Influence of peatland and land cover distribution on fire regimes in insular Southeast Asia

Anthropogenic biomass burning in insular Southeast Asia facilitates conversion and degradation of ecosystems and emits high amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. We analyzed the influence of peat soil and land cover distribution on the occurrence and characteristics of vegetation fires. Two years of satellite-based active fire detections over Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, Borneo and Java were examined together with land cover and peatland maps. Our results showed that fire occurrence nearly tripled (23,000 → 68,000) from a wet La Niña year (2008) to a drier El Niño year (2009). In both years, fires were concentrated in peatlands (in 2009 41% of fires vs. 10% of land area), and the majority of large-scale burning took place in peatlands. Variation in peatland land cover within the study area was noticed to create remarkable different fire regimes. Biomass burning in the intensely managed Sumatran peatlands was characterized by large-scale land clearance fires that took place annually to varying extent. The largely unmanaged degraded peatland ecosystems of Borneo, on the other hand, experienced very little fire activity in a wet year but were ravaged by large-scale wildfires when El Niño conditions arose. We conclude that fire regime characteristics in insular Southeast Asia are strongly connected to occurrence of peat soil and land management status. This leads to high variation of fire activity within this region both annually (depending on weather patters) and over longer time range (depending on land cover/management issues) and greatly complicates estimation of the effects of fires.     

Robust optimization evaluation of reliance on locally produced foods

While local food production may be beneficial in terms of developing the local economy and reducing greenhouse gases from transportation, sustainability strategies focused on local food production may generate their own risks due to yield variability. We have developed a robust optimization (RO) model to determine the minimum amount of land (cropland and pasture) required to grow food items that would satisfy a local population’s (accounting for gender and age) calorie and nutrient needs. This model has been applied to Boone County, Missouri, which has a population of approximately 170,000. Boone County is 1790 km², with 16% of the land defined as cropland and 30% defined as pasture. The model includes 27 nutrients from 17 potential foods that could be produced: six fruits and vegetables, five grains and six animal-sourced foods. Yield estimates are based on the predominate methods of agriculture in the USA. We first run our model assuming no variability, using the midpoint yield estimates. Then, to quantify uncertainty in yield for different food types, we use historical yield data over 10 years to estimate this variability and run our RO model under these variability estimates. We compare the two model results to illustrate the impact of data uncertainty on meeting sustainable local food for communities. Solutions suggest that nutrition needs can be met for the Boone County population within the land area defined.     

The cost-effectiveness of residential radon remediation programmes: assumptions about benefits stream profiles over time

A recent cost-effectiveness analysis of a residential radon remediation programme considered and highlighted many areas of uncertainty in the parameters chosen for the analysis. One assumption not challenged in the study was the benefits stream profile adopted. There are several different ways of loading the benefits in terms of life years into the cost-effectiveness model and several of these are explored and the results are reported in this study. The benefits profile depends upon the lead-time to cancer manifestation post environmental carcinogen (radon) exposure. The literature reviewed suggests that there are many options for loading benefits to radon-induced lung cancer prevention programmes. In this study, the alternative benefits stream profiles are explored and their implications for the cost-effectiveness ratio are examined. Adopting different benefits stream profiles to the model results in a range of cost-effectiveness ratios from 14912.90 pounds per life year gained to 52416.27 pounds per life year gained. The preferred model is reported where the life years gained are assumed to be equally distributed over the last 15 years of the 40-year time horizon of the analysis (Y25-40) and the corresponding cost-effectiveness ratio is 37,943 pounds per life year gained.     

EMPIRICAL MODELING OF HYDROLOGIC AND NFS POLLUTANT FLUX IN AN URBANIZING BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Long term effects of precipitation and land use/land cover on basin outflow and nonpoint source (NFS) pollutant flux are presented for up to 24 years for a rapidly developing headwater basin and three adjacent headwater basins on the urban fringe of Washington, D.C. Regression models are developed to describe the annual and seasonal responses of basin outflow and IMPS pollutant flux to precipitation, mean impervious surface (IS), and land use. To quantify annual change in mean IS, a variable called delta IS is created as a temporal indicator of urban soil disturbance. Hydrologic models indicate that total annual surface outflow is significantly associated with precipitation and mean IS (r²= 0.65). Seasonal hydrologic models reveal that basin outflow is positively associated with IS during the summer and fall growing season (June to November). NPS pollutant flux models indicate that total and storm total suspended solids (TSS) flux are significantly associated with precipitation and urban soil disturbance in all seasons. Annual NPS total nitrogen flux is significantly associated with both urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.51). Seasonal models of phosphorus flux indicate a significant association of total phosphorus flux with urban soil disturbance during the growing season. Total soluble phosphorus (TSP) flux is significantly associated with IS (r²= 0.34) and urban and agricultural soil disturbance (r²= 0.58). In urbanizing Cub Run basin, annual TSP concentrations are significantly associated with IS and cultivated agriculture (r²= 0.51).     

ADJUSTMENT OF STREAM CHANNEL CAPACITY FOLLOWING DAM CLOSURE,YEGUA CREEK,TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: In Yegua Creek, a principal tributary of the Brazos River in Texas, surveys of a 19 km channel reach downstream of Somerville Dam show that channel capacity decreased by an average of 65 percent in a 34 year period following dam closure. The decrease corresponds with an approximately 85 percent reduction in annual flood peaks. Channel depth has changed the most, decreasing by an average of 61 percent. Channel width remained stable with an average decrease of only 9 percent, reflecting cohesive bank materials along with the growth of riparian vegetation resulting from increased low flows during dry summer months. Although large changes in stream channel geometry are not uncommon downstream of dams, such pronounced reductions in channel capacity could have long‐term implications for sediment delivery through the system.     

Gender aspects in the management of water

Water resources increasingly need to meet the demands and needs of different sectors and to be protected against deteriorating quantity and quality. This paper discusses the different interests of men and women in the use of water resources, and what effects the neglect of female interests in particular, has on development. The authors stress that besides class and ethnic differences, the different interests of men and women also play a role in the cross-sectoral management of water resources. Water pricing, property rights and management structures are three key aspects where a gender approach is required. In the management of water resources in smaller catchment areas, several instruments for a gender approach have been developed. Discussed are gender specific participatory research, planning and tools, gender in management organizations and task divisions and involvement of multidisciplinary teams with a gender orientation.     

An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models

Problem: Motorcycles constitute about 19% of all motorized vehicles in Singapore and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 40% of total fatalities. Method: In this paper, an ordered probit model is used to examine factors that affect the injury severity of motorcycle accidents and the severity of damage to the vehicle for those crashes. Nine years of motorcycle accident data were obtained for Singapore through police reports. These data included categorical assessments of the severity of accidents based on three levels. Damage severity to the vehicle was also assessed and categorized into four levels. Categorical data of this type are best analyzed using ordered probit models because they require no assumptions regarding the ordinality of the dependent variable, which in this case is the severity score. Various models are examined to determine what factors are related to increased injury and damage severity of motorcycle accidents. Results: Factors found to lead to increases in the probability of severe injuries include the motorcyclist having non-Singaporean nationality, increased engine capacity, headlight not turned on during daytime, collisions with pedestrians and stationary objects, driving during early morning hours, having a pillion passenger, and when the motorcyclist is determined to be at fault for the accident. Factors leading to increased probability of vehicle damage include some similar factors but also show some differences, such as less damage associated with pedestrian collisions and with female drivers. In addition, it was also found that both injury severity and vehicle damage severity levels are decreasing over time.     

The rate improvement and modeling of trichloroethene photodegradation by acetone sensitizer in surfactant solution

The photodecay of trichloroethene (TCE) in surfactant solution by the help of photosensitizer (acetone, ACE) was investigated and modeled. Apart from the direct photodegradation, photosensitization is presumed to be one of the major mechanisms contributing to overall decay. Quantum yields of TCE photodecay in solution with surfactant Brij 35 and optimal ACE dosage are about 25 times higher than in Brij 35 alone. However, with an excess ACE dosage, ACE will act as a light barrier and attenuate the light intensity available for TCE photodegradation. TCE photodegradation follows a two-stage kinetics, in which a lag phase is followed by a fast decay. Mathematical models were developed for the prediction of the two-stage photodegradation, in which the remaining fraction of TCE (C/C0) in the system becomes predictable.