Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA

This paper presents an approach to modeling land-cover change as a function of land-use change. We argue that, in order to model the link between socio-economic change and changes in forest cover in a region that is experiencing residential and recreational development and agricultural abandonment, land-use and land-cover change need to be represented as separate processes. Forest-cover change is represented here using two transition probabilities that were calculated from Landsat imagery and that, taken together, describe a Markov transition matrix between forest and non-forest over a 10-year period. Using a three-date land-use data set, compiled and interpreted from digitized parcel boundaries, and scanned aerial photography for 136 sites (c. 2500 ha) sampled from the Upper Midwest, USA, we test functional relationships between forest-cover transition probabilities, standardized to represent changes over a decade, and land-use conditions and changes within sample sites. Regression models indicated that about 60% of the variation in the average forest-cover transition probabilities (i.e. from forest to non-forest and vice versa) can be predicted using three variables: amount of agricultural land use in a site; amount of developed land use; and the amount of area increasing in development. In further analysis, time lags were evaluated, showing that agricultural abandonment had a relatively strong time-lag effect but development did not. We demonstrate an approach to using forest-cover transition probabilities to develop spatially-constrained simulations of forest-cover change. Because the simulations are based on transition probabilities that are indexed to a particular time and place, the simulations are improved over previous applications of Markov transition models. This modeling approach can be used to predict forest-cover changes as a result of socio-economic change, by linking to models that predict land-use change on the basis of exogenous human-induced drivers.     

Defining contamination limits with pneumatic hammer soil probes

There have been more than 100,000 confirmed releases of petroleum from underground storage tanks (USTs) in the United States and its territories. The 10,000-gallon spill and cleanup of unleaded gasoline, detailed in this article, that occurred from 1988 to 1990 on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, illustrates the author's argument that electric pneumatic-hammer soil probes are the fastest, most convenient, and least costly way of performing the soil-gas surveys needed to locate spilled petroleum product, evaluate vapor intrusion into basements, and determine the extent of groundwater contamination for remediation purposes. Current state soil-gas requirements are also included.     

Book reviews

Environment Systems and Decisions -     

The role of facet importance as a moderator in job satisfaction processes

Two studies were designed to test hypotheses derived from Locke's (1969, 1976, 1984) model of job satisfaction. Consistent with the model, both studies found that perceived have-want discrepancy scores were powerful predictors of facet job satisfaction. In addition, facet importance tended to moderate this relationship in the manner predicted by Locke. Workers who viewed a job facet as having high importance were more satisfied with a small perceived have-want discrepancy and more dissatisfied with a large discrepancy than workers who viewed the facet as having low importance. Finally, as expected, facet importance failed to moderate the relationship between facet satisfaction and overall job satisfaction. This finding supports Locke's proposition that facet satisfaction scores are ‘implicitly weighted’ by facet importance. Implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

Environmental regulatory compliance on army lands: A case study

A “finding of no significant impact” (FONSI) resulting from an environmental assessment (EA) was reported by the US Army in June 1986 for the construction and utilization of a multipurpose range complex (MPRC) at the Pohakuloa Training Area, Hawaii. There was little public response, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service and state agencies were consulted and had few comments concerning the results of the botanical surveys used in the assessment. Construction of the $24 million project was begun in 1988. Near the end of construction in 1989 a lawsuit was filed to halt construction because an environmental impact statement (EIS) had not been done for the project, and the plaintiff thought that significant damage had occurred to several unusual ecosystems. Judgment was against the plaintiff and construction continued. An appeal was filed with the 9th Circuit Court. As MPRC construction was nearly complete, and on advice of Department of Justice lawyers, the Department of Army agreed to settle out of court. The settlement in part called for: (1) the plaintiff to drop the appeal and allow construction to be completed as scheduled, and (2) the Department of Army to prepare an EIS for the operation of the MPRC. A subsequent botanical survey for the EIS discovered one endangered plant species, four category 1 candidate plant species (taxa with sufficient data to support listing as endangered or threatened), three category 2 candidate plant species (taxa with some evidence of vulnerability but insufficient data to support listing at this time), one category 3a species (presumably extinct taxa), and possibly three undescribed species growing within the MPRC boundary. The MPRC case study is an excellent example of why the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) must be modified to require in-depth and thorough environmental surveys.     

An application of the Krutilla — fisher model to appraising the benefits of green belt preservation versus site development

Financial returns can be deceptive as criteria upon which to make public decisions where outputs from proposed developments are subsidized, such as housing, or protected from imports, such as opencast coal mining. Removing subsidies and the effects of import restrictions suggests that the social benefits from these developments are much less than the financial benefits. Including externalities from the proposed developments on neighbouring householders, and preservation benefits from green belt land, estimated by contingent valuation methods, reveals that the social benefits from opencast coal mining are actually negative.     

STREAM TEMPERATURE ESTIMATION FROM AIR TEMPERATURE1

ABSTRACT: Air temperatures are sometimes used as substitutes for stream temperatures. To examine the errors associated with this procedure, linear relationships between stream temperatures, T, and air temperatures, T_a, recorded for 11 streams in the central U.S. (Mississippi River basin) were analyzed. Weather stations were an average 42 miles (range 0 to 144 miles) from the rivers. The general equations, T_w= 5.0 + 0.75 T_a and T_w= 2.9 + 0.86 T_a with temperatures in °C, were derived for daily and weekly water temperatures, respectively, for the 11 streams studied. The simulations had a standard deviation between measurements and predictions of 2.7°C (daily) and 2.1°C (weekly). Equations derived for each specific stream individually gave lower standard deviations, i.e., 2.1°C and 1.4°C, respectively. Small, shallow streams had smaller deviations than large, deep rivers. The measured water temperatures follow the air temperatures closely with some time lag. time lags ranged from hours to days, increasing with stream depth. Taking into account these time lags improved the daily temperature predictions slightly. Periods of ice cover were excluded from the analysis.     

Success and failure in the labour market

In previous research on unemployment, conflicting evidence has been found for a ‘reverse causation interpretation’, indicating that prolonged unemployment is a consequence of psychological distress instead of the reverse. The present longitudinal study was conducted to test this reverse causation explanation. A second issue addressed in this study was whether getting a job or not depends more strongly on subjective or psychological factors than on objective factors (e.g. a person's biographical background, length of unemployment). Two independent samples were examined: Sample 1 (n = 635) consisted of school-leavers, and sample 2 (n = 467) consisted of subjects who had been unemployed for more than one year. Some support was found for the reverse causation explanation. In addition, more than objective factors, a strong job orientation and a problem focused coping style appeared to be a precursor of success in the labour market. Accordingly, getting a job seems to be primarily a function of one's own efforts.     

An investigation into pay valence and performance in a pay-for-performance field setting

Inconsistent findings have been reported in the few studies investigating the relationship between the perceived value of pay and incentive performance. One hundred and seventy-eight female incentive employees with a nine-week, non-judgmental performance measure responded to a developed valence of pay scale. This measure used items assessing the perceived ability of pay to address employee needs. Three factor-scales were found within these items. Support for the hypothesized positive relationship between pay valence and incentive performance was found, dependent on which of the three scales was used. These findings provide initial insight into the means by which pay, with its ability to address different needs, might provide differential employee motivation and performance levels. This study and future research issues are discussed.