Comparison of constant volume balloons, model trajectories and tracer transport during ETEX

In the field phases of the European Tracer EXperiment (ETEX), an inert tracer was released for 12 h into the atmosphere and samples taken at several locations downwind. During the same time, several Constant Volume Balloons (CVB) (10 and 6 for ETEX first and second release, respectively) were launched into different altitudes and followed as far as 21–188 km, to indicate the initial dispersion directions of the tracer puff. A model simulating the CVB behaviour in hydrostatic meso-scale model forecasts is applied to ETEX data to demonstrate its capability to predict the tracer puff mean axis over long distances (−2000 km). CVB model results are first compared to air parcels trajectories and 2D (i.e. isentropic, isobaric and isodensity) trajectories. Then they are compared to the measured CVB trajectories and finally to the tracer puff trajectories. As expected, the CVB model and isodensity model trajectories are found to be identical. The 16 CVBs calculated trajectories nearly overlap the real ones over 21–188 km with mean absolute horizontal transport deviations less than 20 km (average value of 8.2 km). The corresponding relative transport deviations are less than 45% with an average value of 20.6%. Better predictions are obtained for the ETEX second release. During the 60 h following ETEX’s first release start, the simulated CVBs are mainly found in the area of the maximum surface concentrations of the released tracer, up to 2000 km. Up to 36 h after ETEX second tracer release start, the simulated CVB trajectories predict well the mean axis of the tracer puff, but failed later.     

Modelling Wetland Bird Response to Water Level Changes in the Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River Hydrosystem

Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River (LOSL) wetland bird abundance and diversity are greatly influenced by lake and river hydrology. Our study used an interdisciplinary ecosystem approach, blending avian and plant ecology, ecohydraulic, statistical ecology and modelling to evaluate potential impacts of water level fluctuations on indicator species representative of the wetland breeding bird assemblages in the entire LOSL freshwater system. Multi-year (2000–2003) bird surveys captured bird distribution and density in wetland habitats under varying degrees of water inandation, depth and fluctuation. Analyses revealed strong associations between estimated breeding pair densities and plant communities, water depth, and degree of water level fluctuation during the breeding season for a suite of wetland bird species using marsh, wet meadow, shrub swamp and treed swamp habitats. These quantitative associations were used to develop wetland bird performance indicators for use in a LOSL water regulation review study. Several bird species also nest at or near the water surface and are thus vulnerable to nest flooding or stranding. Changes to the seasonal hydrology of Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River that result in an increased frequency or magnitude of these nest failure events may have a significant impact on regional population sustainability. Long term nest record databases were analyzed to create nesting flooding and stranding probability equations based on water level increases and decreases during the breeding season. These species-specific nesting relationships were incorporated into a reproduction index.Many breeding bird species were strongly associated with specific wetland plant communities. Predicted habitat suitability, as measured by estimated breeding pair density, can also change significantly within a specific wetland plant community based solely on changes in water depth during the breeding season. Three indicator species, Black Tern, Least Bittern and Virginia Rail were selected as key environmental performance indicators for alternate regulation plan comparisons.Water regulation criteria should be such that the long term diversity and abundance of wetland plant communities and frequency of spring flooding in marsh habitats during breeding are not reduced. Magnitude and frequency of water level change during the nesting season (May–July) can also adversely impact reproductive success of many wetland bird species. As such, regulation criteria that increase the seasonal magnitude and frequency of water level change may be detrimental to the long term viability of certain regional breeding bird populations.     

Characterization of Escherichia Coli Isolates from Different Fecal Sources by Means of Classification Tree Analysis of Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (Fame) Profiles

Microbial source tracking (MST) methods need to be rapid, inexpensive and accurate. Unfortunately, many MST methods provide a wealth of information that is difficult to interpret by the regulators who use this information to make decisions. This paper describes the use of classification tree analysis to interpret the results of a MST method based on fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) profiles of Escherichia coli isolates, and to present results in a format readily interpretable by water quality managers. Raw sewage E. coli isolates and animal E. coli isolates from cow, dog, gull, and horse were isolated and their FAME profiles collected. Correct classification rates determined with leaveone-out cross-validation resulted in an overall low correct classification rate of 61%. A higher overall correct classification rate of 85% was obtained when the animal isolates were pooled together and compared to the raw sewage isolates. Bootstrap aggregation or adaptive resampling and combining of the FAME profile data increased correct classification rates substantially. Other MST methods may be better suited to differentiate between different fecal sources but classification tree analysis has enabled us to distinguish raw sewage from animal E. coli isolates, which previously had not been possible with other multivariate methods such as principal component analysis and cluster analysis.     

The influence of south Foehn on the ozone distribution in the Alpine Rhine valley—results from the MAP field phase

During the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) special observation period (SOP) between 7 September and 15 November 1999, ground-based and airborne measurements have been conducted in the Rhine valley south of the Lake of Constance to investigate the unstationary aspects of Foehn and related phenomena, like the impact of Foehn on the ozone concentrations in the valley. Foehn events occurred with above-average frequency and high diversity. Foehn induced ozone peaks in October and November are found to be much lower than the September Foehn case of the period. An inversion layer in the lake area with ozone concentrations below 10 ppb often shields the monitoring stations from the Foehn air aloft. Trajectory calculations for the Foehn period between 19 and 24 October 1999 reveal that the Foehn air originated from below 1 to 1.5 km above the Po Basin and the Mediterranean Sea. Tethered balloon soundings in the source area south of the Alps, ozone measurements at the mountain station Jungfraujoch (3580 m a.s.l.) and airborne measurements across the Alpine crests reveal that the ozone levels found in the Foehn air correspond to the concentrations just above the mixing height in the Po Basin and are transported across the Alpine crest within the lowest flow layer.     

Klima wandel und Malaria

Goal and Scope

The coastal zones of Lower Saxony (Germany) are former malaria regions. Malaria had finally become extinct in the early 1950s, and subsequently related scientific investigations declined. But from that time until nowadays, the vector in the form of Anopheles mosquitoes has still been present in Lower Saxony. Thus, the question arises, whether a new autochthon transmission could take place due to the monthly mean temperatures of the recent years. Answering this question was one goal of the investigation at hand. Another one was to examine the spatial and temporal structure of potential transmissions in respect to the predicted increase of the air temperatures according to the IPCC scenarios.

Methods

Current information about anophelines and their characteristics within Germany, such as details on historical incidences, breeding preferences, longevity or distribution of the respective species, were collected by literature research. Further, measurement and incidence data had to be collected and processed: temperature values were provided by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), and recent findings of Anopheles were supplied by the former Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Ökologie (NLÖ) as a data bank. Then temperature maps were calculated for the three periods (1947–1960, 1961–1990, 1985–2004) by means of Kriging. To model areas at risk, the transmission potential for a new vivax malaria spread in respect to temperature was computed using the Basic Reproduction Rate (R₀) formula. It provides the average number of secondary infections produced when a single infected individual is introduced into a potential host population in which each member is susceptible.

Results

The computations corroborate a climate warming between the 30-years interval from 1961 to 1990 and the period from 1985 to 2004. According to the rise of the air temperature as predicted by the IPCC scenarios, the spatial pattern of potential malaria outbreak was calculated for 2020, 2060 an 2100. To this end, for each of these years a best-case-scenario with the lowest reasonable temperature increases (+0.3°C, +0.9°C, +1.4°C) and a worst-case-scenario implying the highest plausible temperature rise (+0.9°C, +3.3°C, +5.8°C) were assumed. While in 2020 the maximum duration of the transmission risk is estimated to last four months, in 2100 the vivax transmission will be likely from May until October.

Discussion

Correlated with the higher monthly mean temperature values, the risk of a vivax transmission is increasing as temperature is the determining variable of the mathematical model. Therefore Lower Saxony is at risk of a new outbreak of vivax malaria assuming no other risk factors are of relevance.

Conclusions

The study could demonstrate that most parts of the country lie within a transmission zone with a duration of two months. The areas containing the highest risk with a transmission length of three months are located around Nordhorn and Hameln, and within the rectangle of Celle, Hannover, Helmstedt and Wolfsburg. These areas match with recent Anopheles larvae finding by the NLÖ, thus, only the pathogen is lacking for a successful transmission. And as Germany is not an endemic malaria zone, the pathogen can enter the country most likely by infected people or imported mosquitoes that transport it in their guts.

Recommendations and Perspectives

The results should be understood as a request for more comprehensive investigations in that field. This would be an essential basis for a successful risk monitoring and precautionary management. Although the chances of a new endemic malaria disease in Germany seem to be considerably low today, it would be better to be prepared than to be suddenly faced with the unexpected.     

Analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the atmospheric particulate: focused microwaves for a faster extraction method

In this paper, improvements obtained by using focused microwaves for extraction, in the analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) adsorbed on particulate matter, are discussed. The method was tested on the following PAHs, which are considered to be among the most harmful with regard to carcinogenicity: benzo[a]anthracene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, benzo[a]pyrene, indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene, dibenzo[a,h]anthracene. The extraction of PAHs and concentration of the sample can be performed in 3 h with a recovery of at least 70% and a maximum standard deviation of 4%. These steps are followed by clean-up on a SPE (solid-phase extraction) cartridge and analysis by GC-MS. Real samples collected in the urban area of Bari were analysed according to the proposed procedure.     

Identification of copper sources in urban surface waters using the principal component analysis based on aquatic parameters

The goal of this work was to identify the sources of copper loads in surface urban waters using principal component analysis under the aquatic parameters data evaluation approach. Water samples from the Irai and Iguacu rivers were collected monthly during a 12-month period at two points located upstream and downstream of a metropolitan region. pH, total alkalinity, dissolved chloride, total suspended solids, dissolved organic matter, total recoverable copper, temperature, and precipitation data provided some reliable information concerning the characteristics and water quality of both rivers. Principal component analysis indicated seasonal and spatial effects on copper concentration and loads in both environments. During the rainy season, non-point sources such as urban run-off are believed to be the major source of copper in both cases. In contrast, during the lower precipitation period, the discharge of raw sewage seems to be the primary source of copper to the Iguacu River, which also exhibited higher total metal concentrations.