Interactions of risk analysis and contingency planning in risk management

Risk management entails knowledge of the risk and how best to reduce it; its objective is to minimize losses arising from existing or potential risk. With effective contingency planning, risk analysis and its corollary, consequence analysis, can contribute synergistically to improved risk management. Until recently, risk analysis and contingency or emergency response planning were considered distinct disciplines with little interactive potential. Fortunately, industry now recognizes that linking the two can help ensure public safety as well as preserve the financial integrity of plant owners. Both areas are receiving increased and well-deserved attention; several incidents in recent years have demonstrated that losses could have been greatly reduced if better precautions and procedures had been in place as a result of risk analysis and contingency planning.     

The Long Beach/Fort Lauderdale relative risk study

Problem

The role of alcohol as a major factor in traffic crash causation has been firmly established. However, controversy remains as to the precise shape of the relative risk function and the BAC at which crash risk begins to increase.

Methods

This study used a case-control design in two locations: Long Beach, California, and Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Data were collected on 2,871 crashes of all severities and a matched control group of drivers selected from the same time, location, and direction of travel as the crash drivers. Of the 14,985 sample drivers, 81.3% of the crash drivers and 97.9% of the controls provided a valid BAC specimen.

Results

When adjusted for covariates and nonparticipation bias, increases in relative risk were observed at BACs of .04-.05, and the elevations in risk became very pronounced when BACs exceeded .10.

Discussion

The results provide strong support for .08 per se laws and for state policies that increase sanctions for BACs in excess of .15.

Impact on Industry

This study provides further precision on the deleterious effects of alcohol on driving and, by implication, on other complex tasks.     

Impacts of weathered tire debris on the development of Rana sylvatica larvae

Highway runoff has the potential to negatively impact receiving systems including stormwater retention ponds where highway particulate matter can accumulate following runoff events. Tire wear particles, which contain about 1% Zn by mass, make up approximately one-third of the vehicle derived particulates in highway runoff and therefore may serve as a stressor to organisms utilizing retention ponds as habitat. In this study, we focused on the potential contribution of tire debris to Zn accumulation by Rana sylvatica larvae and possible lethal or sublethal impacts resulting from exposure to weathered tire debris during development. Eggs and larvae were exposed to aged sediments (containing either ZnCl2 or tire particulate matter, both providing nominal concentrations of 1000 mg Zn kg(-1)) through metamorphosis. Water column Zn was elevated in both the ZnCl2 and tire treatments relative to the control treatment, indicating that aging allowed Zn leaching from tire debris to occur. Tissue Zn was also elevated for the ZnCl2 and tire treatments indicating that Zn in the treatments was available for uptake by the amphibians. Exposure to both ZnCl2 and tire treatments increased the time for larvae to complete metamorphosis in comparison with controls. We also observed that the longer the organisms took to complete metamorphosis, the smaller their mass at metamorphosis. Our results indicate that Zn leached from aged tire debris is bioavailable to developing R. sylvatica larvae and that exposure to tire debris amended sediments can result in measurable physiological outcomes to wood frogs that may influence population dynamics.     

Generating sustainable towns from Chinese villages: a system modeling approach

The great majority of China's developing towns will be extensions of already existing villages. With the prospect of hundreds of millions of Chinese farmers projected to leave their villages to become industrial workers in new and expanded towns within the next few years, new challenges will be faced. As expansion and modernization progress, this development moves from the traditional village model that operates not far from resource sustainability to increasingly unsustainable patterns of commerce, urban development, and modern life. With such an unprecedented mass migration and transformation, how can Chinese culture survive? What is to become of the existing million plus agricultural villages? How can these massively unsustainable new industrial towns survive? In the European Commission sponsored research program SUCCESS, researchers worked from the scale of the Chinese village to find viable answers to these questions.     

Body mass index and serum chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin and dibenzofuran levels

Several studies have found that current levels of 2,3,7,8 tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin in serum lipids are related to age with older persons generally having higher levels. To account for this age pattern, reference ranges based on national samples have been established in order to allow determination of background levels for regional studies. In several studies, body mass index (BMI), has also been associated with current 2,3,7,8 tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin levels with increasing body mass index related to increasing levels. We measured lipid-adjusted serum levels for all 2,3,7,8-substituted dioxins and furans in 62 chemical manufacturing workers with chlorophenol exposures and 36 workers without chlorophenol exposures employed at the same location. We then assessed the impact of age and BMI on the serum levels of all these compounds in the presence of other potential confounders. We found that both factors are important independent determinants of serum levels of 2,3,7,8-substituted dioxins and furans. Specifically, age and BMI are both important factors for assessing background levels of 2,3,7,8 tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin, 1,2,3,7,8 pentachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin and the calculated total toxic equivalency. BMI, but not age, is important for assessing background levels of higher chlorinated dioxins and some hexachlorofurans. We conclude that age and BMI are both important considerations when comparing a potentially exposed group to a referent group, or to national norms. Further, age and BMI may also be important in epidemiology studies where back-extrapolation from current dioxin levels is used to assess historical chlorophenol exposure.     

Persistence and fate of 17beta-estradiol and testosterone in agricultural soils

Steroidal hormones are constantly released into the environment by man-made and natural sources. The goal of this study was to examine the persistence and fate of 17beta-estradiol and testosterone, the two primary natural sex hormones. Incubation experiments were conducted under aerobic and anaerobic conditions using [4-(14)C]-radiolabeled 17beta-estradiol and testosterone. The results indicated that 6% of 17beta-estradiol and 63% of testosterone could be mineralized to (14)CO(2) in native soils under aerobic conditions. In native soils under anaerobic conditions, 2% of testosterone and no 17beta-estradiol was methanogenized to (14)CH(4). Essentially, no mineralization of either testosterone or 17beta-estradiol to (14)CO(2) occurred in autoclaved soils under aerobic or anaerobic condition. Results also indicated that 17beta-estradiol could be transformed to an unidentified polar compound through abiotic chemical processes; however, 17beta-estradiol was only oxidized to estrone via biological processes. The TLC results also indicated that testosterone was degraded, not by physical-chemical processes but by biological processes. Results also indicated that the assumed risks of estrogenic hormones in the environment might be over-estimated due to the soil's humic substances, which can immobilize majority of estrogenic hormones, and thereby reduce their bioavailability and toxicity.     

Adsorption of domoic acid to marine sediments and clays

Conditional solid-water distribution coefficients (K(d)) for the adsorption of domoic acid (DA) to a series of complex sediments and clays were determined in artificial seawater. K(d) ranged from 5.11 L g(-1) to 0.97 L g(-1), with a corresponding ranking of: kaolinite > Gulf of Mexico sediment > Santa Barbara Basin sediment > Bread and Butter Creek sediment > poorly crystallized kaolin > Ca-montmorillonite > Na-montmorillonite > well crystallized kaolin > diatomaceous earth. Adsorption correlated with the anion exchange capacity of the clays tested (R(2) = 0.98), but not the more structurally complex sediments. The effect of added transition metals (Fe(iii), Cu(ii), Al(iii)) and terrestrially derived dissolved organic matter (Suwannee River DOM, SRDOM) on DA adsorption to Na-montmorillonite, well crystallized kaolin, and Gulf of Mexico sediment, was also tested. The addition of transition metals led to increased adsorption to all surfaces by a factor of 2-7, presumably by enabling the adsorption of DA-metal complexes. SRDOM enhanced DA adsorption by a factor of approximately 2.5. The release of adsorbed DA from sediments was also examined. Under our conditions, adsorbed DA equilibrated with the overlying aqueous phase within minutes with approximately 50% release.     

Evaluation of Three Watershed‐Scale Pesticide Environmental Transport and Fate Models1

Abstract: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) has completed an evaluation of three watershed‐scale simulation models for potential use in Food Quality Protection Act pesticide drinking water exposure assessments. The evaluation may also guide OPP in identifying computer simulation tools that can be used in performing aquatic ecological exposure assessments. Models selected for evaluation were the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), the Nonpoint Source Model (NPSM), a modified version of the Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF), and the Pesticide Root Zone Model‐Riverine Water Quality (PRZM‐RIVWQ) model. Simulated concentrations of the pesticides atrazine, metolachlor, and trifluralin in surface water were compared with field data monitored in the Sugar Creek watershed of Indiana’s White River basin by the National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. The evaluation not only provided USEPA with experience in using watershed models for estimating pesticide concentration in flowing water but also led to the development of improved statistical techniques for assessing model accuracy. Further, it demonstrated the difficulty of representing spatially and temporally variable soil, weather, and pesticide applications with relatively infrequent, spatially fixed, point estimates. It also demonstrated the value of using monitoring and modeling as mutually supporting tools and pointed to the need to design monitoring programs that support modeling.     

An independent review and prioritization of past radionuclide and chemical releases from the Los Alamos National Laboratory--implications for future dose reconstruction studies

From 1999 through 2010, a team of scientists and engineers systematically reviewed approximately eight million classified and unclassified documents at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) that describe historical off-site releases of radionuclides and chemicals in order to determine the extent to which a full-scale dose reconstruction for releases is warranted and/or feasible. As a part of this effort, a relative ranking of historical airborne and waterborne radionuclide releases from LANL was established using priority index (PI) values that were calculated from estimated annual quantities released and the maximum allowable effluent concentrations according to The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). Chemical releases were ranked based on annual usage estimates and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) toxicity values. PI results for airborne radionuclides indicate that early plutonium operations were of most concern between 1948 and 1961, in 1967, and again from 1970 through 1973. Airborne releases of uranium were found to be of most interest for 1968, from 1974 through 1978, and again in 1996. Mixed fission products yielded the highest PI value for 1969. Mixed activation product releases yielded the highest PI values from 1979 to 1995. For waterborne releases, results indicate that plutonium is of most concern for all years evaluated with the exception of 1956 when (90)Sr yielded the highest PI value. The prioritization of chemical releases indicate that four of the top five ranked chemicals were organic solvents that were commonly used in chemical processing and for cleaning. Trichloroethylene ranked highest, indicating highest relative potential for health effects, for both cancer and non-cancer effects. Documents also indicate that beryllium was used in significant quantities, which could have lead to residential exposures exceeding established environmental and occupational exposure limits, and warrants further consideration. In part because of the close proximity of residents to LANL, further study of historical LANL releases and the potential impact to public health is recommended for those materials with the largest priority index values; namely, plutonium, uranium, and selected chemicals.