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381.
This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927–2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non‐stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long‐run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. 相似文献
382.
Carlos André Vaz Junior José Luiz de Medeiros Ofélia de Queiroz Fernandes Araújo 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2010,23(3):462-475
This work presents a time series strategy for detection, location and quantification of leaks in large pipeline systems. The technology has two active components, which operate sequentially: the Detector and the Localizer. The Detector continuously screens real-time data, searching for any anomalies such as leaks, which are detected (or not) depending on their size and position. The Detector is based on auto-regressive multi-input/multi-output (MIMO) ARX predictors with one input filter. Subsequent to successful leak detection, the Localizer is launched to diagnose the leak via estimation of its parameters – diameter and location – using recorded data on a Search Time Window that includes information in the neighborhood of the instant of detection. The Localizer is also an ARX predictor, but with two input processors, the first is a filter for dynamic plant inputs and the second filter processes “parameter signals” of active leaks. The Localizer is developed beforehand via model identification with plant data under the action of known, artificially simulated, leaks. It is, therefore, able to recognize an active pattern of leak parameters, by maximizing the adherence of its predictions to data in the Search Time Window. The proposed detection and location methods were successfully tested in simulated leak scenarios for an industrial naphtha pipeline. 相似文献
383.
Jeffrey S. Simonoff Carlos E. Restrepo Rae Zimmerman 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2010,23(2):269-279
A critical aspect of risk management in energy systems is minimizing pipeline incidents that can potentially affect life, property and economic well-being. Risk measures and scenarios are developed in this paper in order to better understand how consequences of pipeline failures are linked to causes and other incident characteristics. An important risk measure for decision-makers in this field is the association between incident cause and cost consequences. Data from the Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS) on natural gas transmission and distribution pipeline incidents are used to analyze the association between various characteristics of the incidents and product loss cost and property damage cost. The data for natural gas transmission incidents are for the period 2002 through May 2009 and include 959 incidents. In the case of natural gas distribution incidents the data include 823 incidents that took place during the period 2004 through May 2009. A two-step approach is used in the statistical analyses to model the consequences and the costs associated with pipeline incidents. In the first step the probability that there is a nonzero consequence associated with an incident is estimated as a function of the characteristics of the incident. In the second step the magnitudes of the consequence measures, given that there is a nonzero outcome, are evaluated as a function of the characteristics of the incidents. It is found that the important characteristics of an incident for risk management can be quite different depending on whether the incident involves a transmission or distribution pipeline, and the type of cost consequence being modeled. The application of this methodology could allow decision-makers in the energy industry to construct scenarios to gain a better understanding of how cost consequence measures vary depending on factors such as incident cause and incident type. 相似文献
384.
385.
Rodrigo A. Estévez Carlos Veloso Gabriel Jerez Stefan Gelcich 《Natural resources forum》2020,44(2):144-160
Fisheries management is increasingly transitioning towards collaborative governance. Collaborative systems depend on stakeholders’ capacity to design and implement legitimate and scientifically robust management plans within collective action arenas. Here we propose that collaborative governance outcomes, in fisheries management, will benefit from using structured participatory decision making frameworks that enhance deliberative thinking among stakeholders. We tested our approach in the artisanal fishery of Chile, an important producer of marine resources. Recently in 2013, Chile made important changes to fisheries policies by creating multi-sectorial management committees to manage de facto open access fishing areas. We applied a structured decision making framework to inform the restructuring of a management plan within a committee. As a result, we identified goals,objectives and indicators, including social, economic, biological and ecological dimensions; we explored tradeoffs, assessing the relative importance of the objectives; finally, we created scenarios and prioritized alternatives, reflecting on the interplay between self-regulation and government control. Members of the management committee were able to rationalize the different steps of the framework and identify ways forward which highlighted the importance of self-regulation in comparison to central authorities’ control. We concluded that structured decision making promotes spaces for rational analysis of alternatives costs and benefits. Promoting deliberative thinking in fisheries management can improve equity, legitimacy and sustainability of collaborative governance. 相似文献
386.
Energy planners in developing countries have traditionally sought to meet their nations' growing electricity demands by adding more generation and transmission capacity. But as the foreign investment situation became critical in the 1980s, private investment and system efficiency improvement programmes began to garner interest. One of the most promising system efficiency improvement options is load management, which uses a variety of techniques to utilize the electricity system's existing capacity more efficiently. However, to date, only three countries have seriously considered implementing large load management programmes: Pakistan, Peru and Costa Rica. This paper describes a 1987-89 load control demonstration programme in Costa Rica, sponsored by the US Agency for International Development (AID), in which participating industries were able to reduce their peak demand by 14%. 相似文献
387.
388.
Soil sorption of most hydrophobic organic compounds (e.g., nonpolar pesticides) is directly related to soil organic matter (SOM) content. Humic substances are the major SOM components, containing carboxylic, phenolic, amine, quinone, and other functional groups, and specific structural configurations. In this paper, sorption interactions between imazaquin (2-[4,5-dydro-4-methyl-4-(1-methylethyl)-5-oxo-1H- imidazol-2-yl]-3-quinoline-carboxylic acid) herbicide (IM) and a humic acid (HA) extracted from a typical Brazilian Oxisol were studied with electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic techniques. A polarographic technique was used to quantify sorption. The IM amount sorbed on the HA was much higher than that on the whole soil within the pH range studied, emphasizing the prominent role played by SOM on IM sorption. Moreover, IM sorption increased as the soil-solution pH decreased. This enhancement in sorption was attributed to the hydrophobic affinity of the herbicide by the HA and to the electrostatic interaction between the protonated quinoline group of IM and the negative sites of the HA. Hydrophobic regions in the HA's interior at low pH (< 5.0) were recently demonstrated by an EPR detectable spin-label molecule. The FTIR and EPR spectroscopy and polarography data indicated weak interaction between IM and the soil and its HA, involving hydrogen bonding, proton transfer, and cation exchange (at low pH), and mainly hydrophobic interactions. However, no strong reaction mechanism, such as charge transfer, was involved. In addition, this research suggested that soil amendment with organic material might increase magnitude of IM sorption, consequently avoiding leaching and carryover problems usually found for mobile and persistent herbicides such as imazaquin. 相似文献
389.
Ferraro Alberto Fabbricino Massimiliano van Hullebusch Eric D. Esposito Giovanni 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2017,24(27):21960-21972
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - A comparison of Cu extraction yields for three different ethylenediamine-N,N′-disuccinic acid (EDDS)-enhanced washing configurations was... 相似文献
390.