基于"R-L"技术的风电系统可靠性预测分析

随着化石燃料的日益枯竭和生态环境的逐渐恶化,风能凭借其清洁、环保、可再生等诸多优势,引起了能源行业的高度重视。然而,由于风速具有显著的随机性和波动性,风电场馈入电网的功率往往具有较大的不确定性,从而影响电网的安全经济运行,甚至会造成严重的电力故障。因此,有必要采用合理的预测方法获取风电场在未来某一时间段的出力,并量化其对电力系统运行可靠性的影响。本文提出一种风电出力的预测方法,以已有历史风电出力和负荷数据为基础,应用"R-L"技术建立风电系统的等效模型,通过对该模型的模拟,得到未来一年内满足负荷需求量的预期发电量,以此评估风电系统的可靠性。以某一装机容量为15 MW的风电场为对象,将采用所提方法得到的模拟数据与实际数据进行比较,验证了所提算法的有效性。     

Mechanisms of cardiovascular toxicity induced by PM2.5: a review

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - An increasing number of studies have shown that exposure to particulate matter with a diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) could affect the onset and...     

Low ambient temperature increases hospital re-admissions for systemic lupus erythematosus in humid subtropical region: a time series study

Currently, the correlation between ambient temperature and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) hospital admissions remains not determined. The aim of this study was to explore the correlation between ambient temperature and SLE hospital admissions in Hefei City, China. An ecological study design was adopted. Daily data on SLE hospital admissions in Hefei City, from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2017, were obtained from the two largest tertiary hospitals in Hefei, and the daily meteorological data at the same period were retrieved from China Meteorological Data Network. The generalized additive model (GAM) combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with Poisson link was applied to evaluate the influence of ambient temperature on SLE hospital admissions after controlling for potential confounding factors, including seasonality, relative humidity, day of week, and long-term trend. There were 1658 SLE hospital admissions from 2007 to 2017, including 370 first admissions and 1192 re-admissions (there were 96 admissions with admission status not stated). No correlation was observed between ambient temperature and SLE first admissions, but a correlation was found between low ambient temperature and SLE re-admissions (RR: 2.53, 95% CI: 1.11, 5.77) (3.5 °C vs 21 °C). The effect of ambient temperature on SLE re-admissions remained for 2 weeks but disappeared in 3 weeks. Exposure to low ambient temperature may increase hospital re-admissions for SLE, and thus it is important for SLE patients to maintain a warm living environment and avoid exposure to lower ambient temperature.

     

OPTIMUM STORAGE VOLUME OF ROOFTOP RAIN WATER HARVESTING SYSTEMS FOR DOMESTIC USE1

ABSTRACT: Major parameters and optimum storage volumes of rooftop rain water harvesting systems (RRWHSs) have not been investigated in detail in Taiwan. Accordingly, the four major parameters of RRWHSs were herein identified and elucidated using a simulation method. Because the performance of the RRWHSs is sensitive to the runoff coefficient, a field experiment was conducted to determine the runoff coefficient more precisely for various types of roofs. A simulation model including production theory was developed and employed to estimate the most cost effective combination of the roof area and the storage capacity that best supplies a specific volume of water. Consequently, the expansion path of optimum solutions for different volumetric reliability of water supply can be determined. Additionally, the method based on the marginal rate of substitution can be used for determining the rational volumetric reliability. The procedures developed herein constitute an effective tool for preliminarily estimating the most satisfactory storage capacity of any specific roof area and for determining the rational reliability of a corresponding water supply.     

武汉市大旅游网络建设研究

从地理位置、对外经济联系、国内和省内经济地位、旅游资源丰度等方面分析了武汉市发展旅游事业的有利条件；论证了建设以武汉市为中心，向郊区（县）、省内和邻省延伸的旅游网络的必要性和可行性及发展国际旅游的潜力；提出了大力加强景点和基础设施建设，改善周边交通条件，壮大地方航空公司等加快旅游业发展的对策和措施。     

生态城市建设中的生态农业对策--以南京为例

建设生态城市是城市发展的必然要求。都市生态农业是建设生态城市的必要条件。本文以南京为例，讨论建设都市生态农业的具体对策。     

川西北两栖爬行动物资源及其利用与保护

川西北地区位于青藏高原东南部,现有两栖爬行动物67种(亚种),其中两栖类28种,爬行类39种;珍稀、濒危种约占22.4%,经济意义大、有利用价值的种占29.8%,经济意义一般的种占47.8%。这些动物在科研、工艺、药用、维护生态平衡等方面均有一定意义。本文对这些动物的利用现状作了评价,并对资源保护提出5点建议。     

中国湖泊湿地的功能及主要环境问题

较系统地讨论了湿地的概念,介绍了中国湖泊湿地的分布、功能及其面临的主要环境问题.湖泊湿地属于生态交错带,主要功能有调蓄水量;控制沉积和护岸;改善水质;调节局部气候;是多种生物重要的栖息地.湖泊湿地面临的主要环境问题是湿地大量消失;污染日趋严重;肓目引进外来物种导致生态失衡.     

高速公路建设项目水土流失预测方法研究

根据当前高速公路建设项目水土流失预测结果不准确的情况，分析容易使预测结果产生偏差的影响因素，并提出了相应的预测方法。     

回灌条件下垃圾填埋体析出氨氮总量模型

文章在试验基础上提出垃圾厌氧填埋场达到稳定后，温度与渗滤液中氨氮析出总量呈二次关系，对试验数据进行相关性分析，其相关系数R2达到0．9185，从而验证了该二次函数关系的正确性。同时本文提出了回灌条件下，垃圾厌氧填埋体氨氮析出总量的模型，为今后该方面研究工作的进一步展开提供借鉴。