GIS-based Probability Assessment of Natural Hazards in Forested Landscapes of Central and South-Eastern Europe

We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards—windthrow, drought, and forest fire—for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.     

Modeling the Impacts of Two Bark Beetle Species Under a Warming Climate in the Southwestern USA: Ecological and Economic Consequences

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha (NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.     

Modeling the fate and transport of non-volatile organic chemicals in the agro-ecosystem: A case study of Cameron Highlands,Malaysia

Many pesticides used in agricultural activities are considered environmentally non-volatile. The main purpose of this paper is to develop multimedia model to be used as a tool to predict the overall fate and transport of non-volatile organic chemicals (NVOCs) dynamic in the agro-ecosystem. The model was developed based on the EQuilibrium Criterion (EQC) model for type 2 chemicals introduced by Mackay and colleagues in 1996. Mackay’s model only considered four environmental compartments, which are air, water, soil and sediment. The present model adds the vegetation compartment, in addition to previous compartments that shape the agro-ecosystem. The vegetation compartment is described by two sub-compartments consisting of the above ground plant (AGP) and roots. The model was parameterized for the Cameron Highlands region, Malaysia, and runs with an illustrative emission rate of 1 kg h^?1 into the air for three selected pesticides, namely, mancozeb, spinosad and chlorosulfuron. The simulation results with and without vegetation compartment were compared. The estimated results indicating that the AGP captures 99.9% of introduced NVOCs (i.e., of 100% or 1 kg h^?1) and transfers them to the ground below due to the slight degradation losses of 10^?4% and the non-volatility property of the evaluated chemicals. Root uptake of chlorosulfuron accounted the highest removal process from soil while degradation of spinosad in the soil is the major loss mechanism. Leaching to groundwater loss for mancozeb is about 2-fold greater than that of degradation, which together accounted the major removal process from soil. Based on the estimated results of mass distribution on the overall system, vegetation compartment accumulates 0.04%, 0.5% and 2.02% of the mancozeb, spinosad and chlorosulfuron, respectively.     

High efficiency chlorine removal from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pyrolysis with a gas–liquid fluidized bed reactor

In this research a gas–liquid fluidized bed reactor was developed for removing chlorine (Cl) from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) to favor its pyrolysis treatment. In order to efficiently remove Cl within a limited time before extensive generation of hydrocarbon products, the gas–liquid fluidized bed reactor was running at 280–320 °C, where hot N₂ was used as fluidizing gas to fluidize the molten polymer, letting the molten polymer contact well with N₂ to release Cl in form of HCl. Experimental results showed that dechlorination efficiency is mainly temperature dependent and 300 °C is a proper reaction temperature for efficient dechlorination within a limited time duration and for prevention of extensive pyrolysis; under this temperature 99.5% of Cl removal efficiency can be obtained within reaction time around 1 min after melting is completed as the flow rate of N₂ gas was set around 0.47–0.85 Nm³ kg^?1 for the molten PVC. Larger N₂ flow rate and additives in PVC would enhance HCl release but did not change the final dechlorination efficiency; and excessive N₂ flow rate should be avoided for prevention of polymer entrainment. HCl is emitted from PVC granules or scraps at the mean time they started to melt and the melting stage should be taken into consideration when design the gas–liquid fluidized bed reactor for dechlorination.     

Distribution of gelatinous macrozooplankton in the southern Black Sea during 1996–1999

In this study, spatial and temporal distributions of three gelatinous macrozooplankton, the scyphozoan Aurelia aurita and the ctenophores Pleurobrachia pileus and Mnemiopsis leidyi, were evaluated using the data obtained from seven southern Black Sea cruises carried out from 1996 to 1999. A comparison of nets used for the sampling of gelatinous macrozooplankton illustrated the superiority of the Hensen net with a larger mesh size (300 µm) over the Nansen net (112 µm). P. pileus was mainly concentrated below the mixed layer, while A. aurita and M. leidyi were generally confined to surface waters. Horizontally, P. pileus was associated with deep, offshore waters. P. pileus also displayed the least interannual variation of the three species. Biomass of A. aurita and M. leidyi varied substantially seasonally and inter-annually. In September 1999, the average biomass of M. leidyi was at its lowest level (12 g wet weight m^-2) since its explosive development at the end of the 1980s. This was associated with the appearance of the new predatory ctenophore Beroe ovata, which appeared in the Black Sea at the end of the 1990s.     

2000～2010年贵州省植被净初级生产力时空变化研究

为了探明贵州省植被净初级生产力(NPP)在2000~2010年的变化状况,以2000~2010年植被NPP数据为基础,运用ArcG IS和SPSS进行综合分析。结果表明:近11年间,草地、城镇用地、阔叶林、针叶林和湿地等面积呈增加趋势,而灌木林和农田则持续减少,其中农田面积变化尤为明显;2000~2010年贵州省植被NPP变化较大,NPP变化范围为778~889 g/(m2·a),平均值为828.1 g/(m2·a),NPP缓慢上升趋势;全省NPP分布有明显地域性差异,铜仁和六盘水为显著增加(P0.05),其余地州市增加缓慢(P0.05)。黔东南年均NPP最高((927±111)g/(m 2·a)),毕节最低((725±107)g/(m2·a))。NPP变化趋势为东南向西北方向递减,而往西北方向NPP波动程度明显;阔叶林和灌木林缓慢下降,而针叶林和针阔混交林则上升。NPP表现为针阔混交林阔叶林针叶林灌木林。     

臭氧预氧化对饮用水处理作用的实验研究

目前,饮用水污染严重,常规工艺处理出现了水质不能达标的现象.本文主要研究在常规工艺增加预臭氧-活性炭过滤工艺,对不同的预臭氧投加量进行实验.结果表明:预臭氧投加量,对工艺各单元的处理效果有一定关系,随着投加量的增加,各单元对浊度、CODMn、UV254的去除呈现增大后趋于平缓甚至下降的趋势,而最佳臭氧的投加量为0.65 mg/L.为实际预臭氧-活性炭过滤工艺的运行提供指导.     

Evaluation of the ecological status with benthic indices in the coastal system： the case of Bohai Bay （China）

Based on biologic and environmental materials collected from coastal areas of Bohai Bay （China） in April, 2008, three biotic indices （AZTI＇s Marine Biotic Index （AMBI）, Shannon-Wiener Index and W-statistic） were applied together to evaluate the ecological status of the sampling area. The results showed a clear spatial gradient from a worse ecological status in the near-shore areas （especially around Haihe and Jiyun River Estuaries） to a better status in the offshore areas. While all the three indices could assist decision makers in visualizing spatial changes of organic pollutants in Bohai Bay, two indices, i. e., AMBI and Shannon-Wiener index, were effective in distinguishing sites from Haihe River Estuary, Jiyun River Estuary and other area. However, W-statistic can＇t tell the differences between estuaries and other area. It would be explained that organic pollutants and/or other environ- mental stresses in Bohai Bay were not strong enough to reduce the size ofmacrozoobenthos, which may cause both of the abundance and biomass curves crossed. To our knowledge, this is the first time that several benthic indices were used to assess the benthic ecological status in Bohai Bay, which gave the similar results. Furthermore, there is indication that the ecological status is related to excess input of wastewater along main rivers and outlets. In a word, AMBI, Shannon-Wiener Index and W-statistic could be able to assess the benthic ecological status of Bohai Bay under the organic pollutants pressure.     

Investigation of impact of environmental changes on precipitation pattern of Pakistan

In this paper, variability in precipitation pattern of Pakistan due to environmental and climatic changes has been studied. Maps have been generated to depict global precipitation variation. Precipitation data of 25 stations of Pakistan have been used. These data were taken from Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan. The results of two global climate models, namely Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research’s third generation general circulation model and National Center for Atmospheric Research’s first generation precipitation circulation model for A2 scenario have been applied to investigate the changes. It is observed that precipitation pattern will change significantly in the future. The occurrence of precipitation in all seasons for Pakistan is expected to increase with almost uniform distribution across a season. Average annual precipitation of the country will undergo an increase in the range of +57 to +71 % as compared to average of the base period.