In situ measures of foraging success and prey encounter reveal marine habitat-dependent search strategies

Predators are thought to reduce travel speed and increase turning rate in areas where resources are relatively more abundant, a behavior termed "area-restricted search." However, evidence for this is rare, and few empirical data exist for large predators. Animals exhibiting foraging site fidelity could also be spatially aware of suitable feeding areas based on prior experience; changes in movement patterns might therefore arise from the anticipation of higher prey density. We tested the hypothesis that regions of area-restricted search were associated with a higher number of daily speed spikes (a proxy for potential prey encounter rate) and foraging success in southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), a species exhibiting both area-restricted searches and high interannual foraging site fidelity. We used onshore morphological measurements and diving data from archival tags deployed during winter foraging trips. Foraging success was inferred from in situ changes in relative lipid content derived from measured changes in buoyancy, and first-passage time analysis was used to identify area-restricted search behavior. Seals exhibited relatively direct southerly movement on average, with intensive search behavior predominantly located at the distal end of tracks. The probability of being in search mode was positively related to changes in relative lipid content; thus, intensively searched areas were associated with the highest foraging success. However, there was high foraging success during the outward transit even though seals moved through quickly without slowing down and increasing turning rate to exploit these areas. In addition, the probability of being in search mode was negatively related to the number of daily speed spikes. These results suggest that movement patterns represent a response to prior expectation of the location of predictable and profitable resources. Shelf habitat was 4-9 times more profitable than the other habitats, emphasizing the importance of the East Antarctic shelf for this and other predators in the region. We have provided rare empirical data with which to investigate the relationship between predator foraging strategy and prey encounter/ foraging success, underlining the importance of inferring the timing and spatial arrangement of successful food acquisition for interpreting foraging strategies correctly.     

Genetic structure of the southeastern United States loggerhead turtle nesting aggregation: evidence of additional structure within the peninsular Florida recovery unit

The southeastern United States supports one of two large loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting aggregations worldwide and is therefore critical to global conservation and recovery efforts for the species. Previous studies have established the presence of four demographically distinct nesting populations (management units) corresponding to beaches from (1) North Carolina through northeastern Florida, (2) peninsular Florida, (3) the Dry Tortugas, and (4) northwest Florida. Temporal and geographic genetic structure of the nesting aggregation was examined utilizing partial mitochondrial control region haplotype frequencies from 834 samples collected over the 2002 through 2008 nesting seasons from 19 beaches as well as previously published haplotype data. Most rookeries did not exhibit interannual genetic variation. However, the interannual variation detected did significantly impact the interpretation of spatial genetic structure in northeastern Florida. Based on pairwise F _ST comparisons, exact tests of population differentiation, and analysis of molecular variance, the present study upholds the distinctiveness of the four currently recognized management units and further supports recognition of discrete central eastern, southern (southeastern and southwestern), and central western Florida management units. Further subdivision may be warranted, but more intensive genetic sampling is required. In addition, tools such as telemetry and mark-recapture are needed to complement genetic data and overcome limitations of genetic markers in resolving loggerhead turtle rookery connectivity in the southeastern USA.     

Mitochondrial and microsatellite assessment of population structure of South American sea lion (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Otaria flavescens</Emphasis>) in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean

Several major breeding areas have been defined for the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) along the Atlantic Ocean including the Uruguayan and Patagonian coasts. Together with a documented and severe reduction in population sizes caused by commercial hunting in the last century, these areas show opposite population trends. While Patagonian populations are recovering since hunting ceased, Uruguayan populations are declining. In this context, population genetic structure and genetic diversity were studied for the first time with both nuclear (microsatellites) and mitochondrial (control region) markers together. Alternative scenarios were found for both markers. While mitochondrial marker showed geographically structured populations, the nuclear loci showed a lack of geographical structure. These opposite patterns in genetic structure could be explained by female phylopatry and high male dispersion. The reduction in population size caused by commercial hunting did not leave a detectable footprint of bottleneck at the genetic level.     

Saharan dust episodes and pregnancy

Desert dust is one of the natural contributors to atmospheric particulate matter worldwide. Although particulate pollution has been shown to adversely affect pregnancy, the available evidence on the impact of dust episodes on pregnancy is very scarce. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of Saharan dust episodes on pregnancy complications (preeclampsia and bacteriuria) and outcomes (birth weight and gestational age at delivery). This study was based on a cohort of births (N = 3565) that occurred in a major university hospital in Barcelona during 2003-2005. To determine Saharan dust episodes, we developed a two-stage approach based on meteorological evidence of the presence of Saharan dust cloud over the region and unusually high levels of particulate levels on the ground while taking account of traffic sources. The associations between the number of Saharan dust episodes during whole pregnancy as well as each pregnancy trimester and pregnancy complications and outcomes were analysed. There were 152 days (out of 838 days) with Saharan dust cloud over the region from which 45 days were determined as episodic days. We did not observe any statistically significant harmful effect of Saharan dust episodes on our included pregnancy complications and outcomes. However, we observed a small but statistically significant increase in gestational age at delivery in association with the number of episodic days during the third trimester and whole pregnancy (0.8 and 0.5 days respectively). Our findings were not suggestive for any adverse effect of Saharan dust episodes on our included pregnancy complications and outcomes.     

Ambient concentrations of airborne endotoxin in two cities in the interior of British Columbia, Canada

This study measured and analyzed the outdoor airborne endotoxin concentration, on particulate matter (PM2·? and PM1?), for two cities in the interior of British Columbia, Canada. Samples were collected throughout one seasonal cycle, from October 2005 to September 2006. It was found that concentrations were generally highest in the summer and fall, and lowest in the winter and spring. Temperature and relative humidity were found to be most influential, with highest endotoxin concentrations recorded during warm periods and moderate relative humidity (35 to 75 percent). No clear association of concentration with wind direction was observed. Results were comparable between the two cities considered in this study, and concentrations were similar to or slightly higher than those reported by other studies considering urban locations. Endotoxin concentration was also found to be positively associated with agricultural dust sources identified by a source apportionment study conducted at one of the sampling locations.     

Understanding the global economic crisis: A biophysical perspective

The recent economic meltdown worldwide has reinforced our understanding of the effects of decoupling economic growth, monetary policy, and resources. Concern for peak oil and suggestions that it may have contributed to the global economic woes as well as over concern for the banking fraud may be adding confusion over the underlying causes and sending a misleading message to the public and ultimately to policy makers. Viewing the economy as simply a circulation of money that can be manipulated to increase spending and therefore consume our way out of the current economic situation, is courting disaster by deluding the public that the solution lies in simple adjustments to the current monetary system. Similarly, emphasizing that energy is the problem and that the solution can be found with another energy source is probably counterproductive in the short run and may be disastrous in the long run. The recent nuclear accident in Japan seriously calls into question increased dependence on nuclear energy and renewable energy sources, in the majority, have low net yields and are unevenly distributed worldwide.In this paper we frame the economic system as a subsystem of the larger more encompassing geobiosphere and suggest that within this context, neoclassical economics is unlikely to provide sufficient explanation of the recent economic melt-down. From a biophysical perspective, increasing the amount or speed of money circulation as well as extracting more energy from whatever source is available will only compound the problems and relying on growth as the solution to what ails the global economy is not a desirable nor a tenable solution.     

Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and regression tree (CRT), habitat suitability index (HSI), forest structure database (FS), and habitat association database (HA). We focused our comparison on models for five priority forest-breeding species in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region: Acadian Flycatcher, Cerulean Warbler, Prairie Warbler, Red-headed Woodpecker, and Worm-eating Warbler. Lacking complete knowledge on the distribution and abundance of each species with which we could illuminate differences between approaches and provide strong grounds for recommending one approach over another, we used two approaches to compare models: rank correlations among model outputs and comparison of spatial correspondence. In general, rank correlations were significantly positive among models for each species, indicating general agreement among the models. Worm-eating Warblers had the highest pairwise correlations, all of which were significant (P < 0.05). Red-headed Woodpeckers had the lowest agreement among models, suggesting greater uncertainty in the relative conservation value of areas within the region. We assessed model uncertainty by mapping the spatial congruence in priorities (i.e., top ranks) resulting from each model for each species and calculating the coefficient of variation across model ranks for each location. This allowed identification of areas more likely to be good targets of conservation effort for a species, those areas that were least likely, and those in between where uncertainty is higher and thus conservation action incorporates more risk. Based on our results, models developed independently for the same purpose (conservation planning for a particular species in a particular geography) yield different answers and thus different conservation strategies. We assert that using only one habitat model (even if validated) as the foundation of a conservation plan is risky. Using multiple models (i.e., ensemble prediction) can reduce uncertainty and increase efficacy of conservation action when models corroborate one another and increase understanding of the system when they do not.     

Where the wild things are: predicting hotspots of seabird aggregations in the California Current System

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide an important tool for conservation of marine ecosystems. To be most effective, these areas should be strategically located in a manner that supports ecosystem function. To inform marine spatial planning and support strategic establishment of MPAs within the California Current System, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies aggregations of seabirds ("hotspots"). We developed habitat-association models for 16 species using information from at-sea observations collected over an 11-year period (1997-2008), bathymetric data, and remotely sensed oceanographic data for an area from north of Vancouver Island, Canada, to the USA/Mexico border and seaward 600 km from the coast. This approach enabled us to predict distribution and abundance of seabirds even in areas of few or no surveys. We developed single-species predictive models using a machine-learning algorithm: bagged decision trees. Single-species predictions were then combined to identify potential hotspots of seabird aggregation, using three criteria: (1) overall abundance among species, (2) importance of specific areas ("core areas") to individual species, and (3) predicted persistence of hotspots across years. Model predictions were applied to the entire California Current for four seasons (represented by February, May, July, and October) in each of 11 years. Overall, bathymetric variables were often important predictive variables, whereas oceanographic variables derived from remotely sensed data were generally less important. Predicted hotspots often aligned with currently protected areas (e.g., National Marine Sanctuaries), but we also identified potential hotspots in Northern California/Southern Oregon (from Cape Mendocino to Heceta Bank), Southern California (adjacent to the Channel Islands), and adjacent to Vancouver Island, British Columbia, that are not currently included in protected areas. Prioritization and identification of multispecies hotspots will depend on which group of species is of highest management priority. Modeling hotspots at a broad spatial scale can contribute to MPA site selection, particularly if complemented by fine-scale information for focal areas.     

An island biogeography approach for understanding changes in compositional similarity at present scenario of biotic homogenization

Local extinction of native species and colonization of non-native species are commonly invoked as responsible for changes in species similarity among biotas of different regions. In this study we used a model of species similarity between islands to assess the emergent, and unexplored, effects of changes in colonization by native species, extinction of non-native species, and propagule pressure on species similarity among insular communities. The model predicts that extinction probability of endemic species has a positive but asymptotic effect on species similarity, which is exacerbated by increasing colonization and reducing extinction of non-native species. Species similarity tends to increase with increasing colonization probability by non-native species, however this effect may be reduced, or even reverted, when the islands are exposed to an elevated number of non-native species that are prone to extinction, high levels of endemic species loss, and an initially large number of native species shared between islands. Species similarity was positively affected by the propagule pressure rate of non-native species only when their colonization and extinction probabilities were large and small enough, respectively. A negative effect of propagule pressure rate can be caused by an increase in the pool size of non-native species, which involves the introduction of different species into different islands, promoting biotic differentiation between islands. Our results indicate that the interactions between colonization, extinction and species pool lead to nonlinear responses and unexpected scenarios of biotic change. In order to validate model predictions, future research programs should focus on understanding the dynamics on such complex meta-communities where coexist native, non-native and endemic species.     

Assessing geobiosphere work of generating global reserves of coal, crude oil, and natural gas

A teacher of ours used to say, “Like ice in a fire, something for nothing you will never acquire”, which is a poetic equivalent of “there is no such a thing as a free lunch”. Human economies are dependent on high quality fossil fuels and will likely continue depending on them for some time to come. Value of a resource is not only what one pays for it, or what can be extracted from it, but also value can be attributed to the “effort” required in its production. In this analysis we apply the emergy synthesis method to evaluate the work invested by the geobiosphere to generate the global storages of fossil energy resources. The upgrading of raw resources to secondary fuels is also evaluated. The analysis relies on published estimates of historic, global net primary production (NPP) on land and oceans, published preservation and conversion factors of organic matter, and assessments of the present total global storages of coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Results show that the production of coal resources over geologic time required between 6.63E4 (±0.51E4) seJ/J and 9.71E4 (±0.79E4) seJ/J, while, oil and natural gas resources required about 1.48E5 (±0.07 E5) seJ/J and 1.70E5 (±0.06E5) seJ/J, respectively. These values are between 1.5 and 2.5 times larger than previous estimates and acknowledge a far greater power of fossil fuels in driving and shaping modern society.