RESERVOIR RELEASES TO USES WITH DIFFERENT RELIABILITY REQUIREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: Releases from a reservoir may be allocated to a number of uses, each of which may require a given volume of water at a different reliability. The paper provides a method that can be used to estimate the volume of water associated with a given reliability for each use of water when the proportion of releases allocated to each use is known. These results can be used to evaluate the meeting of specified objectives under a published release policy derived by stationary stochastic dynamic programming. The results can also be used to solve water allocation problems when the probability distribution of available water is known (or can be estimated) and water has multiple uses, each of which has different volume and reliability requirements.     

Development of a database for accidents and incidents in the Greek petrochemical industry

The present paper describes the development of a database that comprises all incidents from the Greek petrochemical industry for the period 1997–2003. This database includes industrial incidents, accidents, operational accidents and near misses from all petrochemical sites in Greece and Cyprus. The design of the database has been conceived in a user-friendly way with additional possibilities for its further use, such as: statistical analysis of the data, calculation of safety indicators, accident reports and human factors analysis. The database allows the various participating industries to compare the analysis of indicators in their own installations with the national average, as the database comprises data from the entire Greek petrochemical industry. Special care has been given to include data from near misses too.     

Policing the drunk driver: measuring law enforcement involvement in reducing alcohol-impaired driving

INTRODUCTION: With many thousands of deaths still annually attributable to driving under the influence (DUI), it remains imperative that we continually address the problem of producing and sustaining effective countermeasures, and that we subject these efforts to empirical scrutiny. This article presents relevant findings from state-wide datasets. RESULTS: A formula generating a potentially useful metric for assessing aspects of the DUI prosecutorial chain is presented, focusing on the rate of proactive DUI arrests. While in need of cautious interpretation due to issues of inherent inaccuracies in large databases, small numbers of crashes and/or arrests in multiple jurisdictions, and the lack of replication in other states, the analyses show no relationship between the level of DUI arrest activity and DUI-related crashes. This finding brings into question the efficacy of the many millions of dollars devoted each year to targeted DUI enforcement, as it is currently being implemented. CONCLUSIONS: Results are discussed in terms of developing adequate disincentives to DUI so as to raise general deterrence via dramatic increases in proactive DUI enforcement and then engaging in pervasive and persistent social marketing of such efforts to maximize the perception that arrest and punishment for DUI is always imminent, that penalties will be swift, certain, and severe. It is echoed that accurate data need to be collected at all levels of the DUI arrest and prosecution process in every jurisdiction within a state, so as to facilitate the empirical assessment of countermeasure efficacy in reducing alcohol-related crashes. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Given that this work needs to be replicated, the impact on the traffic safety industry is potentially huge. The present data indicate that law enforcement efforts to further abate DUI-related crashes are apparently ineffective, though likely necessary to maintain reductions achieved in the 80s and early 90s. Thus, to attain additional systematic reductions, a dramatic increase in enforcement will be necessary as will a diversification of abatement efforts, including an increase in aggressive social marketing tactics to positively impact our traffic safety culture by making DUI universally unacceptable (for a discussion of this latter issue and on the use of positive reinforcement to change driver behavior, see Dula & Geller, 2007).     

Implications of Functional Capacity Loss and Fatality for Vehicle Safety Prioritization

Objective: We investigate the use of the Functional Capacity Index (FCI) as a tool for establishing vehicle safety priorities by comparing the life year burden of injuries to the burden of fatality in frontal and side automotive crashes. We demonstrate FCI’s utility by investigating in detail the resulting disabling injuries and their life year costs.

Methods: We selected occupants in the 2000–2013 NASS-CDS database involved in frontal and side crashes, merged their injuries with FCI, and then used the merged data to estimate each occupant’s overall functional loss. Lifetime functional loss was assessed by combining this measure of impairment with the occupants’ expected future life spans, estimated from the Social Security Administration’s Actuarial Life Table.

Results: Frontal crashes produce a large number of disabling injuries, particularly to the lower extremities. In our population, these crashes are estimated to account for approximately 400,000 life years lost to disability in comparison with 500,000 life years lost to fatality. Victims of side crashes experienced a higher rate of fatality but a significantly lower rate of disabling injury (0.3 vs. 1.0%), resulting in approximately 370,000 life years lost to fatality versus 50,000 life years lost to disability.

Conclusions: The burden of disabling injuries to car crash survivors should be considered when setting vehicle safety design priorities. In frontal crashes this burden in life years is similar to the burden attributable to fatality.     

Is there a silver lining? Aggregation and photo-transformation of silver nanoparticles in environmental waters

Is the aggregation of silver nanoparticles in environmental waters a silver lining? The answer is not simple. Clearly, however, the aggregation and photo-transformation of AgNPs are complicated and could be more significant than previously thought. The difference in the water chemistry that controls the aggregation and photo-transformation of AgNPs results in the varying behavior and fate of AgNPs among different water bodies.     

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 M_w 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.     

Recognizing reflexivity among conservation practitioners

When deciding how to conserve biodiversity, practitioners navigate diverse missions, sometimes conflicting approaches, and uncertain trade-offs. These choices are based not only on evidence, funders’ priorities, stakeholders’ interests, and policies, but also on practitioners’ personal experiences, backgrounds, and values. Calls for greater reflexivity—an individual or group's ability to examine themselves in relation to their actions and interactions with others—have appeared in the conservation science literature. But what role does reflexivity play in conservation practice? We explored how self-reflection can shape how individuals and groups conserve nature. To provide examples of reflexivity in conservation practice, we conducted a year-long series of workshop discussions and online exchanges. During these, we examined cases from the peer-reviewed and gray literature, our own experiences, and conversations with 10 experts. Reflexivity among practitioners spanned individual and collective levels and informal and formal settings. Reflexivity also encompassed diverse themes, including practitioners’ values, emotional struggles, social identities, training, cultural backgrounds, and experiences of success and failure. Reflexive processes also have limitations, dangers, and costs. Informal and institutionalized reflexivity requires allocation of limited time and resources, can be hard to put into practice, and alone cannot solve conservation challenges. Yet, when intentionally undertaken, reflexive processes might be integrated into adaptive management cycles at multiple points, helping conservation practitioners better reach their goals. Reflexivity could also play a more transformative role in conservation by motivating practitioners to reevaluate their goals and methods entirely. Reflexivity might help the conservation movement imagine and thus work toward a better world for wildlife, people, and the conservation sector itself.