Integrating Concepts and Models from Development Econoimcs with Land use Change in the Tropics

In this paper I undertake a preliminary assessment for the tropics of the relation of economic development, meaning in general increases in economic activity as measured by e.g. GDP, and its normal biophysical corollaries of increased resource use and land use change. I also examine each in relation to the intellectual concepts that underlie and guide what is commonly called economic development. Because most of the development literature is derived from economics or other social sciences, and focuses almost entirely on lifting people’s standards of living as measured in monetary units, very little examines the per unit biophysical requirements of that development, including energy or other resource use requirements, land use change or other environmental consequences of development plans. In addition there seems to be insufficient connection between those who create economic development plans and those who undertake empirical biophysical assessments to determine whether the development plan has worked or can possibly work. The problem is deeper: there exists a series of models used in the development literature that have been used to encourage and guide development. These models have received very little scrutiny as to either their efficacy or their societal or environmental impacts until quite recently. When this has been done the models have been shown to fail miserably. It is time to develop a new model of development that synthesizes conventional economic, biophysical economic and social aspects, and that is based on the scientific method rather than on perceived wisdom. This model must also take into account population growth, issues of who wins and who looses from economic development, and the implications of the incipient peak in global oil production.     

Invasive diagnostic procedures in twin pregnancies

The rising rate of multiple pregnancies and its association with advanced maternal age has expanded the need for prenatal diagnosis in twins and higher order gestations. The complexity of the invasive diagnostic procedures and the risk of loss of an unaffected twin raise significant clinical, technical and ethical issues. In this review we discuss the specific issues of early scanning, counseling and determination of chorionicity prior to invasive procedures in twins. We present the available data describing the risk associated with these procedures in twins and compare data of fetal loss rate from different studies. We also discuss the issues of fetal blood sampling and late karyotyping in twin pregnancies. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Detection of metal contamination in wild asparagus near a waste disposal site

Estimating contaminant distributions in environmental media is necesary to evaluate human and ecological hazards. Because of uncertainties in release histories and transport, traditional sampling and statistical techniques applicable to the experimental sciences may not be suitable for exploratory studies at hazardous waste sites. An approach that relies on cluster analysis of principal components (PCA) was used to identify contaminated wild asparagus (Asparagus officinalis) growing in the vicinity of waste disposal sites along the Columbia River at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southeast Washington state. Metals in soil samples taken from the sites contained elevated levels of Ag, Al, Ba, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, Zn, and V. Samples of asparagus tissue were collected from the river near the waste site, from Hanford old fields abandoned 52 years ago, and from commercial fields in the neighboring communities. Dried tissues were analyzed for metals content by ICP-mass spectrometry, furnace AA, and cold vapor AA. Tissue concentrations of elements varied over 5 orders of magnitude, from K at 46 900 ppm to As and Ag at maximum concentrations below 1 ppm. PCA produced four components that accounted for 66.2% of the metals variance. Subsequent cluster analysis using Ward's minimum variance separated the data into Columbia River and old-field groups, with the River group further divided into three clusters: plants primarily upriver from the waste sites, plants primarily downriver, and plants growing in or near the waste sites. The clustering showed that the more soluble components of the discharges (Ba and Ca) showed a pattern of distribution in the asparagus plants consistent with the ground water flow pattern, in that these elements were found far downriver of the disposal sites themselves. In contrast, the less mobile elements Al, Cd, Cr, Fe, Mn, Tl, and Zn were elevated only near the most-recently used waste disposal area. Asparagus from agricultural fields, including fields abandoned 50 years ago, contained higher concentrations of Fe, Cu, Pb, K, and Ni than did the wild riverine plants.The U.S. Governments right to retain a non-exclusive royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Conditional Water Rights in the Western United States: Introducing Uncertainty to Prior Appropriation?

In the prior‐appropriation water rights regimes that prevail in the arid western United States, claims to annually variable surface water flows are fulfilled based on the order of their establishment. The two‐step process used to establish an appropriative water right in all 17 conterminous western states creates a temporary phase, or conditional water right, which has a priority date but no actual water use. We provide a review of the legal basis for these conditional water rights and demonstrate the potential uncertainty they introduce to current water users. We then present a complete census of conditional water rights in Colorado, including their amounts, ages, and uses. At the end of 2012 there were a large number of conditional water rights in Colorado (some over 90 years old) equal to 61% of the perfected water rights. Many of the controversial conditional water rights in Colorado have been associated with unconventional oil production in the northwestern portion of the state; however, conditional water rights are ubiquitous across the state and across many use types. In several basins, their existence can introduce uncertainty to some of the most senior water rights holders. Nevertheless, in most of the state, the effects of conditional water rights are restricted to a relatively junior class of water users. This work quantifies for the first time the result, in one state, of a peculiar aspect of water law common across all western prior‐appropriation states.     

The additionality problem with offsets: Optimal contracts for carbon sequestration in forests

Carbon offsets are a frequently discussed tool for reducing the costs of an emissions reduction policy. However, offsets have a basic problem stemming from asymmetric information. Sellers of offsets have private information about their opportunity costs, leading to concerns about whether offsets are additional. Non-additional offsets can undermine a cap-and-trade program or, if the government purchases them directly, result in enormous government expenditures. We analyze contracts for carbon sequestration in forests that mitigate the asymmetric information problem. Landowners are offered a menu of two-part contracts that induces them to reveal their type. Under this scheme, the government is able to identify ex post how much additional forest each landowner contributes and minimize ex ante its expenditures on carbon sequestration. To explore the performance of the contracting scheme, we conduct a national-scale simulation using an econometric model of land-use change. The results indicate that for an increase in forest area of 61 million acres, government expenditures are $5.3 billion lower under the contracting approach compared to a uniform subsidy offered to all landowners. This compares to an increase in private opportunity costs of just $110 million dollars under the contracts. Thus, the contracting scheme is preferable from society's perspective.     

Cost-Effectiveness of a Photochemical Oxidant Episode Regulation

The precursors used to conduct and the results of a cost-effectiveness study of photochemical oxidant episode control actions for the State of Illinois are analyzed. The method is general enough to be used in analyzing short-term episode regulations in other geographical areas and for other types of pollutants. Real costs and the probable emission reductions of the precursor compounds to oxidant formation, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides, are estimated for each of twenty-two control actions and for sets of control actions that are implemented at four episode stages. Control actions affect the use of motor vehicles and parking facilities; scheduling of road repairs; and the operation of manufacturing and other facilities having process emissions, electric power plants, commercial establishments, and refuse incinerators. The actions are analyzed and compared on the basis of relative economic efficiency. The expected annual cost of the regulation and the distribution of cost across sectors are also discussed. The annual cost of the oxidant episode regulation in the Chicago SMSA Is estimated to be $12.9 million; expected annual emission reductions are 1180 ton hydrocarbons and 970 ton nitrogen oxide. It is concluded that the expected cost of the regulation is not overly restrictive if the frequency of major curtailments in manufacturing and transportation is low; the cost is relatively small compared with the estimated annual cost of sulfur dioxide and particulate controls.     

Optimal oil tanker size with regard to environmental impact of oil spills

This paper considers optimal tanker size in view of the environmental effects of oil spills. A model is developed that incorporates the tradeoff between small but frequent spills with many tankers, and the relatively less frequent but larger and more concentrated spills with a smaller fleet of larger ships. A procedure is suggested to incorporate the environmental impact of oil spills in the model without quantifying them in monetary units. A closed form solution set for optimal tankers size is obtained and some numerical results are presented.