Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on Bird Species in a Relict Temperate Forest in Semiarid Chile

Abstract: We analyzed the structure and composition of a bird assemblage in a fragmented relict temperate forest located in northcentral Chile ( Fray Jorge National Park). In terms of species composition, the bird assemblage we found in Fray Jorge was more similar to southern temperate forest sites, located more than 1200 km south of Fray Jorge, than to localities found in nearby scrub habitats. The relict character and long-term isolation of the Fray Jorge forest provides a natural experiment with which to establish the potential long-term effects of fragmentation and isolation on southern Chilean temperate forests. Between May 1996 and March 1997, we conducted seasonal surveys of birds in six forest fragments, ranging in size from 0.5 to 22.5 ha, at Fray Jorge. The number of bird species at each forest fragment was positively correlated with fragment area during all seasons. The relict forest system had a steeper species-area slope than that reported for similar temperate-forest bird assemblages in forest fragments within Chiloé Island and for islands across the Chiloé Archipelago in southern Chile. In this regard, this bird fauna resembled a depauperate oceanic archipelago. This difference in area effects is likely a consequence of the minimization of rescue effects because of the absence of large source forest areas nearby and the long-term isolation of the system. In addition, the distribution of species among forest fragments in Fray Jorge was not random, showing a nested subset pattern. Thus, some species occur across all fragments, regardless of their area, and therefore are less affected by habitat fragmentation and less prone to local extinction. These results suggest that, for south-temperate forest birds, large fragments (or reserves) should afford better protection against extinction than small forest patches.     

Cougar Dispersal Patterns, Metapopulation Dynamics, and Conservation

Abstract: We examined cougar (   Puma concolor ) dispersal, emigration, and immigration in the San Andres Mountains, New Mexico, from 1985 to 1995 to quantify the effects of dispersal on the local population and surrounding subpopulations. We captured, tagged, and radio-collared animals to detect the arrival of new immigrants and dispersal characteristics of progeny. We found that cougars in southern New Mexico exhibited a metapopulation structure in which cougar subpopulations were separated by expanses of noncougar habitat and linked by dispersers. Of 43 progeny (n = 20 males , 23 females ) studied after independence, only 13 females exhibited philopatric behavior. Males dispersed significantly farther than females, were more likely to traverse large expanses of noncougar habitat, and were probably most responsible for nuclear gene flow between habitat patches. We estimated that an average of 8.5 progeny (i.e., cougars born in the study area) successfully emigrated from and 4.3 cougars successfully immigrated to the San Andres Mountains each year. Concurrently, an average of 4.1 progeny were recruited into the San Andres cougar population. Protected cougar subpopulations can contribute to metapopulation persistence by supplying immigrants to surrounding subpopulations that are affected by fragmentation or offtake by humans. Cougar population dynamics and dispersal behavior dictate that cougar management and conservation should be considered on a regional scale.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

Impact of continental margins in the Mediterranean Sea: Hints from the surface colour and temperature historical record

The surface colour and temperature fields of the Mediterranean Sea, as appearing in time series, of basin-wide images available in the CZCS (1979–1985) and AVHRR (1982–1991) historical archives, differentiate between basin interior and continental margins affected by coastal patterns, river plumes, and mesoscale features. The original data were processed to apply calibration factors, to correct for atmospheric contamination, and to estimate chlorophyll-like pigment concentration and surface temperature. Composites were derived, as monthly and annual means, using a fixed equal-area projection with a 1-km² pixel grid. Enhanced pigment values and lower temperatures along the northern coastal areas (i.e. the Ligurian, Provençal and Balearic basins, as well as the Adriatic, and Aegean Seas) have been associated with the impact of runoff from continental margins (i.e. both a direct impact due to the sediment load and one induced on the planktonic flora by the associated nutrient load) and with vertical mixing due to the prevailing winds (i.e. the Mistral in the northwest, the Bora in the Adriatic, the Etesians in the Aegean). The pattern of increasing pigments and decreasing temperatures in seen to develop in the monthly images from the coastal zone towards the open sea from summer to winter, and then back from winter to summer. The southern coastal areas show different values, namely lower pigments and higher temperatures (except in areas where the data are altered by signal contamination). It is suggested that differences in geomorphology and meteorology of the basin margins have an impact on both water biogeochemistry and dynamics, influencing the biooptical and thermal properties of the various sub-basins, and of the entire Mediterranean region.     

环境表现对金融利害攸关者的价值

公司财务表现与环境表现之间的联系日益明显.各公司可以通过促进后者而力求获得资助优势.公司环境表现对金融利害攸关者的价值随资助类型而异,同样也随环境改善的程度和具体细节而异.争取资助的公司,以及政府和非政府组织,应当熟悉不同的金融服务业及其具体需要和问题.