实施西部开发战略应注意资源开发区的环境保护问题

实施西部开发战略应注意矿产资源开发、土地资源开发、水资源开发、森林资源开发、草地资源开发、农业资源开发、生物资源开发和旅游资源开发等活动的环境保护问题，本文就此问题提出建议。     

基于F-H方法的冲突局势稳定性分析方法及其应用

冲突是一类普遍的社会现象,基于元对策的F H冲突分析方法已经在水资源冲突管理领域得到了广泛的应用。在深入分析F H方法原理的基础上,提出了一种考虑决策者对冲突问题预见能力的冲突局势稳定性分析方法,寻求冲突问题的均衡解。在局势稳定性分析过程中,当局中人基于个人预见水平不存在单方改进某可行局势的动机时,该局势对此局中人而言是稳定的。当全体局中人都认为某可行局势是稳定的,则此局势称为冲突问题的均衡点。最后,该方法被运用到湖北省宜昌市黄柏河流域水资源冲突问题中,模拟结果表明宜昌市水电局同时采取“激励合作”“强化管理”、东风渠灌区管理局“增加引水”、黄柏河流域管理局“追求效益”是最稳定的一种策略组合。提出的冲突局势稳定性分析为寻求冲突均衡提供了一种可行方法。     

Aerosol transmission,an indispensable route of COVID-19 spread: case study of a department-store cluster

• Aerosol transmission is an indispensable route of COVID-19 spread. • Different outbreak sites have different epidemiologic feature. • SRAS-CoV-2 can exist for a long time in aerosol. • SRAS-CoV-2 RNA can be detected in aerosol in diverse places. • Some environmental factors can impact SARS-CoV-2 transportation in aerosol. Patients with COVID-19 have revealed a massive outbreak around the world, leading to widespread concerns in global scope. Figuring out the transmission route of COVID-19 is necessary to control further spread. We analyzed the data of 43 patients in Baodi Department Store (China) to supplement the transmission route and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in a cluster outbreak. Incubation median was estimated to endure 5.95 days (2–13 days). Almost 76.3% of patients sought medical attention immediately upon illness onset. The median period of illness onset to hospitalization and confirmation were 3.96 days (0–14) and 5.58 days (1–21), respectively. Patients with different cluster case could demonstrate unique epidemiological characteristics due to the particularity of outbreak sites. SRAS-CoV-2 can be released into the surrounding air through patient’s respiratory tract activities, and can exist for a long time for long-distance transportation. SRAS-CoV-2 RNA can be detected in aerosol in different sites, including isolation ward, general ward, outdoor, toilet, hallway, and crowded public area. Environmental factors influencing were analyzed and indicated that the SARS-CoV-2 transportation in aerosol was dependent on temperature, air humidity, ventilation rate and inactivating chemicals (ozone) content. As for the infection route of case numbers 2 to 6, 10, 13, 16, 17, 18, 20 and 23, we believe that aerosol transmission played a significant role in analyzing their exposure history and environmental conditions in Baodi Department Store. Aerosol transmission could occur in some cluster cases when the environmental factors are suitable, and it is an indispensable route of COVID-19 spread.     

Transition to a low-carbon city: lessons learned from Suzhou in China

Climate change has become one of the most serious challenges facing humanity; developing a low-carbon economy provides new opportunities for addressing this issue. Building a low-carbon city has been pursued by people with a high degree of enthusiasm in China. Different from actions at the national level and distinct from practices of developed countries, low-carbon development in Chinese cities should be placed on diverse concerns. Taking Suzhou of Jiangsu Province of China as a case city, this paper adopts a scenario analysis approach to explore strategic focal points in the transition to a low-carbon city. Within this transition, we mainly focus on the different contributions from two factors-economic restructuring and technological upgrading. Scenario analysis results show that 1) in the case of no breakthrough technologies, it is difficult to achieve absolute emission reductions; 2) technologies involved in optimizing energy structure and improving energy efficiency of basic service sectors should be highly emphasized in local planning; 3) in comparison with technological upgrading, economic structural adjustment could be a stronger contributor to mitigation, which is one of the main differences from developed countries. However, the key issue of economic restructuring is to promote the growth of emerging low-carbon industries, which requires not only a strategic choice of new industries but also an introduction of advanced low-carbon technologies. It is also found that establishing a local carbon emissions accounting system is a prerequisite and the first priority for realizing a low-carbon transition and government capacity buildings should be strengthened accordingly.     

Multiple source spatial cluster detection via multi-criteria analysis

Multiple data sources are essential to provide reliable information regarding the emergence of potential health threats, compared to single source methods. Spatial Scan Statistics have been adapted to analyze multivariate data sources, but only ad hoc procedures have been devised to address the problem of selecting the most likely cluster and computing its significance. In this work, information from multiple data sources of disease surveillance is incorporated to achieve more coherent spatial cluster detection using tools from multi-criteria analysis. The best cluster solutions are found by maximizing two objective functions simultaneously, based on the concept of dominance. To evaluate the statistical significance of solutions, a statistical approach based on the concept of attainment function is used. The multi-criteria approach has several advantages: the representation of the evaluation function for each data source is clear, and does not suffer from an artificial, and possibly confusing mixture with the other data source evaluations; it is possible to attribute, in a rigorous way, the statistical significance of each candidate cluster; and it is possible to analyze and pick-up the best cluster solutions, as given naturally by the non-dominated set. The methodology is illustrated with real datasets.     

个人乘用车用可替代燃料与我国未来的选择

个人乘用车排放量占道路交通运输二氧化碳(CO2)排放量的三分之一。因此,逐步实现其燃料由传统石化燃料汽柴油向新能源转变是交通运输行业低碳减排和绿色发展的重要抓手之一。本文对当前可供个人乘用车使用的4大类新能源即生物燃油、燃料乙醇、氢和电的属性,特别是其CO2减排效果和使用成本进行了分析和对比,并对新能源加注(充电)设施在欧盟和美国的布局战略和实施成果进行了介绍。结合欧美的实践和中国的实际,本文提出了未来个人乘用车用可替代燃油布局的建设,建议我国直接从传统石化汽油跨越至氢和/或电,并将其作为未来个人乘用车的燃料。     

规划方案下清洁发展机制介绍与评价

规划方案下清洁发展机制（PCDM）,作为完善现有清洁发展机制（CDM）而提出。PCDM通过形成规模效益,推动社会向低碳经济转型,并进一步为发展中国家参与CDM提供机会,PCDM的改进最突出的体现于对技术转让的设计上。因此,本文在简要介绍PCDM的基础上,对PCDM分析评价。提出如何选择适合开发PCDM领域,并指出PCDM在技术引进中的作用。     

紫外光降解高浓度氯苯气体的研究

为评价紫外光降解作为高浓度挥发性有机物生物预处理的可行性,系统考察了其对高浓度氯苯气体的去除性能及其影响因素.所考察的影响因素包括紫外光波长、进口ρ(氯苯)、空塔停留时间和气体相对湿度等.结果表明:复合254和185 nm波长紫外光照射对氯苯的去除效果优于单一254 nm波长;紫外光降解反应器的进口ρ(氯苯)在2 300～2600 mg/m3,空塔停留时间为27 s时,对氯苯气体的去除率可达40%,继续延长空塔停留时间对氯苯去除率的提高作用有限;进口ρ(氯苯)在150～3 000 mg/m3时,氯苯去除速率随进口浓度单调增加,当高于3 000 mg/m3时,氯苯去除速率基本保持不变;增加气体相对湿度可以提高紫外光降解反应器对氯苯的去除效果.      

侧向风速作用下聚氨酯泡沫双火源火蔓延研究

为探究环境风作用下逆向双点火源聚氨酯泡沫火蔓延及融合行为,开展多组对照实验并从材料传热机理角度分析侧向风速对火蔓延行为中火羽流形态、质量损失和辐射热流场等特征参数的影响。结果表明:风速与上述参数之间存在非线性关系。环境风效应使火焰被拉长且敷贴于预热区表面,增大预热区面积和热反馈;侧向风速的增加对FPU板材质量损失的影响逐渐弱化,且板材的熔滴率与风速呈正相关;无论侧向风是否存在,两侧逆向火焰融合后均达到整个蔓延过程中的峰值温度;风速的存在限制了火焰温度与辐射热通量峰值,也缩短了温度和辐射峰值出现的时间。     

华北地区沙尘天气垂直气溶胶直接辐射强迫

利用CALIOP数据和SBDART（Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer）辐射传输模式研究了2013~2016年华北地区8d沙尘天气气溶胶及其直接辐射强迫垂直分布特征,分析了气溶胶垂直分布和光学特性对直接辐射强迫的影响.结果表明,气溶胶集中分布在地表及以上3km范围,其中纯净沙尘型和污染沙尘型气溶胶位于上层,污染大陆型气溶胶和烟雾位于下层.大气层顶、地表和大气层的日均气溶胶直接辐射强迫分别是-38.41~-88.44,-74.03~-225.86,9.06~137.42W/m².0~8km高度范围气溶胶直接辐射强迫是负值,且随着高度的增加绝对值逐渐减小.气溶胶垂直分布对大气层顶、地表和大气层的直接辐射强迫影响较小,但对直接辐射强迫垂直分布影响较大,由气溶胶廓线差异造成的同一高度层气溶胶直接辐射强迫最大差值能达到31.18W/m².气溶胶光学厚度和单次散射反照率对直接辐射强迫影响明显.消光能力相同时,吸收性气溶胶对短波太阳光的衰减作用大于散射性气溶胶,后向散射比例大的气溶胶大于后向散射比例小的气溶胶.