Estimating Trophic State Proportions of a Regional Lake Population: Are Larger Samples Always Better?

During the summers of 1991–1994, the Environmental Monitoringand Assessment Program (EMAP) sampled 344 lakes throughout thenortheastern United States using a proportional stratified sampling design based on lake size. Approximately one-quarter ofthe 344 lakes were sampled each year (4 years) for totalphosphorus to determine the proportion (and associated95% confidence intervals) of the northeast lake population 1ha (11,076 ± 1,699 lakes) that was in oligotrophic,mesotrophic, eutrophic, or heupereutropic (4 classes) conditionaccording to the total phosphorus criteria of the North AmericaLake Manegement Society. Estimates for the second, third, andfourth yr were developed as cumulative of the previous yrsamples and the current yr samples for the northeast as a wholeand for each of its three ecoregions (4 regions). New confidence intervals were computed for each cumulative yrcondition estimate. This produced a total (4 years × 4classes × 4 regions) of 64 cumulative yr tropic conditionestimates. Confidence intervals for 21% of these estimates didnot shorten with increased sample size. This phenomena raisedquestions about the accuracy of estimates based on cumulativesampling procedures. We explain why and how the phenomenon comesabout with both straight random and proportional randomsampling. Further, we present an example of the effects thisphenomenon has on lake tropic state condition estimates in thenortheastern United States.     

A ten channel fibre-optic device for distributed sensing of underground hydrocarbon leakage

With millions of fuel storage tanks and oil pipelines installed around the world, there is inevitably frequent leakage of potentially hazardous hydrocarbons. As many of these installations are below ground, it can often be many years before the extent of the leak is discovered. We have previously reported the development of a sensor for the detection of such subterranean leaks, using infrared reflectometry to interrogate a hydrocarbon sensitive membrane. However, a single sensor cannot provide any information about the flow rate or direction of the leak. This paper describes the extension of the technology to a multi-channel distributed sensing system, using optical fibres capable of distributing the sensors over large subterranean areas. Results are reported from the evaluation of the device, which consisted of monitoring the movement of different hydrocarbons (gasoline, diesel and insulating oil) through a vertical sand-filled vessel.     

Study of the relationships between bone lead levels and its variation with time and the cumulative blood lead index, in a repeated bone lead survey

The study aims were to: (i) investigate long term human lead metabolism by measuring the change of lead concentration in the tibia and calcaneus; and (ii) assess whether improved industrial hygiene was resulting in a slow accumulation of lead in an exposed workforce. 109Cd excited K X-ray fluorescence was used to measure tibia lead and calcaneus lead concentrations in 101 workers in a secondary lead smelter. 51 subjects had had similar bone lead measurements 5 years previously. Most of the other subjects had been hired since the first survey. Measurements of whole blood lead were available for the large majority of subjects. Tibia lead concentrations fell significantly (p<0.001) in the 51 subjects with repeated bone lead measurements, from a mean of 39 microg Pb (g bone mineral)(-1) to 33 microg Pb (g bone mineral)(-1). The change correlated negatively with the initial tibia lead concentration, producing an estimate for an overall half-life of 15 years, with a 95% confidence interval of 9 to 55 years. Adding continuing lead exposure and recirculation of bone lead stores to the regression models produced half-life estimates of 12 and 9 years, respectively, for release of lead from the tibia. The repeat subjects showed no net change in calcaneus lead (64 microg Pb (g bone mineral)(-1) initially, 65 microg Pb (g bone mineral)(-1) 5 years later). Subjects not measured previously had average lead concentrations of 15 microg Pb (g bone mincral)(-1) in the tibia and 13 microg Pb (g bone mineral)(-1) in the calcaneus. The rate of clearance of lead from the tibia (9 to 15 years) is towards the more rapid end of previous estimates. The lack of a significant fall in the calcaneus lead was surprising. Attempts should be made to repeat this observation. If confirmed, it would have implications for models of lead metabolism. The relatively low lead concentrations in the non-repeat subjects are reassuring. However, observation after a longer period of employment would be desirable.     

Determination of n-alkanes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in atmospheric particulate and vapour phases in Oviedo, Spain, by GC-MS

A GC-MS procedure for the determination of hydrocarbons in air samples from Oviedo, Spain, was developed. Air hydrocarbons were sampled with a high volume sampler equipped with a holder containing a glass fiber filter, to trap the particulate phase, and two polyurethane foams to capture hydrocarbons of the vapour phase. Compounds were extracted with CH2Cl2 by Soxhlet extraction and then fractionated using column chromatography with alumina silica. Analyses of the fractions were performed by GC-MS in the electron ionization mode. PAHs and n-alkanes were the compounds examined in this work. Samples collected in the vicinity of the Faculty of Chemistry (a semi-urban area) were analysed. The total concentration of PAHs in the air samples analysed ranged from 28 to 76 ng m(-3). The total concentration of n-alkanes and PAHs in the vapour phase exceeded the concentration in the particulate phase in the samples analysed.     

Young northern pike,yellow perch and crayfish as bioindicators in a mercury contaminated watercourse

Young-of-the-year and yearling northern pike (Esox lucius), yearling yellow perch (Perca flavescens) and adult crayfish (Orconectes virilis) were collected in the mercury-contaminated Wabigoon/English/Winnipeg River System, Ontario, and analyzed for total mercury. Analysis of mercury concentrations in these organisms produced consistent geographical trends; i.e. mercury concentrations in biota downstream of Dryden > English River system > Winnipeg River system > control sites. In the Wabigoon River system the bioavailability of mercury increases with distance downstream of the historical point source. Mercury concentrations in the biota studied were highly correlated with mercury concentrations in fish species which are of sport and commercial interest. The locations where young fish obtain their bodyburdens are known typically within 100 m. The biota studied compare favourably with the criteria proposed by Phillips (1980) as prerequisites for biological indicators. The wide distribution of young pike, perch and crayfish in North America, Europe and Asia may enhance their appeal as biomonitors.The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. No endorsement should be inferred.     

Temporal variation in a coral reef community at Pattaya Bay,Gulf of Thailand

Changes in the fringing coral reef community of a small island (Ko Nok) at Pattaya Bay, Gulf of Thailand, were examined at the beginning and at the end of a 3-year period using 7m×7m permanent quadrats for benthic organisms, and visual census along 100m transects for fish. The coral community was dominated by Porites lutea in terms of colony number and areal cover throughout the period. Variations in the community structure parameters on opposite sides of the island indicated increasing dissimilarity with time. Little variation in live coral cover was noted, but colony number and species diversity declined on both sides. The abundance of edible fish species dropped while that of non-edible species increased over the 3-year period, indicating selective removal of the former category through fishing. Impacts from both human and natural influences are implicated in these changes.     

Analysis of two-way layout of count data with negative binomial variation

A number of methods has been proposed for dealing with single-factor or factorial experiments when the requirements for performing the normal theory analysis of variance procedure are not satisfied. This paper suggests the use of the likelihood ratio statistic for testing the main effects and the interaction between the factors in two-way layout of count data following negative binomial distributions with a common dispersion parameter. The likelihood ratio statistic for testing the equality of the dispersion parameters of several groups of count data is also derived. The methods is illustrated by an example concerning the study of spatial and temporal variation of bacterial counts.     

Spatial analysis and mapping the annual mean concentrations of acidity and major ions in precipitation over the United Kingdom in 1986

The composition of precipitation is being monitored in collectors sited throughout the United Kingdom. In the first year, 1986, hydrogen ion, nitrate, ammonium and non-marine sulphate were measured in samples from 47 sites and annual mean concentrations determined. Spatial analysis based on Regionalized Variable Theory revealed autocorrelation in all four ions and reasonable bounded models were fitted to the sample variogram of all four. These were then used to estimate values of a fine mesh grid by simple kriging, and the estimates were then contoured. The estimation errors were similarly mapped, and both sets of maps are presented. The maps show that concentrations of these ions are greatest in eastern parts of the country, as expected from consideration of European emissions and weather patterns. For the first time estimation errors were also mapped and show how the network could be improved.     

Atmospheric haze: Its sources and effects on visibility in rural areas of the continental United States

Spatial and temporal trends in visibility are examined at a national level. It is shown that visibility is impaired in all antional parks approximately 90% of the time, and that eastern visibilities are about 10 times lower than western visibilities. Measurement of atmospheric particulates that affect visibility shows that sulfates associated with man-made emissions of sulfur dioxide are the single largest contributor to visibility reduction, except in the northwestern United States, where organic aerosols contribute significantly. In the East, coal fired power plants along the Ohio River Vallery contribute the most SO₂, while oil refining activities and other industrial sources in southern California, copper smelters in southern Arizona, and industrial activity along the Gulf Coast of Mexico contribute most of the SO₂, and thus sulfates, in the West.Contribution from Fourth World Wilderness Congress-Acid Rain Symposium, Denver (Estes Park), Colorado, September 11–18, 1987.The assumptions, findings, conclusions, judgments and views presented herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing official National Park Service policies.