Characterizing effects of uncertainties in MSW composting process through a coupled fuzzy vertex and factorial-analysis approach

A coupled fuzzy vertex and factorial-analysis approach was developed in this study for systematically characterizing effects of uncertainties in a municipal solid waste composting process. A comprehensive composting process model was also embedded into the system framework and used to address substrate decomposition and biomass growth, as well as the interactions between moisture contents, temperatures, and oxygen concentrations. The applicability of the proposed method was verified through a custom-made pilot-scale composting system. Results from fuzzy simulation indicated that the fuzzy vertex method could effectively communicate implicit knowledge into dynamic simulations and thus provide valuable information for enhancing composting process control under uncertainty. The factorial analysis was effective in quantifying the proportion to which the uncertainty of each single or interactive effect of model parameters contributes to the overall uncertainty of the system outcomes. Thus, sensitive parameters that may lead to errors or unreasonable predictions can be determined. The proposed study system could not only be used in characterizing combined effects of uncertainties for composting processes, but was also applicable to many other environmental modelling systems.     

The effects of landscape-level disturbance on the composition of Minnesota caddisfly (Insecta: Trichoptera) trophic functional groups: evidence for ecosystem homogenization

Over 300,000 caddisfly specimens representing 249 species were collected from nearly 250 sites throughout Minnesota during 2000 and 2001 to determine the effects of human disturbance on the composition of caddisfly trophic functional groups at the landscape level. Canonical correspondence analysis determined that stream width was the most important variable influencing functional group composition in regions of the state with relatively low disturbance, and that differences in the caddisfly fauna between sizes of streams generally followed trends predicted by the river continuum concept. In regions of the state with moderate disturbance, both stream width and the percentage of disturbed habitat upstream of a site were important variables influencing functional group composition. In highly disturbed regions, no variables corresponded to changes in the composition of caddisfly functional groups. Instead, ecosystems were homogeneous: fine-particle filtering collectors dominated in all sizes of streams. The observed aquatic ecosystem homogenization is attributed mostly to input of fine-particle organic and inorganic sediment from extensive agriculture.     

Weather-mediated natural selection on arrival time in cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota)

An unusually long period of cold weather in May 1996 caused extensive mortality among insectivorous cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) in the northern and central Great Plains. We analyzed how viability selection affected spring arrival time in a migratory Nebraska population by comparing capture histories of survivors with those of birds known to have died and by documenting how arrival time changed in the year following the selection event. Surviving birds had significantly later first-capture dates (an index of arrival time) in the years prior to selection than those that died; a significant selection differential suggested directional selection for birds that arrived later. Colony sites were occupied significantly later following the selection event, and the distribution of first-capture dates in the season after selection was significantly shifted toward later arrivals. Offspring of the survivors tended to arrive later than birds of the same age prior to the selection event. While major weather-caused mortality events of this magnitude are rare in the study area, spells of cold weather severe enough to cause limited mortality are frequent in April and early May. At least 25 probable mortality events of varying severity were identified in the last 50 years based on climatological data. Periodic weather-mediated selection against early arrival constrains the cliff swallow’s breeding season and may partly prevent directional selection for earlier nesting. Received: 19 October 1999 / Received in revised form: 15 January 2000 / Accepted: 24 January 2000     

Assessing the Geographic Representativeness of Genebank Collections: the Case of Bolivian Wild Potatoes

Abstract: Genebank collection databases can be used for ecogeographical studies under the assumption that the accessions are a geographically unbiased sample. We evaluated the representativeness of a collection of wild potatoes from Bolivia and defined and assessed four types of bias: species, species-area, hotspot, and infrastructure. Species bias is the sampling of some species more often than others. Species-area bias is a sampling that is disproportionate to the total area in which a species is found. Hotspot bias is the disproportionate sampling of areas with high levels of diversity. Infrastructure bias is the disproportionate sampling of areas near roads and towns. Each of these biases is present in the Bolivian wild potato collection. The infrastructure bias was strong: 60% of all wild potato accessions were collected within 2 km of a road, as opposed to 22%, if collections had been made randomly. This analysis can serve as a guide for future collecting trips. It can also provide baseline information for the application of genebank data in studies based on geographic information systems.     

An Evaluation of Restoration Efforts in Fishless Lakes Stocked with Exotic Trout

Abstract: Detrimental effects of introduced fishes on native amphibian populations have prompted removal of introduced cutthroat ( Oncorhynchus clarki ), rainbow ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), and brook trout (  Salvelinus fontinalis ) from naturally fishless lakes at Mt. Rainier National Park, Washington ( U.S.A.). Using paleolimnological indicators (diatoms, invertebrates, and sediment characteristics) in eight 480-year-old sediment cores from eight lakes, we (1) derived estimates of baseline environmental conditions and natural variation, (2) assessed the effects of stocking naturally fishless lakes, and (3) determined whether lakes returned to predisturbance conditions after fish removal (restoration). Diatom floras were relatively stable between 315 and 90 years before present in all lakes; we used this time period to define lake-specific "baseline" conditions. Dissimilarity analyses of diatoms revealed sustained, dramatic changes in diatom floras that occurred approximately 80 years ago (when fish were introduced) in four of five stocked lakes, whereas the diatom floras in two unstocked lakes had not changed significantly in the last 315 years. Diatoms were not preserved in an eighth lake. State changes also occurred in two lakes over 200 years before European settlement of the Pacific Northwest. Preserved invertebrate densities fluctuated dramatically over time in all cores, providing a poor reference for assessing the effects of fishes. Nevertheless, fish-invertebrate interactions have been demonstrated in other paleolimnological studies and may be useful for lower-elevation or more productive lakes. Because diatom communities have not returned to predisturbance assemblages in restored lakes, even 20–30 years after fish removal, we conclude that Mt. Rainier lakes were not successfully restored by the removal of fishes.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

环境表现对金融利害攸关者的价值

公司财务表现与环境表现之间的联系日益明显.各公司可以通过促进后者而力求获得资助优势.公司环境表现对金融利害攸关者的价值随资助类型而异,同样也随环境改善的程度和具体细节而异.争取资助的公司,以及政府和非政府组织,应当熟悉不同的金融服务业及其具体需要和问题.