Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed.Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies.Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management.     

Use of a food web model to evaluate the factors responsible for high PCB fish concentrations in Lake Ellasjøen, a high Arctic Lake

Background, aim, and scope

Lake Ellasjøen, located in the Norwegian high arctic, contains the highest concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) ever recorded in fish and sediment from high arctic lakes, and concentrations are more than 10 times greater than in nearby Lake Øyangen. These elevated concentrations in Ellasjøen have been previously attributed, in part, to contaminant loadings from seabirds that use Ellasjøen, but not Øyangen, as a resting area. However, other factors, such as food web structure, organism growth rate, weight, lipid content, lake morphology, and nutrient inputs from the seabird guano, also differ between the two systems. The aim of this study is to evaluate the relative influence of these factors as explanatory variables for the higher PCB fish concentrations in Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen, using both a food web model and empirical data.

Methods

The model is based on previously developed models but parameterized for Lakes Ellasjøen and Øyangen using measured data wherever possible. The model was applied to five representative PCB congeners (PCB 105, 118, 138, 153, and 180) using measured sediment and water concentrations as input data and evaluated with previously collected food web data.

Results

Modeled concentrations are within a factor of two of measured concentrations in 60% and 40% of the cases in Lakes Ellasjøen and Øyangen, respectively, and within a factor of 10 in 100% of the cases in both lakes. In many cases, this is comparable to the variability associated with the data as well as the efficacy of the predictions of other food web model applications.

Discussion

We next used the model to quantify the relative importance of five major differences between Ellasjøen and Øyangen by replacing variables representing each of these factors in the Ellasjøen model with those from Øyangen, in separate simulations. The model predicts that the elevated PCB concentrations in Ellasjøen water and sediment account for 49%–58% of differences in modeled fish PCB concentrations between lakes. These elevated sediment and, to a lesser extent, water concentrations in Ellasjøen are due to PCB loadings from seabird guano. However, sediment–water fugacity ratios of PCBs are consistently greater in Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen, which suggests that internal lake processes also contribute to differences in sediment and water concentrations. We hypothesize that the nutrients associated with guano influence sediment–water fugacity ratios of PCBs by increasing the stock of pelagic algae. As both these algae and the guano settle, their organic carbon content is degraded faster than PCBs, which causes an extra magnification step in Ellasjøen before these detrital particles are consumed by benthic organisms, which are in turn consumed by fish. The model predicts that the remaining ～50% of the differences in PCB concentrations observed between the fish of these lakes are due to other subtle differences in their food web structures.

Conclusions

In conclusion, based on the results of a food web model, we found that the most dominant factors influencing the higher PCB fish concentrations in Lake Ellasjøen compared with Øyangen are the higher sediment and water concentrations in Ellasjøen, caused by seabird guano. Together, sediment and water are predicted to account for 49%–58% of differences in fish concentrations between lakes. Although seabird guano provides a source of nutrients to the lake, in addition to contaminants, empirical data and indirect model results suggest that nutrients are not leading to decreased bioaccumulation, in contrast to what has been observed in temperate, pelagic food webs.

Recommendations and perspectives

The results of this study emphasize the importance of considering even small differences in food web structure when comparing bioaccumulation in two lakes; although the food web structures of Ellasjøen and Øyangen differ only slightly, the model predicts that these differences account for most of the remaining ～50% of the differences in PCB fish concentrations between the two lakes. This study further demonstrates the utility of food web models as we were able to predict and tease apart the influence of various factors responsible for the elevated concentrations in the fish from Lake Ellasjøen, which would have been difficult using the field data alone.     

Air pollutant concentrations near three Texas roadways, part II: Chemical characterization and transformation of pollutants

Spatial gradients of vehicular emitted air pollutants were measured in the vicinity of three roadways in the Austin, Texas area: (1) State Highway 71 (SH-71), a heavily traveled arterial highway dominated by passenger vehicles; (2) Interstate 35 (I-35), a limited access highway north of Austin in Georgetown; and (3) Farm to Market Road 973 (FM-973), a heavily traveled surface roadway with significant truck traffic. A mobile monitoring platform was used to characterize the gradients of CO and NO_x concentrations with increased distance from each roadway, while concentrations of carbonyls in the gas-phase and fine particulate matter mass and composition were measured at stationary sites upwind and at one (I-35 and FM-973) or two (SH-71) downwind sites. Regardless of roadway type or wind direction, concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) returned to background levels within a few hundred meters of the roadway. Under perpendicular wind conditions, CO, NO and NO_x concentrations decreased exponentially with increasing distance perpendicular to the roadways. The decay rate for NO was more than a factor of two greater than for CO, and it comprised a larger fraction of NO_x closer to the roadways than further downwind suggesting the potential significance of near roadway chemical processing as well as atmospheric dilution. Concentrations of most carbonyl species decreased with distance downwind of SH-71. However, concentrations of acetaldehyde and acrolein increased farther downwind of SH-71, suggesting chemical generation from the oxidation of primary vehicular emissions. The behavior of particle-bound organic species was complex and further investigation of the size-segregated chemical composition of particulate matter (PM) at increasing downwind distances from roadways is warranted. Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) mass concentrations, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), hopanes, and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations generally exhibited concentrations that decreased with distance downwind of SH-71. Concentrations of organic carbon (OC) increased from upwind concentrations immediately downwind of SH-71 and continued to increase further downwind from the roadway. This behavior may have primarily resulted from condensation of semi-volatile organic species emitted from vehicle sources with transport downwind of the roadway.     

Ultrafine particles near a major roadway in Raleigh,North Carolina: Downwind attenuation and correlation with traffic-related pollutants

Ultrafine particles (UFPs, diameter < 100 nm) and co-emitted pollutants from traffic are a potential health threat to nearby populations. During summertime in Raleigh, North Carolina, UFPs were simultaneously measured upwind and downwind of a major roadway using a spatial matrix of five portable industrial hygiene samplers (measuring total counts of 20–1000 nm particles). While the upper sampling range of the portable samplers extends past the defined “ultrafine” upper limit (100 nm), the 20–1000 nm number counts had high correlation (Pearson R = 0.7–0.9) with UFPs (10–70 nm) measured by a co-located research-grade analyzer and thus appear to be driven by the ultrafine range. Highest UFP concentrations were observed during weekday morning work commutes, with levels at 20 m downwind from the road nearly fivefold higher than at an upwind station. A strong downwind spatial gradient was observed, linearly approximated over the first 100 m as an 8% drop in UFP counts per 10 m distance. This result agreed well with UFP spatial gradients estimated from past studies (ranging 5–12% drop per 10 m). Linear regression of other vehicle-related air pollutants measured in near real-time (10-min averages) against UFPs yielded moderate to high correlation with benzene (R² = 0.76), toluene (R² = 0.49), carbon monoxide (R² = 0.74), nitric oxide (R² = 0.80), and black carbon (R² = 0.65). Overall, these results support the notion that near-road levels of UFPs are heavily influenced by traffic emissions and correlate with other vehicle-produced pollutants, including certain air toxics.     

Impact of large scale circulation on European summer surface ozone and consequences for modelling forecast

In this study, we investigate the benefit for European ozone simulation of using day-to-day varying chemical boundary conditions produced by a global chemical weather forecast platform instead of climatological monthly means at the frontiers of a regional model. We performed two simulations over Europe using the regional (0.5 × 0.5°) CHIMERE CTM forced by global scale simulations based on the LMDz-INCA CTM. For summer 2005, ozone differences exceeding 20 ppb can be punctually found between these two simulations in the borders of the domain. The mean of the differences ranges between 0 and 3 ppb beyond 15° of the frontiers of the regional model.Correlations with ground-based ozone measurements at more than 400 stations are slightly increased by the use of daily boundary conditions. The simulation of the temporal variability is significantly enhanced in particular for the daily means and daily maxima. As expected, the gain is higher at the borders of the regional domain.The change of percentile distribution shows that the net impact of high temporal resolution boundary conditions is not of major concern for surface ozone peaks which are mainly due to local photochemistry. The use of daily boundary conditions is however necessary to correctly simulate concentrations in the 20–35 ppb range which are of crucial interest for human and vegetation exposure effects.     

Ultrafine particle fluxes above four major European cities

Little information is known about the behaviour of ultrafine particles (UFP) on a citywide scale. Total particle number flux, dominated by UFP, and other meteorological parameters were collected from tower sites in Manchester, London, Edinburgh and Gothenburg between 1999 and 2006 using the eddy covariance technique. Averaged diurnal cycles were produced for particle number flux, concentration, sensible heat flux, emission velocity, friction velocity, wind speed and temperature. UFP flux cycles showed clear diurnal trends which were linked to traffic activity and local sources. Wind sector analysis showed contributions to flux from local heavily urbanised areas. A simple parameterised model linking UFP flux to traffic activity, sensible heat and friction velocity above the city was produced.     

Influence of air mass source region on nanoparticle events and hygroscopicity in central Virginia,U.S.

During autumn, 2006, variation in the frequency of aerosol nucleation events, as inferred from nanoparticle growth events, and associated hygroscopicity were investigated as a function of air mass transport history at a mixed deciduous forest in central Virginia, U.S. Above-canopy size distributions of aerosols between 0.012 and 0.700 μm diameter, size-resolved particle hygroscopicity at eight dry diameters between 0.012 and 0.400 μm, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity were characterized. Air mass back trajectories were clustered to identify source regions. Growth events were most frequent in fast-moving air masses (mean = 9 m s^?1) that originated over the north central U.S. Under these flow regimes, mean values for preexisting sub-μm aerosol number concentrations (4700 cm^?3), corresponding surface area (142 μm² cm^?3), air temperature (6.2 °C), and relative humidity (RH, 49.4%) were relatively low compared to other regimes. Under stagnant flow conditions (mean = 3 m s^?1), mean number concentrations were higher (>6000 cm^?3) and size fractions <0.1 μm diameter exhibited enhanced hygroscopicity compared to other source regions. These results indicate that precursors emitted into relatively clean, cold, and dry air transported over the southeastern U.S. reacted to form condensable intermediates that subsequently produced new aerosols via nucleation and growth. This pathway was an important source for CCN. During events in October, nanoparticles were produced in greater numbers and grew more rapidly compared to November and December.     

Temperature dependence of secondary organic aerosol

Temperature was found to have a dramatic effect on secondary organic aerosol formation from two ozonolysis systems, cyclohexene and α-pinene. Isothermal experiments were conducted for both systems where the lowest temperature, 278 K, formed approximately 2.5–3 times and 5–6 times the SOA formed at 300 K and 318 K, respectively. Changing the cyclohexene system temperature to a different isothermal experimental set point after completion of SOA formation did not lead to sufficient condensation/evaporation to reproduce the SOA formation at other temperature set points. When the system temperature was cycled between two set points at the end of an experiment, the α-pinene system showed reversibility between the initial temperature 318 K and 300 K. For temperature cycles between the initial temperature of 300 K–318 K, an irreversible loss of mass is observed after the first heating cycle with reversibility observed between subsequent temperature cycles. The SOA formed at 278 K was reversible over a 22 K range but was unable to evaporate sufficiently to match the SOA mass formed at 300 K. Hygroscopicity measurements, taken after the completion of SOA formation, indicate that hygroscopicity of the aerosol is also a function of temperature and that the aerosol does not continue to be oxidized after initial growth is complete. The differing hygroscopicity of the semi-volatile component of the aerosol is evident during system temperature changes after completion of the experiment.     

Characterization of PM2.5-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Atlanta—Seasonal variations at urban,suburban, and rural ambient air monitoring sites

Twenty-eight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and methylated PAHs (Me-PAH) were measured in daily PM_2.5 samples collected at an urban site, a suburban site, and a rural site in and near Atlanta during 2004 (5 samples/month/site). The suburban site, located near a major highway, had higher PM_2.5-bound PAH concentrations than did the urban site, and the rural site had the lowest PAH levels. Monthly variations are described for concentrations of total PAHs (∑PAHs) and individual PAHs. PAH concentrations were much higher in cold months than in warm months, with average monthly ∑PAH concentrations at the urban and suburban-highway monitoring sites ranging from 2.12 to 6.85 ng m^?3 during January–February and November–December 2004, compared to 0.38–0.98 ng m^?3 during May–September 2004. ∑PAH concentrations were found to be well correlated with PM_2.5 and organic carbon (OC) within seasons, and the fractions of PAHs in PM_2.5 and OC were higher in winter than in summer. Methyl phenanthrenes were present at higher levels than their un-substituted homologue (phenanthrene), suggesting a petrogenic (unburned petroleum products) input. Retene, a proposed tracer for biomass burning, peaked in March, the month with the highest acreage and frequency of prescribed burning and unplanned fires, and in December, during the high residential wood-burning season, indicating that retene might be a good marker for burning of all biomass materials. In contrast, potassium peaked only in December, indicating that it might be a more specific tracer for wood-burning.     

Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols:(2) Global health impact

In this second of two companion papers, we quantify for the first time the global impact on premature mortality of the inter-continental transport of fine aerosols (including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, and mineral dust) using the global modeling results of (Liu et al., 2009). Our objective is to estimate the number of premature mortalities in each of ten selected continental regions resulting from fine aerosols transported from foreign regions in approximately year 2000. Our simulated annual mean population-weighted (P-W) concentrations of total PM2.5 (aerosols with diameter less than 2.5 μm) are highest in East Asia (EA, 30 μg m^?3) and lowest in Australia (3.6 μg m^?3). Dust is the dominant component of PM2.5 transported between continents. We estimate global annual premature mortalities (for adults age 30 and up) due to inter-continental transport of PM2.5 to be nearly 380 thousand (K) in 2000. Approximately half of these deaths occur in the Indian subcontinent (IN), mostly due to aerosols transported from Africa and the Middle East (ME). Approximately 90K deaths globally are associated with exposure to foreign (i.e., originating outside a receptor region) non-dust PM2.5. More than half of the premature mortalities associated with foreign non-dust aerosols are due to aerosols originating from Europe (20K), ME (18K) and EA (15K); and nearly 60% of the 90K deaths occur in EA (21K), IN (19K) and Southeast Asia (16K). The lower and higher bounds of our estimated 95% confidence interval (considering uncertainties from the concentration–response relationship and simulated aerosol concentrations) are 18% and 240% of the estimated deaths, respectively, and could be larger if additional uncertainties were quantified. We find that in 2000 nearly 6.6K premature deaths in North America (NA) were associated with foreign PM2.5 exposure (5.5K from dust PM2.5). NA is least impacted by foreign PM2.5 compared to receptors on the Eurasian continent. However, the number of premature mortalities associated with foreign aerosols in NA (mostly occurring in the U.S.) is comparable to the reduction in premature mortalities expected to result from tightening the U.S. 8-h O₃ standard from 0.08 ppmv to 0.075 ppmv. International efforts to reduce inter-continental transport of fine aerosol pollution would substantially benefit public health on the Eurasian continent and would also benefit public health in the United States.