蒙特卡洛模拟方法在苯致癌风险评价中的应用

在将PBPK模型与剂量-反应的多阶模型相结合用于苯职业暴露的致癌风险评价研究的基础上,首先利用Euler数值解法,借助Excel电子表格对模型进行求解;然后针对风险评价中存在的不确定性,采用Crystal ball软件的蒙特卡洛模拟方法对致癌风险进行概率分布规律研究;通过实地收集数据,使用该方法对某涂料生产项目进行苯暴露致癌风险定量分析.理论分析和实地验证表明,该方法计算出的风险值符合实际发病情况.该方法可以定量评估对人体有害的职业暴露危险源,提供工人致癌风险的概率数据.     

基于MMAS-BP的煤与瓦斯突出强度预测

为提高煤与瓦斯突出强度的预测精度及预测速度,用最大最小蚂蚁系统和BP神经网络相结合的方法进行预测模型设计。根据煤与瓦斯突出强度及其主要影响因素之间的关系数据,建立其神经网络的预测模型。以网络的权值和阈值为自变量,网络误差为目标函数,通过蚁群算法的迭代运算,搜索出误差的全局最小值,以实现BP神经网络的初始权值、阈值优化,并用优化后的网络进行瓦斯突出强度的预测。实例结果表明,MMAS-BP算法的预测值均方差为0.089,约为BP神经网络的0.1倍,且输出稳定性好,适用于煤与瓦斯突出强度的预测。     

非承重草砖墙体的耐火性能试验分析

为研究草砖房的耐火性能,根据目前使用最多的砖混框架结构草砖房的结构特点,采用尺寸为1 000 mm×480 mm×360 mm草砖砌成宽3 000 mm,高3 000 mm,厚400 mm的非承重的草砖墙体作为试验用构件,利用大型垂直构件耐火试验炉,采用标准火灾升温曲线进行升温,对实体构件进行耐火性能试验。采用K型热电偶记录背火面的温升情况,研究其火灾试验过程中的耐火完整性和耐火隔热性,判断其耐火极限。试验结果表明,非承重草砖墙体具有良好的耐火性能,其耐火极限不低于3.0 h。同时,在这种结构的草砖墙体中,草砖外侧的抹灰层有效地阻挡火灾初期火的侵蚀;钢丝网片有效地起到固定草砖的作用;紧密压实的草砖其内部没有足够的可助燃的氧,且草砖表层暴露于火焰中形成炭化层阻止了火焰进一步向其内部蔓延。     

Markov reliability model research of monitoring process in digital main control room of nuclear power plant

Monitoring process is an important part in a high safety digital main control room of nuclear power plant (NPP), it is the source extracted information and found abnormal information in time. As the human factors events arisen from monitoring process recently take place more and more frequent, the authors propose a reliability Markov model to effectively decrease these abnormal events. The model mainly analyzes next monitoring object probability in terms of current information and plant state. The authors divide digital human–machine interface into two parts that are referred as logical homogeneous Markov and logical heterogeneous Markov. For the former, a series of methods of probability evaluation are proposed, such as, Markov transition probability with condition, probability distributed function with human factors, system state and alarm; for the latter, the authors propose the calculation of probability of correlation degree between last time and next time and probability calculation methods with multi-father nodes. The methods can effectively estimate the transition probability from a monitoring component to next monitoring component at time t, can effectively analyze which information is more important in next monitoring process and effectively find more useful information in time t + 1, so that the human factors events in monitoring process can greatly be decreased.     

在役高压设备的监测与安全评定

随着新的无损检测技术和断裂力学的发展,对含缺陷结构承压容器的安全评估已成为可能.综述了在役高压容器安全监测的特点和新的无损检测技术的应用进展,提出了建立基于安全监测数据库系统的在役高压设备检测方案和安全评定方法.     

Determination of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) in agricultural soils near a petrochemical complex in Guangzhou,China

The total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) pollution in regional agricultural soils was investigated. Seventy soil samples collected from surface layers (0–20 cm) and horizons of five selected pedons in the vicinity of a petrochemical complex in Guangzhou, China were analyzed, and the vertical variation and spatial variability of TPH were evaluated. The TPH concentration in top soils around the petrochemical complex ranged from 1,179.3 to 6,354.9 mg kg^− 1, with the average of 2,676.6 mg kg^− 1. Furthermore, significant differences between land-use types showed that the TPH concentration in top soils was strongly influenced by accidental spills. Both the TPH trends in pedons and the identified hot-spot areas also showed that the accidental explosions or burning accidents were mainly responsible for the pollution. The results reported here suggest that the regular monitoring and inspection shall be conducted for safety and to avoid or minimize the accidents, and the effective measures should be taken to remediate the contaminated areas and to assure that the important industrialization of Guangzhou area would not mean human health risks near the petrochemical complex.     

Evaluating the difference between the normalized difference vegetation index and net primary productivity as the indicators of vegetation vigor assessment at landscape scale

Both the net primary productivity (NPP) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are commonly used as indicators to characterize vegetation vigor, and NDVI has been used as a surrogate estimator of NPP in some cases. To evaluate the reliability of such surrogation, here we examined the quantitative difference between NPP and NDVI in their outcomes of vegetation vigor assessment at a landscape scale. Using Landsat ETM+ data and a process model, the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, NPP distribution was mapped at a resolution of 90 m, and total NDVI during the growing season was calculated in Heihe River Basin, Northwest China in 2002. The results from a comparison between the NPP and NDVI classification maps show that there existed a substantial difference in terms of both area and spatial distribution between the assessment outcomes of these two indicators, despite that they are strongly correlated. The degree of difference can be influenced by assessment schemes, as well as the type of vegetation and ecozone. Overall, NDVI is not a good surrogate of NPP as the indicators of vegetation vigor assessment in the study area. Nonetheless, NDVI could serve as a fairish surrogate indicator under the condition that the target region has low vegetation cover and the assessment has relatively coarse classification schemes (i.e., the class number is small). It is suggested that the use of NPP and NDVI should be carefully selected in landscape assessment. Their differences need to be further evaluated across geographic areas and biomes.     

Occurrence and characterization of selected organochlorine contaminants in outdoor dust collected from Xinxiang,a fast developing city in North China

As facile “environmental media”, the outdoor dust may reflect the changes of contaminants in environment more promptly. In the present study, selected organochlorine contaminants (OCs) include hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and pentachlorobenzene (PeCB) were detected in 20 outdoor dust samples collected from Xinxiang City. The concentrations of ΣHCHs, ΣDDTs, HCB, and PeCB in dust were in the range of 0.18–5.05 ng/g dry weight, 0.44–13.50 ng/g dry weight, 0.13–51.61 ng/g dry weight and ND-0.74 ng/g dry weight, respectively. Long-range transport, historical use, and recent impact of impure pesticides might be the main sources of OCs in the outdoor dust. The results of this study indicated that impure pesticide application maybe an important source of DDTs and HCB in the environment.     

新建住宅小区噪声验收监测方法初探

住宅小区噪声监测是近年来房地产验收过程中的重要环节,围绕新建住宅小区噪声验收监测方法、评价标准、布点原则等方面进行初步探讨,并根据某住宅小区噪声验收监测实例,提出了相应的建议。     

An estimation on budget and control of phosphorus in the Changjiang River catchment

Based on field investigations in the Changjiang River mouth, rain sampling from the river's upper reaches to the mouth, historical data, and relevant literatures, the budget and major control factors of total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) in the river catchment were estimated and discussed from the catchment scale. It will supply a base for effective controlling P concentration in the Changjiang River and its mouth. Results show that the export fluxes of TP and DIP were mainly controlled by the river runoff. The TP and DIP in the Changjiang River came mainly from agricultural nonpoint source P losses from fertilizer and soil and point sources of industrial waste and residential sewage discharges. The export fluxes of TP and DIP in the river mouth were only 27.0% and 28.3% of the imports from the river catchment, respectively, suggesting that most of P were removed in transportation. A mass of freshwater marshes in the river catchment were the main areas to remove P. Significant increasing in utilization of fertilizer P and incessant increasing in water and soil loss areas were the primary reasons of agricultural nonpoint source P losses. How to decrease the agricultural nonpoint source P loss from the catchment scale is a key controlling P concentration in the Changjiang River and its mouth. The point source industrial waste P discharge has been primarily treated in the river catchment, but the residential sewage P discharge needs further control.