Bushmeat Markets on Bioko Island as a Measure of Hunting Pressure

Abstract: Counts of the number of animal carcasses arriving at Malabo market, Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea, were made during two, 8-month study periods in 1991 and 1996. Comparisons of the availability and abundance of individual species between years showed that more species and more carcasses appeared in 1996 than in 1991. In biomass terms, the increase was significantly less, only 12.5%, when compared with almost 60% more carcasses entering the market in 1996. A larger number of carcasses of the smaller-bodied species (i.e., rodents and the blue duiker [ Cephalophus monticola ] ) were recorded in 1996 than in 1991. Although an additional four species of birds and one squirrel were recorded in 1996, these were less important in terms of their contribution to biomass or carcass numbers. Concurrently, there was a dramatic reduction in the larger-bodied species, Ogilby's duiker ( C. ogilbyi ) and seven diurnal primates. We examined these changes, especially the drop in the number of larger animals. We considered the possible following explanations: (1) the number of hunters dropped either because of enforced legislation or scarcity of larger prey; (2) a shift in the use of hunting techniques occurred (   from shotguns to snares); or (3) consumer demand for primate and duiker meat dropped, which increased demand for smaller game. Our results suggest that the situation in Bioko may be alarmingly close to a catastrophe in which primate populations of international conservation significance are being hunted to dangerously low numbers. Although there is still a need for surveys of actual densities of prey populations throughout the island, working with the human population on Bioko to find alternatives to bushmeat is an urgent priority.     

Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

海洋环境服役发动机腐蚀损伤分析及防护能力提升建议

通过我国航空发动机海洋环境服役过程中腐蚀情况的调研,结合文献资料,分析腐蚀防护与控制技术的应用现状,提出未来工作建议。目前海洋环境服役航空发动机的腐蚀防护与控制缺少贯穿方案论证、设计研制、使用维修等全寿命周期各阶段的综合考虑,制约解决腐蚀问题的关键技术没有突破,研制生产过程中,存在耐腐蚀性能评估不合理的问题。应开展腐蚀智能监测、识别、模拟仿真等技术的研发与应用,实现海洋环境服役发动机的腐蚀损伤监控与预警,构建发动机腐蚀环境适应性试验评价技术体系,满足新体制下装备试验鉴定工作要求。急需开展长寿命防护涂层技术、维护技术专项研究,以适应严酷海洋大气环境和航空动力装置高可靠性研制要求。     

火电建设项目环境影响评价基础数据库建设方案与应用

针对火电建设项目环境影响评价的特点,提出了火电建设项目环境影响评价基础数据库的资料入库格式和内容要求。结合数据库的分类统计和GIS地理信息系统的空间分析功能,提出了基础数据库的数据处理与统计分析及数据库应用系统的建设方案,并得到初步应用。     

基于RS和GIS的长江安庆段岸线资源评价

应用遥感影像结合GIS相关技术对长江安庆段岸线进行解译、分类，查清长江安庆段岸线资源分类长度，并采用岸前水深和岸线稳定性两个评价指标对岸线资源进行分等评价，兼顾岸前航道水域宽度和后方陆域场地条件两个限制性因素，综合确定岸线条件的优劣。评价结果：长江安庆段岸线总长度为249．6km，一级、二级优良岸线62．4km，三级岸线187．2km；开发条件较好的岸线有周家湾一套口、沟口-老湖塔和谭家沟-马船沟三段。最后结合安庆市经济发展背景、区位条件对安庆沿江岸线资源开发分段提出若干建议。     

蔬菜灰霉病生防菌的筛选与防效试验初报

针对灰霉病对大棚蔬菜生产造成的严重危害,从不同生态环境条件下筛选到４种对灰霉病菌（由Ｂｏｔｒｙｔｉｓｃｉｎｅｒｅａ引起）有拮抗作用的生防菌株,并进行了初步鉴定．室内和田间试验表明,４种生防菌株中尤以绿色木霉（Ｔｒｉｃｈｏｄｅｒｍａｖｉｒｉｄｅ）ＬＴＲ２的防治效果为最佳,达到了８０％以上     

天津市中心城区集中供应管网末梢水的抗生素耐药基因污染特征研究

为了研究天津市中心城区集中供应管网末梢水的抗生素耐药基因(antibiotic resistance genes,ARGs)污染特征,采集了天津市中心城区6个采样点的管网末梢水样,分别采用微孔滤膜正压过滤法及核酸吸附-洗脱法富集水中细菌和胞外核酸后,利用实时定量PCR技术对15种胞内ARGs和胞外ARGs进行定量检测....