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51.
ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log10 streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log10 suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log10 streamflow versus log10 suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log10 streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.  相似文献   
52.
ABSTRACT: Increasing demands on western water are causing a mounting need for the conjunctive management of surface water and ground water resources. Under western water law, the senior water rights holder has priority over the junior water rights holder in times of water shortage. Water managers have been reluctant to conjunctively manage surface water and ground water resources because of the difficulty of quantification of the impacts to surface water resources from ground water stresses. Impacts from ground water use can take years to propagate through an aquifer system. Prediction of the degree of impact to surface water resources over time and the spatial distribution of impacts is very difficult. Response functions mathematically describe the relationship between a unit ground water stress applied at a specific location and stream depletion or aquifer water level change elsewhere in the system. Response functions can be used to help quantify the spatial and temporal impacts to surface water resources caused by ground water pumping. This paper describes the theory of response functions and presents an application of transient response functions in the Snake River Plain, Idaho. Transient response functions can be used to facilitate the conjunctive management of surface and ground water not only in the eastern Snake River Plain basin, but also in similar basins throughout the western United States.  相似文献   
53.
Organizational downsizing is often counterproductive and applied irrespective of past financial performance. The popularity of this tactic leads to the question of whether an executive's propensity to downsize is linked to characteristics such as uncertainty avoidance and risk tolerance, which can be examined at either an individual or societal level. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
54.
Model estimates of NOy and NHx deposition across Britain for 1996 (5 km square resolution) were applied as explanatory variables to account for national-scale, fine-grained changes in plant species composition between 1990 and 1998. Plant species data were recorded from up to 27 fixed plots located within a stratified random sample of 596 1 km2. The response variable was a cover-weighted Ellenberg fertility score for each plot. Analyses were carried out separately for woodlands, semi-natural grasslands and heaths/bogs. Most of the variation in the botanical response variable occurred between plots within squares and so could not be explained by the model deposition data. NHx deposition estimates accounted for significant, but small components of between 1 km2 variation in the change in Ellenberg score in grasslands (5.6%) and heath/bogs (9.8%) but not woodlands. NOy deposition estimates were not significantly associated with vegetation change. Linear models provided the best fit and the slope of the relationship was lower for heath/bogs than grasslands. Further signal attribution at sub-kilometre square scales requires the development of fine-grained models of N deposition that can be generalised across regional sampling domains.  相似文献   
55.
A multi-objective optimisation approach to water management   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
The management of river basins is complex especially when decisions about environmental flows are considered in addition to those concerning urban and agricultural water demand. The solution to these complex decision problems requires the use of mathematical techniques that are formulated to take into account conflicting objectives. Many optimization models exist for water management systems but there is a knowledge gap in linking bio-economic objectives with the optimum use of all water resources under conflicting demands. The efficient operation and management of a network of nodes comprising storages, canals, river reaches and irrigation districts under environmental flow constraints is challenging. Minimization of risks associated with agricultural production requires accounting for uncertainty involved with climate, environmental policy and markets. Markets and economic criteria determine what crops farmers would like to grow with subsequent effect on water resources and the environment. Due to conflicts between multiple goal requirements and the competing water demands of different sectors, a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework was developed to analyze production targets under physical, biological, economic and environmental constraints. This approach is described by analyzing the conflicts that may arise between profitability, variable costs of production and pumping of groundwater for a hypothetical irrigation area.  相似文献   
56.
Diazinon [O,O-diethyl O-2-isopropyl-6-methyl(pyrimidine-4-yl) phosphorothioate] and imidacloprid [1-(1-[6-chloro-3-pyridinyl]methyl)-N-nitro-2-imidazolidinimine] are applied to lawns for insect control simultaneously with nitrogenous fertilizers such as urea, but their potential effect on urease activity and nitrogen availability in turfgrass management has not been evaluated. Urease activity in enzyme assays, washed cell assays, and soil slurries was examined as a function of insecticide concentration. Intact cores from field sites were used to assess the effect of insecticide application on urease activity in creeping bentgrass (Agrostis palustris Huds.) and bluegrass (Poa pratensis L.) sod. Bacterial urease from Bacillus pasteurii and plant urease from jack bean [Canavalia ensiformis (L.) DC.] were unaffected by the insecticides. Both insecticides inhibited the growth of Proteus vulgaris, a urease-producing bacterium, but only diazinon significantly reduced urease activity in washed cells; neither insecticide inhibited urease activity in sonicated cells. Neither diazinon nor imidacloprid inhibited urease activity in Woolper soil (fine, mixed, mesic Typic Argiudoll) slurries, but diazinon slightly inhibited urease activity in Maury soil (fine, mixed, semiactive, mesic Typic Paleudalf) slurries. Imidacloprid had no effect on urease activity in creeping bentgrass or bluegrass sod at up to 10 times the commercial application rate. Diazinon briefly, but significantly, reduced urease activity in bluegrass sod. Co-application of imidacloprid and urea appears to be benign with respect to urease activity in soil and sod. Diazinon, in contrast, appears to have a significant, short-term, inhibitory effect on the microbial urease-producing community, but that effect depends on soil type.  相似文献   
57.
Sexual selection studies in cephalopods indicate that sperm competition is a central feature of their mating systems, yet this has not been studied experimentally in any detail. In 1998 we staged 20 matings of the cuttlefish, Sepia officinalis L., in the laboratory. Males rapidly initiated mating in the “head-to-head” position, with no apparent courtship. Mating lasted an average of 10 min (range 7 to 14 min). For the first 6 min (on average 63% of the mating duration), the male flushed strong jets of water directly at the female's buccal membrane, which sometimes resulted in the expulsion of parts of spermatangia placed there in recent matings. Then, in a single discrete movement that lasted an average of only 14 s, the male's modified fourth left arm – the hectocotylus – wrapped around a single large bundle of spermatophores (ca. 150 to 300) and transferred them to the female's buccal membrane. For the remainder of the mating (average 3 min, range 1.5 to 5.0 min), the hectocotylus repeatedly broke the spermatophores open, and manipulated them, so that sperm were released and many spermatangia were attached along the ventral buccal membrane, near the paired seminal receptacles. Approximately 140 spermatangia were attached in rows 3 to 5 deep around the ventral buccal membrane in a single mating; the rest were usually discarded during mating. Histology revealed that each of the seminal receptacles consists of a series of sperm storage bulbs connected by a central duct, which leads to a single pore at the surface of the buccal membrane. Baseline data on sperm motility were obtained, but the mechanism by which sperm enter the seminal receptacle remains unknown. Females seemed to initiate termination of mating, then males guarded their mates temporarily. These results, combined with other recent laboratory experiments, provide evidence that sperm competition may be a major feature of the mating system of S. officinalis. Received: 4 January 1999 / Accepted: 18 May 1999  相似文献   
58.
The distribution of heavy metal contaminated sediments in Foundry Cove, a freshwater embayment of the Hudson River, was examined twelve years after the discharging of wastes from a battery factory had ceased. Concentrations of Cd, Ni and Co were measured in surficial sediments (top 5 cm) and seven detailed depth profiles. Comparison with earlier surveys showed that metal levels of surficial sediments have been considerably reduced throughout the cove. Evidence suggests that this reduction may be largely due to burial rather than transport of metals out of the cove or a redistribution (via sediment resuspension and redeposition) within the cove. This is suggested by the presence of a peak in metal concentrations at a depth of several centimetres in depositional environments, a calculation showing the loss of waterborne cadmium to be much less than the amount of cadmium lost from the surficial sediment, and the absence of increased pollution in the cleaner parts of the cove. Despite improvement, metal levels remain extremely high, including a persistent 'hot-spot' with levels higher than 10 000 ppm Cd.  相似文献   
59.
Leachate samples with a high strength of ammonium-nitrogen (NH4+-N) were collected from a local landfill site in Hong Kong. Two experiments were carried out to study (1) the inhibition of microbial activity of activated sludge by NH4+-N and (2) the chemical precipitation of NH4+-N from leachate as a preliminary treatment prior to the activated sludge process. The experimental results demonstrated that the efficiency of COD removal decreased from 97.7% to 78.1%, and the dehydrogenase activity of activated sludge decreased from 9.29 to 4.93 microg TF/mg MLSS, respectively, when the NH4+-N concentration increased from 53 to 800 mg/l. The experiment also demonstrated that the NH4+-N in the leachate can be quickly precipitated as MgNH4PO4 x 6H2O after addition of MgCl2 x 6H2O + Na2HPO4 x 12H2O. The NH4+-N concentration was reduced from 5618 to 112 mg/l within 15 min when a molar ratio of Mg2+:NH+:PO4(3-) = 1:1:1 was used. The optimum pH to reach the minimum solubility of MgNH4PO4 x 6H2O was found to be in the range of 8.5-9.0. Attention should be given to the high salinity formed in the treated leachate by using MgCl2 x 6H2O + Na2HPO4 x 12H2O, which may affect microbial activity in the following biological treatment processes. Using two other combinations of chemicals [MgO + 85%H3PO4 and Ca(H2PO4)2 x H2O + MgSO4 x 7H2O] could minimise salinity generation after precipitation, while they were less efficient for NH4+-N removal.  相似文献   
60.
Using a combination of soil, land use and geological information, a map of Great Britain has been derived which indicates the sensitivity of surface waters to acidification. For the geological information, a slightly modified version of an available map was used which indicated the sensitivity of groundwaters to acidification. For soils, 1-km databases of soil information for England and Wales and for Scotland were employed to map the soil sensitivity as determined by buffering capacity. The derived soils map was modified to take account of agricultural liming in arable and managed grassland areas using the ITE Land Classification. The final map of surface water sensitivity was obtained by using a geographic information system overlay procedure which enabled each combination of soil and geology sensitivity to be uniquely defined. The final sensitivity classification was based upon expert knowledge and the experience of a similar sensitivity mapping exercise for Wales.  相似文献   
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