Nonlinear regression and ARIMA models for precipitation chemistry in East Central Florida from 1978 to 1997

Continuous monitoring of precipitation in East Central Florida has occurred since 1978 at a sampling site located on the University of Central Florida (UCF) campus. Monthly volume-weighted average (VWA) concentration for several major analytes that are present in precipitation samples was calculated from samples collected daily. Monthly VWA concentration and wet deposition of H(+), NH(4)(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), NO(3)(-), Cl(-) and SO(4)(2-) were evaluated by a nonlinear regression (NLR) model that considered 10-year data (from 1978 to 1987) and 20-year data (from 1978 to 1997). Little change in the NLR parameter estimates was indicated among the 10-year and 20-year evaluations except for general decreases in the predicted trends from the 10-year to the 20-year fits. Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with linear trend were considered as an alternative to the NLR models for these data. The NLR and ARIMA model forecasts for 1998 were compared to the actual 1998 data. For monthly VWA concentration values, the two models gave similar results. For the wet deposition values, the ARIMA models performed considerably better.     

Influence of hydrological and geochemical processes on the transport of chelated metals and chromate in fractured shale bedrock

Field-scale processes governing the transport of chelated radionuclides in groundwater remain conceptually unclear for highly structured, heterogeneous environments. The objectives of this research were to provide an improved understanding and predictive capability of the hydrological and geochemical mechanisms that control the transport behavior of chelated radionuclides and metals in anoxic subsurface environments that are complicated by fracture flow and matrix diffusion. Our approach involved a long-term, steady-state natural gradient field experiment where nonreactive Br- and reactive 57Co(II)EDTA2- 109CdEDTA2-, and 51Cr(VI) were injected into a fracture zone of a contaminated fractured shale bedrock. The spatial and temporal distribution of the tracer and solutes was monitored for 500 days using an array of groundwater sampling wells instrumented within the fast-flowing fracture regime and a slower flowing matrix regime. The tracers were preferentially transported along strike-parallel fractures coupled with the slow diffusion of significant tracer mass into the bedrock matrix. The chelated radionuclides and metals were significantly retarded by the solid phase with the mechanisms of retardation largely due to redox reactions and sorption coupled with mineral-induced chelate-radionuclide dissociation. The formation of significant Fe(III)EDTA byproduct that accompanied the dissociation of the radionuclide-chelate complexes was believed to be the result of surface interactions with biotite which was the only Fe(III)-bearing mineral phase present in these Fe-reducing environments. These results counter current conceptual models that suggest chelated contaminants move conservatively through Fe-reducing environments since they are devoid of Fe-oxyhydroxides that are known to aggressively compete for chelates in oxic regimes. Modeling results further demonstrated that chelate-radionuclide dissociation reactions were most prevalent along fractures where accelerated weathering processes are expected to expose more primary minerals than the surrounding rock matrix. The findings of this study suggest that physical retardation mechanisms (i.e. diffusion) are dominant within the matrix regime, whereas geochemical retardation mechanisms are dominant within the fracture regime.     

Identification of Amazon River water at Barbados,W. Indies,by salinity and silicate measurements

Salinity and silicate concentrations were studied at about fortnightly intervals for 21 months at a station near Barbados, W. Indies; latitude 13°15 N, longitude 59°42 W. A sensitive inverse correlation was found to exist at 5 and 25 m, but not at greater depths. Salinity near the surface varied between 33.5 and 36.0, and silicate between a little less than 1 and 4 g at/l. Low salinity water, rich in silicate, was found from February to July; salinity increased and silicate decreased from September to December. It is argued that the low salinity water at Barbados can be identified with the areas of reduced salinity found by Ryther et al. (1967) about latitude 8° to 10° N, longitude 50° to 55° W, and that this water originates from the Amazon River. Local precipitation does not seem to be a significant factor.     

WATER QUALITY DURING STORM EVENTS FROM TWO CONSTRUCTED WETLANDS RECEWING MINE DRAINAGE1

ABSTRACT: Flow rates, pH, iron concentration, and manganese concentration were measured during several storm events at two constructed wetlands receiving mine water. During a substantial rain event, flow rates at both the wetland outlets surpassed flow rates at the wetland inlets, reflecting incident rainfall and differences in wetland area at the two sites. A significant positive correlation existed between local rainfall and outflow rates at the larger wetland, but not between rainfall and inflow rates. During storm events, outlet pH, relative to inlet pH, was slightly elevated at the larger wetland, and depressed at the smaller wetland. However, over the course of one year, rainfall was uncorrelated to outlet pH in the larger wetland. A substantial rain event at the smaller wetland resulted in a temporary elevation in outlet iron concentrations, with treatment efficiency reduced to near zero. However, in the larger wetland, outlet iron concentrations were not significantly affected by storm events. Although rainfall and outlet iron concentration were not significant correlates at the larger wetland, flow rate was positively correlated to outlet iron concentration. A normal manganese treatment efficiency of 50 percent at the smaller wetland was reduced to zero during a heavy rain.     

Multispecies transport of metal–EDTA complexes and chromate through undisturbed columns of weathered fractured saprolite

Laboratory-scale tracer experiments were conducted to investigate the geochemical and hydrological processes that govern the fate and transport of organically chelated radionuclides and toxic metals in undisturbed saturated columns of weathered, fractured shale saprolite. Three long-term, reactive contaminant injections were pulsed onto three separate soil columns, with the following influent mixtures: (1) ¹⁰⁹CdEDTA²⁻, (2) ¹⁰⁹CdEDTA²⁻ and ^57,58Co(II)EDTA²⁻, and (3) ¹⁰⁹CdEDTA²⁻, ⁵⁷Co(III)EDTA⁻, and H⁵¹CrO₄⁻. Both single and multiple species experiments were conducted to determine the importance of interaction between the contaminants and competition for surface sites. Flow interruption was used to identify physical and chemical non-equilibrium (PNE and CNE) which were caused by multiple pore-region flow and rate-limited chemical reactions, respectively. Reactive contaminant transport through the fractured, weathered shale was affected by sorption, redox, and dissociation reactions, which were mediated by soil organic matter and surficial oxides of Fe, Mn, and Al. The transport of CdEDTA²⁻ was significantly influenced by ligand-promoted dissolution of subsurface Fe and Al sources, resulting in the liberation of Cd²⁺, Al(III)EDTA⁻ and Fe(III)EDTA⁻. Flow interruption confirmed that the surface-mediated dissociation reaction was time-dependent, with the stability of the CdEDTA²⁻ complex dependent on its residence time within the soil. The migration of Co(II)EDTA²⁻ was dominated by oxidization to the highly stable Co(III)EDTA⁻ species, and elevated effluent Mn²⁺ suggested that surficial Mn(IV) oxides likely catalyzed the redox reaction, though Fe-oxides may have also contributed to the reaction. Dissociation (12%) of the Co(II)EDTA²⁻ complex was first observed during flow interruption, indicating that rate-limited dissociation of the complex by Fe-oxides may be significant under equilibrium conditions. The transport of HCrO₄⁻ was significantly altered by the reduction of mobile Cr(VI) to irreversibly bound Cr(III). The reduction reaction was catalyzed by surface-bound natural organic matter and flow interruption confirmed that the reaction was time-dependent. There was little evidence of competitive effects between the various contaminants in the multispecies experiments, since each was influenced by a different geochemical process during transport through the soil. The results of this study further support research findings that suggest anionic toxic metals and radionuclide–organic complexes can be significantly influenced by soil geochemical processes that can both enhance and impede the subsurface migration of these contaminants.     

PROTECTING BEIJLNG'S MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY THROUGH WATERSHED MANAGEMEN AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Watersheds above the Miyun reservoir, a principal source of surface water for Beijing, are designated to be managed for water production, but under the principle of multiple use. Because of the scarcity of arable land, these watersheds cannot be managed only for drinking water. Efforts are under way to reduce sediment delivery, improve the quality of water entering Miyun reservoir, and improve the welfare of watershed inhabitants. An economic appraisal of a watershed management project for the 3,298‐ha Shixia watershed above the Miyun reservoir, indicates a 24 percent economic rate of return on the investment made in the project. The net present value (NPV) of the project, calculated at a discount rate of 10 percent, is approximately US$3.49 million. Sensitivity analyses indicate that a doubling of labor costs lowers the NPV to US$2.07 million and a 10 percent decrease in benefits lowered the NPV to US$2.87. It is concluded that the implementation of conservation practices on the Shixia Demonstration Watershed represent an economically efficient use of resources.     

A guide to qualitative attribution methods for evaluation in conservation

Knowledge of what conservation interventions improve biodiversity outcomes, and in which circumstances, is imperative. Experimental and quasi-experimental methods are increasingly used to establish causal inference and build the evidence base on the effectiveness of interventions, but their ability to provide insight into how and under what conditions an intervention should be implemented to improve biodiversity outcomes faces limitations. A suite of attribution methods that leverage qualitative methods for causal inference is available but underutilized in conversation impact evaluation. This article provides a guide to 5 such qualitative attribution methods: contribution analysis, process tracing, realist evaluation, qualitative comparative analysis, and most significant change. It defines and introduces each method and then illustrates how they could be applied through a case study of community conservancies in Namibia. This guide provides examples of how qualitative attribution methods can advance knowledge of what works, in which contexts, and why in biodiversity conservation.     

Quantifying and mapping species threat abatement opportunities to support national target setting

The successful implementation of the Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework will rely on effective translation of targets from global to national level and increased engagement across diverse sectors of society. Species conservation targets require policy support measures that can be applied to a diversity of taxonomic groups, that link action targets to outcome goals, and that can be applied to both global and national data sets to account for national context, which the species threat abatement and restoration (STAR) metric does. To test the flexibility of STAR, we applied the metric to vascular plants listed on national red lists of Brazil, Norway, and South Africa. The STAR metric uses data on species’ extinction risk, distributions, and threats, which we obtained from national red lists to quantify the contribution that threat abatement and habitat restoration activities could make to reducing species’ extinction risk. Across all 3 countries, the greatest opportunity for reducing plant species’ extinction risk was from abating threats from agricultural activities, which could reduce species’ extinction risk by 54% in Norway, 36% in South Africa, and 29% in Brazil. Species extinction risk could be reduced by a further 21% in South Africa by abating threats from invasive species and by 21% in Brazil by abating threats from urban expansion. Even with different approaches to red-listing among countries, the STAR metric yielded informative results that identified where the greatest conservation gains could be made for species through threat-abatement and restoration activities. Quantifiably linking local taxonomic coverage and data collection to global processes with STAR would allow national target setting to align with global targets and enable state and nonstate actors to measure and report on their potential contributions to species conservation.     

Stakeholder Understandings of Wildfire Mitigation: A Case of Shared and Contested Meanings

This article identifies and compares meanings of wildfire risk mitigation for stakeholders in the Front Range of Colorado, USA. We examine the case of a collaborative partnership sponsored by government agencies and directed to decrease hazardous fuels in interface areas. Data were collected by way of key informant interviews and focus groups. The analysis is guided by the Circuit of Culture model in communication research. We found both shared and differing meanings between members of this partnership (the "producers") and other stakeholders not formally in the partnership (the "consumers"). We conclude that those promoting the partnership's project to mitigate risk are primarily aligned with a discourse of scientific management. Stakeholders outside the partnership follow a discourse of community. We argue that failure to recognize and account for differences in the way risk mitigation is framed and related power dynamics could hamper the communicational efforts of the collaborative partnership and impact goals for fuels reduction. We recommend ways that both groups can capitalize on shared meanings and how agency managers and decision makers can build better working relationships with interface communities and other external stakeholders.