance variation. The Bogert effect postulates that, to compensate for their inability to behaviourally thermoregulate, less-mobile life stages of ectotherms are expected to show greater plasticity of thermal tolerance than more-mobile life stages. We test this general prediction by comparing plasticity of thermal tolerance (rapid cold-hardening, RCH) between mobile adults and less-mobile larvae of 16 Drosophila species. We find an RCH response in adults of 13 species but only in larvae of four species. Thus, the Bogert effect is not as widespread as expected.     

Changing places, changing emissions: The cross-scale reliability of greenhouse gas emission inventories in the US

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories, which currently inform abatement policy discussions, are developed mostly from national scale data. Nevertheless, although the policy debate tends to take place in global and national arenas, action to abate GHG emissions is inherently within the provenance of local institutions and communities. The purpose of this paper is to examine how much information is lost by not estimating GHG emissions data at scales finer than the whole US. Such information may be critical in bridging global and local policy. Differences in the composition of GHG emission sources based on GHG emission inventories at three nested spatial scales (national, state, local) for four study sites (in Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania) are analysed, drawing upon initial results of a large collaborative study known as the 'Association of American Geographers-Global Change in Local Places (GCLP)' project. The concept of spatial sovereignty of emissions is developed to test the cross-scale reliability of emission inventories. For the test year 1990, close agreement is found in the by-gas composition of GHG emissions among national, state and local inventories. Spatial sovereignty in this case is maintained. However close agreement is not found in the by-source composition of GHG emissions among national, state and local inventories. Spatial sovereignty in this case is not maintained. Regular compilation of state and local emissions source inventories may be necessary to track important spatial and temporal deviations from national trends.     

Sailing the Shoals of Adaptive Management: The Case of Salmon in the Pacific Northwest

/ Emerging ecosystem science builds on adaptive management as an approach to dealing with salmon problems in the Pacific Northwest. Adaptive management brings scientific and democratic processes together. However, managers, the public, resource users, and scientists differ in their views on the causes of salmon decline. Managers emphasize habitat loss and over-harvest as the primary causes; commercial fishers point to habitat loss, management practices, and predators; and the public gives greatest weight to water pollution and ocean drift nets. Scientific studies of salmon often produce results that seem contradictory or unclear to the public. For adaptive management to be effective, scientists' and the public need to better understand one another's perspectives.KEY WORDS: Perception; Fishery management; Salmon; Pacific Northwest; Science