A Complex Systems Model Approach to Quantified Mineral Resource Appraisal

For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized.The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,–1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios. Published on line     

GLYPHOSATE, OTHER HERBICIDES, AND TRANSFORMATION PRODUCTS IN MIDWESTERN STREAMS, 20021

ABSTRACT: The use of glyphosate has increased rapidly, and there is limited understanding of its environmental fate. The objective of this study was to document the occurrence of glyphosate and the transformation product aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA) in Midwestern streams and to compare their occurrence with that of more commonly measured herbicides such as acetochlor, atrazine, and metolachlor. Water samples were collected at sites on 51 streams in nine Midwestern states in 2002 during three runoff events: after the application of pre-emergence herbicides, after the application of post-emergence herbicides, and during harvest season. All samples were analyzed for glyphosate and 20 other herbicides using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry or high performance liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry. The frequency of glyphosate and AMPA detection, range of concentrations in runoff samples, and ratios of AMPA to glyphosate concentrations did not vary throughout the growing season as substantially as for other herbicides like atrazine, probably because of different seasonal use patterns. Glyphosate was detected at or above 0.1 μg/1 in 35 percent of pre-emergence, 40 percent of post-emergence, and 31 percent of harvest season samples, with a maximum concentration of 8.7 μg/1. AMPA was detected at or above 0.1 μg/1 in 53 percent of pre-emergence, 83 percent of post-emergence, and 73 percent of harvest season samples, with a maximum concentration of 3.6 μg/1. Glyphosate was not detected at a concentration at or above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's maximum contamination level (MCL) of 700 μg/1 in any sample. Atrazine was detected at or above 0.1 μg/1 in 94 percent of pre-emergence, 96 percent of post-emergence, and 57 percent of harvest season samples, with a maximum concentration of 55 μg/1. Atrazine was detected at or above its MCL (3 μg/1) in 57 percent of pre-emergence and 33 percent of post-emergence samples.     

Loblolly pine response to wet-weather harvesting on wet flats after 5 years

The timing of forestry operations relative to weather conditions is a consideration in applying Forestry Best Management Practices (BMPs). Harvesting during different seasons can result in degrees of soil disturbance, the distribution of logging debris, and potentially future stand productivity. The purpose of this study is to examine the response of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) stands after wet- and dry-weather harvesting combined with three site preparation treatments. A 20 × 20 meter grid was established in fifteen 20-year-old, 3.3-ha loblolly pine plantations in South Carolina. A census of soil physical disturbance and slash distribution was made after harvesting. Growth was measured on 1/125th-ha plots at ages two and five. Dry-weather harvested (DWH) sites were 91% undisturbed, and 9% compressed. Wet-weather harvested (WWH) sites were 41% undisturbed, and 59% disturbed. WWH sites averaged 9% bare soil, while DWH sites averaged 16% with 1 kg m^-2 less logging residue; primarily in the form of heavy and light slash. At age five, the green-weight biomass of flat-planted DWH and WWH sites were 13.3 and 12.6 kg tree^-1 respectively, and on the bedded DWH and WWH sites were 18.6 and 22.8 kg tree^-1. Wet weather harvesting did not seem to adversely affect stand growth, and may have improved it. Due to a prolonged drought, bedding had a larger effect on WWH sites than DWH harvested sites. The effects of droughty conditions may be influencing treatment response on these highly productive sites; however, the long-term effects of harvesting on stand growth remain to be seen.     

The Missing Flux in a 35S Budget for the Soils of a Small Polluted Catchment

A combination of cosmogenic and artificial ³⁵S was used to assess the movement of sulfur in a steep Central European catchment affected by spruce die-back. The Jeze?í catchment, Kru?né Hory Mts. (Czech Republic) is characterized by a large disproportion between atmospheric S input and S output via stream discharge, with S output currently exceeding S input three times. A relatively high natural concentration of cosmogenic ³⁵S (42 mBq L^-1) was found in atmospheric deposition into the catchment in winter and spring of 2000. In contrast, stream discharge contained only 2 mBq L^-1. Consequently, more than 95% of the deposited S is cycled or retained within the catchment for more than several months, while older S is exported via surface water. In spring, when the soil temperature is above 0 °C, practically no S from instantaneous rainfall is exported, despite the steepness of the slopes and the relatively short mean residence time of water in the catchment (6.5 months). Sulfur cycling in the soil includes not just adsorption of inorganic sulfate and biological uptake, but also volatilization of S compounds back into the atmosphere. Laboratory incubations of an Orthic Podzol from Jeze?í spiked with 720 kBq of artificial ³⁵S showed a 20% loss of the spike within 18 weeks under summer conditions. Under winter conditions, the ³⁵S loss was insignificant (<5%). This missing S flux was interpreted as volatilized hydrogen sulfide resulting from intermittent dissimilatory bacterial sulfate reduction. The missing S flux is comparable to the estimated uncertainty in many catchment S mass balances (±10%), or even larger, and should be considered in constructing these mass balances. In severely polluted forest catchments, such as Jeze?í, sulfur loss to volatilization may exceed 13 kg ha^-1 a^-1, which is more than the current total atmospheric S input in large parts of North America and Europe.     

Molecular-level investigation of monoaromatic compound sorption to suspended soil particles by deuterium nuclear magnetic resonance

Molecular-level sorption behavior of monoaromatic compounds in suspensions of water-dispersable clay components was studied by measuring 2H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spin-spin relaxation times (T2). In general, decreased T2 values indicate stronger solute-sorbent interactions and increased sorption of the solute. A decreasing trend for T2 values in the order benzene > fluorobenzene > toluene (-C6D5 moiety) was observed, which was probably caused by the hydrophobic effect. The T2 values for benzene and the -C6D5 moiety of toluene increased with increasing pH, whereas the trend with pH was much weaker and less consistent for fluorobenzene and the methyl group of toluene. Conversely, no clear relationship was found between T2 values and pH for dichloromethane. These contrasting results cannot be explained by the pH-dependent self-assembly and hydrophobicity of humics. Instead, directed specific forces, including hydrogen bonding, cation-pi interactions, and aromatic-aromatic interactions, are proposed between the benzene ring of monoaromatic solutes and soil organic matter (SOM). Substituents of benzene affect these interactions by varying the pi electron density. When the soil fraction was treated with NaOH to remove humic and fulvic acids, T2 values for the different monoaromatic solutes were surprisingly lower compared with those for the untreated soil fraction. This result is probably caused by the increased ratio of solutes adsorbed to "hard" or "glassy" SOM components, which leads to less mobile sorbed solute molecules, after removing NaOH-extractable humics that contain more "soft" or "rubbery" SOM components.     

Herbicides in ground water beneath Nebraska's Management Systems Evaluation Area

Profiles of ground water pesticide concentrations beneath the Nebraska Management Systems Evaluation Area (MSEA) describe the effect of 20 yr of pesticide usage on ground water in the central Platte Valley of Nebraska. During the 6-yr (1991-1996) study, 14 pesticides and their transformation products were detected in 7848 ground water samples from the unconfined water table aquifer. Triazine and acetamide herbicides applied on the site and their transformation products had the highest frequencies of detection. Atrazine [6-chloro-N-ethyl-N'-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4,-diamine] concentrations decreased with depth and ground water age determined with 3H/3He dating techniques. Assuming equivalent atrazine input during the past 20 yr, the measured average changes in concentration with depth (age) suggest an estimated half-life of >10 yr. Hydrolysis of atrazine and deethylatrazine (DEA; 2-chloro-4-amino-6-isopropylamino-s-triazine) to hydroxyatrazine [6-hydroxy-N-ethyl-N'-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine] appeared to be the major degradation route. Aqueous hydroxyatrazine concentrations are governed by sorption on the saturated sediments. Atrazine was detected in the confined Ogallala aquifer in ultra-trace concentrations (0.003 microg L(-1)); however, the possibility of introduction during reverse circulation drilling of these deep wells cannot be eliminated. In fall 1997 sampling, metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl) acetamide] was detected in 57% of the 230 samples. Metolachlor oxanilic acid [(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl) amino]oxo-acetic acid] was detected in most samples. In ground water profiles, concentrations of metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid [2-[(ethyl-6-methylphenyl)(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)amino]-2-oxo-ethanesulfonic acid] exceeded those of deethylatrazine. Alachlor [2-chloro-N-(2,6-diethylphenyl)-N-(methoxymethyl)acetamide] was detected in <1% of the samples; however, alachlor ethane sulfonic acid [2-[(2,6-diethylphenyl)(methoxymethyl)amino]-2-oxoethanesulfonic acid] was present in most samples (63%) and was an indicator of past alachlor use.     

Numerical modeling of diazinon transport through inter-row vegetative filter strips

A numerical simulation model of pesticide runoff through vegetative filer strips (PRVFS) was developed as a tool for investigating the effects of pesticide transport mechanisms on VFS design in dormant-sprayed orchard. The PRVFS model was developed applying existing theories such as kinematic wave theory and mixing zone theory for pesticide transport in the bare soil area. For VFS area, the model performs flow routing by simple mass accounting in sequential segments and the pesticide mass balance by considering pesticide washoff and adsorption processes on the leaf, vegetative litter, root zone and soil. Model sensitivity analysis indicated that pesticide transfer from surface soil to overland flow and pesticide washoff from the VFS were important mechanisms affecting diazinon transport. The VFS cover ratio and rainfall intensity can be important design parameters for controlling diazinon runoff using inter-row VFS in orchard. The PRVFS model was validated using micro-ecosystem simulation of diazinon transport for 0, 50 and 100% VFS cover conditions. The PRVFS model is shown to be a beneficial tool for evaluating and analyzing possible best management practices for controlling offsite runoff of dormant-sprayed diazinon in orchards during the rainy season.     

Photochemical smog effects in mixed conifer forests along a natural gradient of ozone and nitrogen deposition in the San Bernardino Mountains

Toxic effects of photochemical smog on ponderosa and Jeffrey pines in the San Bernardino Mountains were discovered in the 1950s. It was revealed that ozone is the main cause of foliar injury manifested as chlorotic mottle and premature needle senescence. Various morphological, physiological and biochemical alterations in the affected plants have been reported over a period of about 40 years of multidisciplinary research. Recently, the focus of research has shifted from studying the effects of ozone to multiple pollutant effects. Recent studies have indicated that the combination of ozone and nitrogen may alter biomass allocation in pines towards that of deciduous trees, accelerate litter accumulation, and increase carbon sequestration rates in heavily polluted forests. Further study of the effects of multiple pollutants, and their long-term consequences on the mixed conifer ecosystem, cannot be adequately done using the original San Bernardino Mountains Air Pollution Gradient network. To correct deficiencies in the design, the new site network is being configured for long-term studies on multiple air pollutant concentrations and deposition, physiological and biochemical changes in trees, growth and composition of over-story species, biogeochemical cycling including carbon cycling and sequestration, water quality, and biodiversity of forest ecosystems. Eleven sites have been re-established. A comparison of 1974 stand composition with data from 2000 stand composition indicate that significant changes in species composition have occurred at some sites with less change at other sites. Moist, high-pollution sites have experienced the greatest amount of forest change, while dryer low-pollution sites have experienced the least amount of stand change. In general, ponderosa pine had the lowest basal area increases and the highest mortality across the San Bernardino Mountains.     

99Tc in seawater in the West Spitsbergen Current and adjacent areas

99Tc levels were measured in seawater samples collected between 2000 and 2002 in the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) and along the western coast of Svalbard or Spitzbergen and compared with available oceanographic 3-D modelling results for the late 1990s. Additional data from related regions are also presented in order to support the data interpretation. The seawater in the Arctic fjord Kongsfjorden on the western coast of Svalbard is influenced by the WSC, as shown by the 99Tc levels in surface water. By means of the WSC, 99Tc reaches the Eastern Fram Strait, where one branch of the WSC turns west into the East Greenland Current (EGC), and another branch continues northwards into the Arctic Ocean. Surface seawater collected in the central part of the WSC during a cruise on board the R/V "Polarstern" in the summer of 2000, showed higher levels of (99)Tc than samples measured in Kongsfjorden in the spring of 2000. However, all levels measured in surface water are of the same order of magnitude. Data from sampling of deeper water in the WSC and EGC provide information pertaining to the lateral distribution of 99Tc. In all vertical profiling surveys (conducted in spring and summer), the highest levels of 99Tc were found in surface water. Comparison with oceanographic 3-D modelling indicates both significant seasonal variations in the lateral stratification of the WSC and variations with depth over shorter vertical distances. This information can be applied in sampling strategies, environmental monitoring, long-range transport of pollutants and physical oceanography.