Targeting aquatic microcontaminants for monitoring: exposure categorization and application to the Swiss situation

Background, aim, and scope  

Aquatic microcontaminants (MCs) comprise diverse chemical classes, such as pesticides, biocides, pharmaceuticals, consumer products, and industrial chemicals. For water pollution control and the evaluation of water protection measures, it is crucial to screen for MCs. However, the selection and prioritization of which MCs to screen for is rather difficult and complex. Existing methods usually are strongly limited because of a lack of screening regulations or unavailability of required data.     

Evaluation of the forest growth simulator SILVA on dominant trees in mature mixed Silver fir–Norway spruce stands in South-West Germany

Forest growth simulators go beyond a mere tabulation of empirical measurements by employing biometric models that functionally describe the dependence of forest growth of the initial forest structure, growth conditions and management regime. This makes them very flexible and allows predicting growth reactions for unknown and/or complex forest growth scenarios. When simulation outcomes are to be used in silvicultural strategic planning, the results are of direct and delicate importance, and the correct simulator performance must be ascertained. This is especially so when the considered forest situation differs from the forest data used to parameterise the model (e.g. different geographical region).In this article, the forest growth simulator SILVA (version 2.2) was validated for 55 long-term experimental plots of mature mixed Silver fir–Norway spruce stands in southwest Germany (Picea abies, Abies alba). The evaluation was restricted to the upper canopy trees during the survey period 1989–2004. Following the general evaluation criteria for ecological models from [Vanclay, J.K., Skovsgaard, J.P., 1997. Evaluating forest growth models. Ecol. Mod. 98, 1–12], a specific methodology was developed to evaluate the simulated height and diameter growth on the basis of forest growth principles.The qualitative analysis proved the SILVA growth algorithms to be in accordance with physiologically based standard growth equations. The quantitative evaluation was limited by incomplete knowledge of the site conditions. To overcome this problem, the experimental plots were regarded as a “heterogeneous growth series” which allows analysing the growth behaviour in a more general way. It could be shown that for the given data set, the SILVA simulations produced an overestimation of height growth (median: +61% spruce, +12% fir), and an underestimation of diameter growth and competition sensitivity (median: ?16% spruce, ?70% fir). The errors partially compensated in the volume growth resulting in an overall over-/underestimation of +9% for spruce and ?58% for fir (median).The unbalanced height and diameter growth cannot be compensated by a change in the site conditions because this affects both height and diameter growth either positive or negative. Hence, an adjustment of selected parameterisation values appears to offer the best solution to adapt SILVA to the considered forest situation. This approach of adaptive parameterisation is discussed against a more general background of deductive vs. inductive forest growth modelling.     

Rapid whole exome sequencing in pregnancies to identify the underlying genetic cause in fetuses with congenital anomalies detected by ultrasound imaging

Objective

The purpose of this study was to explore the diagnostic yield and clinical utility of trio-based rapid whole exome sequencing (rWES) in pregnancies of fetuses with a wide range of congenital anomalies detected by ultrasound imaging.

Methods

In this observational study, we analyzed the first 54 cases referred to our laboratory for prenatal rWES to support clinical decision making, after the sonographic detection of fetal congenital anomalies. The most common identified congenital anomalies were skeletal dysplasia (n = 20), multiple major fetal congenital anomalies (n = 17) and intracerebral structural anomalies (n = 7).

Results

A conclusive diagnosis was identified in 18 of the 54 cases (33%). Pathogenic variants were detected most often in fetuses with skeletal dysplasia (n = 11) followed by fetuses with multiple major fetal congenital anomalies (n = 4) and intracerebral structural anomalies (n = 3). A survey, completed by the physicians for 37 of 54 cases, indicated that the rWES results impacted clinical decision making in 68% of cases.

Conclusions

These results suggest that rWES improves prenatal diagnosis of fetuses with congenital anomalies, and has an important impact on prenatal and peripartum parental and clinical decision making.     

Mercury in the Mediterranean. Part 2: processes and mass balance

Mass balance of contaminants can provide useful information on the processes that influence their concentrations in various environmental compartments. The most important sources, sinks and the equilibrium or non-equilibrium state of the contaminant in individual environmental compartments can also be identified. Using the latest mercury speciation data, the results of numerical models and the results of recent studies on mercury transport and transformation processes in the marine environment, we have re-evaluated the total mercury (HgT) mass balance in the Mediterranean Sea. New calculations have been performed employing three distinct marine layers: the surface layer, the thermocline and the deep sea. New transport mechanisms, deep water formation and density-driven sinking and upwelling, were included in the mass balance calculations. The most recent data have even enabled the calculation of an approximate methylmercury (MeHg) mass balance. HgT is well balanced in the entire Mediterranean, and the discrepancies between inputs and outputs in individual layers do not exceed 20 %. The MeHg balance shows larger discrepancies between gains and losses due to measurement uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge of Hg species transformation processes. Nonetheless, the main sources and sinks of HgT (deposition and evasion) and MeHg (fluxes from sediment, outflow through the Gibraltar Strait) are in accordance with previous studies on mercury in the Mediterranean Basin. Mercury in the Mediterranean fish harvest is the second largest MeHg sink; about 300 kg of this toxic substance is consumed annually with sea food.     

Implications of a changing climate on food security and smallholders’ livelihoods in Bogotá, Colombia

Small farmers who supply the city of Bogotá with food are facing many challenges that are jeopardizing their livelihoods and by extension, the food security of Colombia’s capital. We expect future changes in climatic conditions to exacerbate the plight of the small farmers and this is expected to compromise Bogota’s food security even further. This paper specifically seeks to assess the impact of climate change (CC) on the livelihoods of smallholders who supply Bogota with most of its food. In our multidisciplinary methodology, we translated the exposure to CC into direct impact on crops and assessed sensitivity and adaptive capacity using the sustainable rural livelihoods framework. The results show that rainfall (by average of 100 mm) and temperature (by average of 2.1 °C) will increase over the study area, while the future climate suitability of the most important crops such as mango (Mangifera indica), papaya (Carica papaya), corn (Zea mays) and plantain (Musa balbisiana) shows a decrease of 19 % to 47 % climate suitability by the year 2050. The assessment of sensitivity and adaptive capacity demonstrates that farmers participating in a farmers’ market, initiated by several local and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), are less vulnerable to CC than farmers who sell through intermediaries. Those farmers selling directly to consumers in the farmers’ market have a higher adaptive capacity (3 on a scale of 3) in social and financial capital than those selling to intermediaries with less adaptive capacity (1 on a scale of 3). In light of the reduction in overall climatic suitability of some of the major crops and the change of geographic location of suitability for others, there are likely to be serious threats for Bogotá’s food security, the ecological landscape around the city, and farmers’ livelihoods. We further conclude that unless proper adaptation measures are implemented, the geographical shift in climate suitability may also force farmers to shift their crops to higher elevations including remaining forests and páramos (the Colombian alpine tundra ecosystems), which may be threatened in the near future.     

A framework for definition of logical scenarios for safety assurance of automated driving

Abstract

Objective: In order to introduce automated vehicles on public roads, it is necessary to ensure that these vehicles are safe to operate in traffic. One challenge is to prove that all physically possible variations of situations can be handled safely within the operational design domain of the vehicle. A promising approach to handling the set of possible situations is to identify a manageable number of logical scenarios, which provide an abstraction for object properties and behavior within the situations. These can then be transferred into concrete scenarios defining all parameters necessary to reproduce the situation in different test environments.

Methods: This article proposes a framework for defining safety-relevant scenarios based on the potential collision between the subject vehicle and a challenging object, which forces the subject vehicle to depart from its planned course of action to avoid a collision. This allows defining only safety-relevant scenarios, which can directly be related to accident classification. The first criterion for defining a scenario is the area of the subject vehicle with which the object would collide. As a second criterion, 8 different positions around the subject vehicle are considered. To account for other relevant objects in the scenario, factors that influence the challenge for the subject vehicle can be added to the scenario. These are grouped as action constraints, dynamic occlusions, and causal chains.

Results: By applying the proposed systematics, a catalog of base scenarios for a vehicle traveling on controlled-access highways has been generated, which can directly be linked to parameters in accident classification. The catalog serves as a basis for scenario classification within the PEGASUS project.

Conclusions: Defining a limited number of safety-relevant scenarios helps to realize a systematic safety assurance process for automated vehicles. Scenarios are defined based on the point of the potential collision of a challenging object with the subject vehicle and its initial position. This approach allows defining scenarios for different environments and different driving states of the subject vehicle using the same mechanisms. A next step is the generation of logical scenarios for other driving states of the subject vehicle and for other traffic environments.     

Time‐based differences in the effects of positive and negative affectivity on perceived supervisor support and organizational commitment among newcomers

Building on the broaden‐and‐build theory and research on the negativity bias, this study examines how trait affectivity, as a stable predisposition predicting the pattern of emotional responding, shapes newcomers' perceptions of supervisor support and experience of organizational commitment. Using latent growth modeling and data collected at four points in time from newcomers (N = 158), we found the initial level of perceived supervisor support to mediate a negative relationship between negative affectivity and the level of commitment. Moreover, although newcomers experienced a general decrease in perceived supervisor support and a related decrease in commitment, those with high positive affectivity experienced a weaker decrease in perceived supervisor support, which led to a weaker decrease in commitment. Incidentally, positive affectivity was also positively related to the initial level of commitment. Two post hoc studies indicated that positive and negative affectivity exerted their effects controlling for state affect and replicated the relationship between change in perceived support and commitment. We discuss how these findings inform our understanding of trait affectivity's influence on newcomers' work attitudes.     

State-Space Modeling of the Relationship between Air Quality and Mortality

ABSTRACT

A portion of a population is assumed to be at risk, with the mortality hazard varying with atmospheric conditions including total suspended particulates (TSP). This at-risk population is not observed and the hazard function is unknown; we wish to estimate these from mortality count and atmospheric variables. Consideration of population dynamics leads to a state-space representation, allowing the Kalman Filter (KF) to be used for estimation. A harvesting effect is thus implied; high mortality is followed by lower mortality until the population is replenished by new arrivals.

The model is applied to daily data for Philadelphia, PA, 1973-1990. The estimated hazard function rises with the level of TSP and at extremes of temperature and also reflects a positive interaction between TSP and temperature. The estimated at-risk population averages about 480 and varies seasonally. We find that lags of TSP are statistically significant, but the presence of negative coefficients suggests their role may be partially statistical rather than biological. In the population dynamics framework, the natural metric for health damage from air pollution is its impact on life expectancy. The range of hazard rates over the sample period is 0.07 to 0.085, corresponding to life expectancies of 14.3 and 11.8 days, respectively.     

Dissolution and characterization of HEV NiMH batteries

Metal recovery is an essential part of the recycling of hybrid electric vehicle battery waste and the first step in a hydrometallurgical treatment is dissolution of the solid material. The properties of separated battery electrode materials were investigated. Focus was put on both the solid waste and then the dissolution behaviour. The cathode contains metallic nickel that remains undissolved when utilizing non-oxidizing conditions such as hydrochloric or sulphuric acid in combination with a low oxygen atmosphere. In these conditions the cathode active electrode material is fully dissolved. Not dissolving the nickel metal saves up to 37% of the acid consumption for the cathode electrode material. In the commonly used case of oxidizing conditions the nickel metal dissolves and a cobalt-rich phase remains undissolved from the cathode active material. For the anode material a complete and rapid dissolution can be achieved at mild conditions with hydrochloric, nitric or sulphuric acid. Optimal parameters for all cases of dissolution was pH 1 with a reaction time of approximately ?20,000 s.