False positive fecal coliform in biosolid samples assayed using A-1 medium.

Two most probable number (MPN) methods-lauryl tryptose broth with Escherichia coli broth confirmation and direct A-1 broth incubation (A-1)--were compared for the enumeration of fecal coliform in lime-treated biosolid. Fecal coliform numbers were significantly higher using the A-1 method. Analysis of positive A-1 tubes, however, indicated that a high percentage of these were false positives. Therefore, the use of A-1 broth for 40 CFR Part 503 Pathogen Reduction (CFR, 1993) compliance testing is not recommended.     

Unintended biological invasions: Does risk vary by trading partner?

International trade is the primary conduit for unintentional and damaging species introductions. But biogeographic heterogeneity, and differences in historical trade exposure across trade partners suggest that not all imports are equally risky. We develop an analytical model linking exotic species introductions and discoveries to trade volumes. The model is estimated using a novel historical data set on global trade and species introductions by region. Our estimates support theoretical predictions that trade from different regions poses different risks and that the cumulative number of introductions from a region is a concave function of imports. For each trade region we then calculate the marginal and cumulative invasion risk from additional trade. Simple volume restrictions on imports to reduce NIS introductions are not advisable based on coarse cost–benefit calculations.     

ECONOMIC FORECASTING FOR VIRGINIA'S WATER RESOURCE PROGRAMS1

ABSTRACT: Water resource and water quality management planning depend, to a large degree, on forecasts of industrial activity and population projections. A flexible economic data base is especially important where planning follows varying formats of geographical and industrial detail. Records of employment and payroll are collected in the administration of Unemployment Insurance (U.I.) programs and are available from State Employment Agencies. These statistics have been collected over a long period of record (thirty-five years). Many years of record are available on punched-cards or magnetic tape and may be arrayed and manipulated by computer. This basic approach has been followed in Virginia. Historical U.I. payroll and employment records for the period 1956 through 1970 were procured on magnetic tape. This data was arrayed by major hydrologic area and by regional planning district. Projections of manufacturing activity were then generated by fitting several exponential equations to annual payroll data in two-digit Standard Industrial Classifications. These exponentials were then extrapolated to provide a range of industrial projections. Other parameters of manufacturing activity were then correlated to the payroll data to generate projections of indexes such as employment, value-added, and gross manufacturing output. U.I. payroll data is now being correlated to parameters in non-manufacturing categories. Projections for industries such as trade and services will link extrapolated payroll data with benchmark correlations of payroll and sales receipts.     

The role of schools in helping communities copes with earthquake disasters: the case of the 2010–2011 New Zealand earthquakes

ABSTRACT

This article draws from the author’s four-year study of five school communities hit by the 2010–2011 earthquake sequence in the Canterbury region of New Zealand to highlight the roles that schools played in supporting their communities in the aftermath of the disaster. The article begins by synthesising the relevant literature on disasters, schools in earthquake disasters, and the importance of schools to their communities, pre- and post-disaster. The following themes from the data are discussed: (a) the role of schools in their communities prior to the earthquakes; (b) the role of schools in immediate rescue and response; (c) the role of schools in short-term relief; and (d) the role of schools in long-term recovery. The author then argues that as more evidence shows that schools play such crucial roles in post-disaster response and recovery, we need to better prepare and support them to undertake these functions. Further, we need to recognise the wider roles schools play supporting local communities to build and sustain resilience as part of on-going community cohesion and connectedness, so that society is better prepared when major disasters occur.     

Maternal characteristics and the production and recruitment of sons in the eastern kingbird (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Tyrannus tyrannus</Emphasis>)

Sex allocation theory predicts that if variance in reproductive success differs between the sexes, females who are able to produce high-quality young should bias offspring sex ratio towards the sex with the higher potential reproductive success. We tested the hypothesis that high-quality (i.e., heavy) female eastern kingbirds (Tyrannus tyrannus) that bred early in the breeding season would produce male-biased clutches. A significant opportunity for sexual selection also exists in this socially monogamous but cryptically polygamous species, and we predicted that successful extra-pair (EP) sires would be associated with an excess of male offspring. Although population brood sex ratio did not differ from parity, it increased significantly with female body mass and declined with female breeding date, but was independent of the morphology and display (song) behavior (correlates of reproductive success) of social males and EP sires. Male offspring were significantly heavier than female offspring at fledging. Moreover, the probability that male offspring were resighted in subsequent years declined with breeding date, and was greater in replacement clutches, but lower when clutch size was large. Probability of resighting female offspring varied annually, but was independent of all other variables. Given that variance in reproductive success of male kingbirds is much greater than that of females, and that male offspring are more expensive to produce and have a higher probability of recruitment if fledged early in the season, our results support predictions of sex allocation theory: high-quality (heavy) females breeding when conditions were optimal for male recruitment produced an excess of sons.     

Uncertain penalties and compliance: experimental evidence

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - We present the results of a series of economic laboratory experiments designed to study the compliance behavior of polluting firms when penalties are...     

Binary logistic regression—Instrument for assessing museum indoor air impact on exhibits

This paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The prediction of the impact on the exhibits during certain pollution scenarios (environmental impact) was calculated by a mathematical model based on the binary logistic regression; it allows the identification of those environmental parameters from a multitude of possible parameters with a significant impact on exhibitions and ranks them according to their severity effect. Air quality (NO₂, SO₂, O₃ and PM_2.5) and microclimate parameters (temperature, humidity) monitoring data from a case study conducted within exhibition and storage spaces of the Romanian National Aviation Museum Bucharest have been used for developing and validating the binary logistic regression method and the mathematical model. The logistic regression analysis was used on 794 data combinations (715 to develop of the model and 79 to validate it) by a Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS 20.0). The results from the binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that from six parameters taken into consideration, four of them present a significant effect upon exhibits in the following order: O₃>PM_2.5>NO₂>humidity followed at a significant distance by the effects of SO₂ and temperature. The mathematical model, developed in this study, correctly predicted 95.1 % of the cumulated effect of the environmental parameters upon the exhibits. Moreover, this model could also be used in the decisional process regarding the preventive preservation measures that should be implemented within the exhibition space.

Implications: The paper presents a new way to assess the environmental impact on historical artifacts using binary logistic regression. The mathematical model developed on the environmental parameters analyzed by the binary logistic regression method could be useful in a decision-making process establishing the best measures for pollution reduction and preventive preservation of exhibits.     

An Epidemiological Study of Exposure to Coal Tar Pitch Volatiles Among Coke Oven Workers

Recent studies of mortality among coke plant workers indicate that there is an excess of respiratory cancer among men employed at the coke ovens and that the mortality is related to work areas and length of exposure to coal tar effluents, the body of information presented in this paper is directed to categorization of coke oven jobs into different work areas in terms of exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles developing an index of cumulative exposure to investigate the dose-response relationship between exposure and mortality. The exposure data have been taken from a study conducted by the Pennsylvania Department of Health, State Division of Occupational Health, and mortality data are based on a long-term study of steelworkers, conducted by the Department of Biostatistics, University of Pittsburgh. A summary index calculated for each worker combining the level of exposure and length of time exposed indicates that, as expected, both these factors are related to the development of cancer, particularly cancers of the respiratory system.

Conclusions of note are: Measured levels of coal tar pitch volatiles are 2-3 times higher for men who work at the top of coke ovens as compared to men employed at the side of the ovens. Even though the specific carcinogenic element or elements in the coke oven environment are not known at the present time, in-. creasing levels of exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles are related to art increased risk of dying from malignant neoplasms. Further coal tar pitch volatile measurements need to be made and analyses designed which will specify the dose-response relationship more precisely. This will provide information necessary to evaluate the recommended Threshold Limit Value.     

What Is the Potential Measurement Error in Occupational Exposure Studies?

ABSTRACT

This paper demonstrates statistical methods that estimate measurement error from available industrial hygiene data. Errors in measuring a continuous exposure variable may arise when all individuals in a work area are assigned the same exposure. An example is when the mean of exposure measurements obtained on a sample of individuals is assigned to all workers with similar jobs. This may lead to inaccurate point and interval estimates in exposure-response modeling. A method of simulating the distribution of true (i.e., unobserved) individual exposures is described in order to estimate the mean and variance of measurement error. The minimum variance unbiased estimator approximates the mean of lognormally distributed exposure measurements. The distribution of true individual exposures is approximated by the distribution of simulated estimates of mean exposure. The methodology is illustrated by exposure data from work areas manufacturing refractory ceramic fiber (RCF) and RCF products. Results show that exposure is slightly underestimated in work areas with between 25 and 113 exposure measurements; measurement error variance averages about 1.3% of the total variance.