International oil market – new directions

This article focuses on changes in the international petroleum industry during the past 20 years and examines some major trends, especially since the oil price collapse of 1986. The resumption of rapid increases in oil demand since 1986 in the developed market economies and the developing world has already led to a pronounced production shift to OPEC member countries where output increased by 6.6 million barrels per day or, 37% since 1985. Cutbacks in petroleum investments in non-OPEC countries are likely to result in even more dependence on the vast proved oil reserves of OPEC. However, the gap between peak output and sustainable production capacities in OPEC has narrowed and there is an urgent need for sizeable investments to expand capacities. Such investment programmes are already being implemented by transnational oil corporations in countries such as Indonesia and Nigeria where the companies had retained equity participation. In other countries such as Iraq and Venezuela where oil operations had been nationalized, transnational oil corporations are being invited to participate in new arrangements for oil production. New arrangements are also being considered in Eastern Europe and the USSR. New understandings, dialogue and cooperation between oil-consuming and producing countries will be necessary for the security of investments, supplies and markets in this process. The unanswered question is whether such cooperation can be achieved in time in order to avoid yet another energy crisis.     

Infrared spectroscopy studies of the photooxidation of a polyethylene nonwoven fabric

The photooxidation of a nonwoven polyethylene fabric was investigated using Fourier transform infrared photoacoustic spectroscopy. The infrared spectroscopic data indicated that hydroperoxide, alcohol, aldehyde, ketone, carboxylic acid, and anhydride groups were formed as the products of the photooxidation of the polyethylene fabric and that the relative amount of carboxyl among all carbonyls increased as the photooxidation progressed. The distribution of the photooxidation products was inhomogeneous between the two surfaces of the fabric. The highest degree of photooxidation occurred on the surface of the fabric facing the UV radiation source, whereas the lowest degree of photooxidation was on the back surface of the fabric. We also found that the polyethylene nonwoven fabric showed a slower photooxidation rate than the polypropylene nonwoven fabric. The UV radiation at 254 nm caused photooxidation of polyethylene. No photooxidation was observed in the fabric exposed to the UV radiation at 350 nm under the same conditions.     

ESTIMATED CONSUMPTIVE LOSS FROM MAN-MADE SNOW1

ABSTRACT: Consumptive loss of water attributable to man-made snowmaking was estimated using an energy balance model and a mass balance procedure. Data from nine field experiments at Colorado ski areas were collected and used in these models. The mean consumptive loss using the energy balance model for the nine experiments was 6.0 percent and 5.8 percent for the mass balance model A thermodynamic relationship and a regression equation were developed to provide a procedure to estimate consumptive loss as a linear function of atmospheric temperature.     

Biomonitors of stream quality in agricultural areas: Fish versus invertebrates

Although the utility of using either fish or benthic invertebrates as biomonitors of stream quality has been clearly shown, there is little comparative information on the usefulness of the groups in any particular situation. We compared fish to invertebrate assemblages in their ability to reflect habitat quality of sediment-impacted streams in agricultural regions of northeast Missouri, USA. Habitat quality was measured by a combination of substrate composition, riparian type, buffer strip width, and land use. Invertebrates were more sensitive to habitat differences when structural measurements, species diversity and ordination, were used. Incorporating ecological measurements, by using the Index of Biological Integrity, increased the information obtained from the fish assemblage. The differential response of the two groups was attributed to the more direct impact of sediments on invertebrate life requisites; the impact of sedimentation on fish is considered more indirect and complex, affecting feeding and reproductive mechanisms.The Unit is sponsored by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the Missouri Department of Conservation and the University of Missouri.     

Land use change and carbon exchange in the tropics: III. Structure,basic equations,and sensitivity analysis of the model

The rationale, assumptions, structure and basic mathematical functions of the model used to produce the simulation results reported in the first two articles of this series are described in detail. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the most important parameters in the model, and, presumably, in the carbon exchange between tropical forests and the atmosphere, are: (a) the conversion rate of forests to permanent pasture and agriculture, (b) the changes that are occurring and have occurred in the shifting cultivation system, and (c) the fate of cleared vegetation. Although it is not possible to validate the model against direct measurements of carbon exchange, the model has been proven robust when subject to a series of explicit analyses and comparisons with other assessments.     

Land use change and carbon exchange in the tropics: II. Estimates for the entire region

Determining the effect of tropical land use on the carbon dioxide (CO₂) content of the atmosphere requires: (a) estimates of the rates of land use change, (b) estimates of the difference between the carbon stored in forests and that stored in pastures and cultivated fields, and (c) a consideration of the fate of carbon stored in the cleared vegetation. The first article of this series analyzed land use in four tropical countries and estimated the carbon released to the atmosphere as a consequence of changes in land use. This article estimates the carbon released from the entire tropical region based on the two published studies of land use change for the tropics as a whole that distinguish between temporary and permanent land use: Seiler and Crutzen (1980) and Lanly (1982). We combine these estimates with two estimates of the difference in carbon storage between forests and fields derived from Whittaker and Likens (1975) and Brown and Lugo (1982), and the two scenarios of the fate of cleared vegetation, developed in the previous article, to produce several complete sets of data describing the necessary parameters to calculate carbon exchange. These data sets, entered into our model, produce a range of estimates of the annual release of carbon from tropical vegetation in 1980 of from 0.6 to 1.8 BMT/year, with the more likely range being 0.9–1.2 BMT/year. Our preliminary analysis suggests that the release from tropical soils due to land use change adds about an additional 0.3 BMT C/year, so that the total release is probably between 1.2 and 1.5 BMT C/year. Peng and others (1983) reported that new models of the oceanic carbon cycle can accommodate at least 1.2 BMT C/year in 1980 from forests and soils. Our results indicate that, given the uncertainties in the size of both the biotic release and oceanic uptake, the global carbon budget may be balanced if there is no significant release from nontropical ecosystems due to land use change and all mature ecosystems are in collective equilibrium with the atmosphere.     

Acid deposition in aquatic ecosystems: Setting limits empirically

The problem of acid deposition and its harmful effects on aquatic ecosystems has created a new branch of science that is called upon to provide the knowledge on which legislative controls can be based. However, because of the nature of existing legislation, which requires evidence of cause and effect between industrial emissions and pollution, and because of science's inability to provide this information over the short term, considerable controversy has arisen about whether sufficient information exists to warrant control measures at this time. Among those who advocate controls, there is genuine divergence of opinion about how stringent the controls must be to achieve any desired level of protection.The controversy has led to an impasse between the scientific and political participants, which is reflected in the slow pace of progress toward an effective management strategy. Resolution of the impasse, at least in the short term, may demand that science and politics rely on empirical models rather than explanatory ones. The empirical model, which is the major proposal in this article, integrates all of the major variables and many of the minor ones, and constructs a three-dimensionally curved surface capable of representing the status of any waterbody subjected to the effects of acid deposition. When suitably calibrated—a process involving the integration of knowledge and data from aquatic biology, geochemistry, meteorology, and limnology—it can be used to depict limits to the rate of acid deposition required for any level of environmental protection. Because it can generate a pictorial display of the effects of management decisions and legislative controls, the model might serve as a basis for enhancing the quality of communication among all the scientific and political participants and help to resolve many of their controversies.     

WETLAND BOUNDARIES IN THE NEW JERSEY PINELANDS: ECOLOGICAL RELATIONSHIPS AND DELINEATION1

Wetland protection regulations and guidelines often require the delineation of precise wetland boundaries on a case-by-case basis. In this study, conducted in the New Jersey Pinelands, an ecological characterization of vegetation composition, soil and hydrologic relationships along upland to wetland Pinus rigida - dominated transittions provided the basis for a multiparameter approach to wetland boundary delineation. The transitional data set was analyzed by direct gradient analysis, cluster analysis and ordination. It is concluded that vegetation composition can be a principal factor in delineating wetland boundaries along natural upland to wetland transitions. However, where distinct vegetation changes are not observed, a feature of our study sites, a multiparameter approach should be used.     

Hydrologic modeling as a predictive basis for ecological restoration of salt marshes

Roads, bridges, causeways, impoundments, and dikes in the coastal zone often restrict tidal flow to salt marsh ecosystems. A dike with tide control structures, located at the mouth of the Herring River salt marsh estuarine system (Wellfleet, Massachusetts) since 1908, has effectively restricted tidal exchange, causing changes in marsh vegetation composition, degraded water quality, and reduced abundance of fish and macroinvertebrate communities. Restoration of this estuary by reintroduction of tidal exchange is a feasible management alternative. However, restoration efforts must proceed with caution as residential dwellings and a golf course are located immediately adjacent to and in places within the tidal wetland. A numerical model was developed to predict tide height levels for numerous alternative openings through the Herring River dike. Given these model predictions and knowledge of elevations of flood-prone areas, it becomes possible to make responsible decisions regarding restoration. Moreover, tidal flooding elevations relative to the wetland surface must be known to predict optimum conditions for ecological recovery. The tide height model has a universal role, as demonstrated by successful application at a nearby salt marsh restoration site in Provincetown, Massachusetts. Salt marsh restoration is a valuable management tool toward maintaining and enhancing coastal zone habitat diversity. The tide height model presented in this paper will enable both scientists and resource professionals to assign a degree of predictability when designing salt marsh restoration programs.