Demonstrating Attainment of the Air Quality Standards: Integration of Observations and Model Predictions into the Probabilistic Framework

ABSTRACT

This paper introduces an integrated observational-modeling approach to transform the deterministic nature of attainment demonstrations of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) into the probabilistic framework. While the methods presented here can be used to address any air quality standard that is based on extreme values, this paper focuses on the application to the 1-hr and 8-hr NAAQS for ozone. Extreme value statistics and resampling techniques are applied to estimate the probability of exceeding the NAAQS for both 1-hr and 8-hr ozone concentrations. Within the integrated observation-modeling analysis approach, we show that the model-to-model differences in the predicted responses to emission reductions are smaller than the model-to-model differences in predicted absolute ozone concentrations. We illustrate that the emission reductions stemming from a real-world emission control strategy would substantially reduce the probability of exceeding the NAAQS over a large portion of the eastern United States, especially for the 8-hr average ozone concentrations.     

An Assessment of the Emissions Inventory Processing Systems EMS-2001 and SMOKE in Grid-Based Air Quality Models

Abstract

In the United States, emission processing models such as Emissions Modeling System-2001 (EMS-2001), Emissions Preprocessor System-Version 2.5 (EPS2.5), and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model are currently being used to generate gridded, hourly, speciated emission inputs for urban and regional-scale photochemical models from aggregated pollutant inventories. In this study, two models, EMS-2001 and SMOKE, were applied with their default internal data sets to process a common inventory database for a high ozone (O₃) episode over the eastern United States using the Carbon Bond IV (CB4) chemical speciation mechanism. A comparison of the emissions processed by these systems shows differences in all three of the major processing steps performed by the two models (i.e., in temporal allocation, spatial allocation, and chemical speciation). Results from a simulation with a photochemical model using these two sets of emissions indicate differences on the order of ±20 ppb in the predicted 1-hr daily maximum O₃ concentrations. It is therefore critical to develop and implement more common and synchronized temporal, spatial, and speciation cross-reference systems such that the processes within each emissions model converge toward reasonably similar results. This would also help to increase confidence in the validity of photochemical grid model results by reducing one aspect of modeling uncertainty.     

Application and Evaluation of Two Air Quality Models for Particulate Matter for a Southeastern U.S. Episode

Abstract

The Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System and the Particulate Matter Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (PMCAMx) were applied to simulate the period June 29–July 10, 1999, of the Southern Oxidants Study episode with two nested horizontal grid sizes: a coarse resolution of 32 km and a fine resolution of 8 km. The predicted spatial variations of ozone (O₃), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM_2.5), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 10 μm (PM₁₀) by both models are similar in rural areas but differ from one another significantly over some urban/suburban areas in the eastern and southern United States, where PMCAMx tends to predict higher values of O₃ and PM than CMAQ. Both models tend to predict O₃ values that are higher than those observed. For observed O₃ values above 60 ppb, O₃ performance meets the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's criteria for CMAQ with both grids and for PMCAMx with the fine grid only. It becomes unsatisfactory for PMCAMx and marginally satisfactory for CMAQ for observed O₃ values above 40 ppb.

Both models predict similar amounts of sulfate (SO₄ ^2?) and organic matter, and both predict SO₄ ^2? to be the largest contributor to PM_2.5. PMCAMx generally predicts higher amounts of ammonium (NH₄ ⁺), nitrate (NO₃ ^?), and black carbon (BC) than does CMAQ. PM performance for CMAQ is generally consistent with that of other PM models, whereas PMCAMx predicts higher concentrations of NO₃ ^?,NH₄ ⁺, and BC than observed, which degrades its performance. For PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 predictions over the southeastern U.S. domain, the ranges of mean normalized gross errors (MNGEs) and mean normalized bias are 37–43% and –33–4% for CMAQ and 50–59% and 7–30% for PMCAMx. Both models predict the largest MNGEs for NO₃ ^? (98–104% for CMAQ, 138–338% for PMCAMx). The inaccurate NO₃ ^? predictions by both models may be caused by the inaccuracies in the ammonia emission inventory and the uncertainties in the gas/particle partitioning under some conditions. In addition to these uncertainties, the significant PM overpredictions by PMCAMx may be attributed to the lack of wet removal for PM and a likely underprediction in the vertical mixing during the daytime.     

Modeling Atmospheric Mercury Deposition in the Vicinity of Power Plants

Abstract

Two mathematical models of the atmospheric fate and transport of mercury (Hg), an Eulerian grid–based model and a Gaussian plume model, are used to calculate the atmospheric deposition of Hg in the vicinity (i.e., within 50 km) of five coal–fired power plants. The former is applied using two different horizontal resolutions: coarse (84 km) and fine (16.7 km). More than 96% of the power plant Hg emissions are calculated with the plume model to be transported beyond 50 km from the plants. The grid–based model predicts a lower fraction to be transported beyond 50 km: >91% with a coarse resolution and >95% with a fine resolution. The contribution of the power plant emissions to total Hg deposition within a radius of 50 km from the plants is calculated to be <8% with the plume model, <14% with the Eulerian model with a coarse resolution, and <10% with the Eulerian model with a fine resolution. The Eulerian grid–based model predicts greater local impacts than the plume model because of artificially enhanced vertical dispersion; the former predicts about twice as much Hg deposition as the latter when the area considered is commensurate with the resolution of the grid–based model. If one compares the local impacts for an area that is significantly less than the grid–based model resolution, then the grid–based model may predict lower local deposition than the plume model, because two compensating errors affect the results obtained with the grid–based model: initial dilution of the power plant emissions within one or more grid cells and enhanced vertical mixing to the ground.     

Uptake of 14C-atropine and/or its transformation products from soil by wheat (Triticum aestivum var Kronjet) and their translocation to shoots

Plant uptake of toxins and their translocation to edible plant parts are important processes in the transfer of contaminants into the food chain. Atropine, a highly toxic muscarine receptor antagonist produced by Solanacea species, is found in all plant tissues and can enter the soil and hence be available for uptake by crops. The absorption of atropine and/or its transformation products from soil by wheat (Triticum aestivum var Kronjet) and its distribution to shoots was investigated by growing wheat in soil spiked with unlabeled or ¹⁴C-labeled atropine. Radioactivity attributable to ¹⁴C-atropine and its transformation products was measurable in plants sampled at 15 d after sowing (DAS) and thereafter until the end of experiment. The highest accumulation of ¹⁴C-atropine and/or its transformation products by plants was detected in leaves (between 73 and 90% of the total accumulated) with lower amounts in stems, roots, and seeds (approximately 14%, 9%, and 3%, respectively). ¹⁴C-Atropine and/or its transformation products were detected in soil leachate at 30, 60, and 90 DAS and were strongly adsorbed to soil, with 60% of the applied dose adsorbed at 30 DAS, plateauing at 70% from 60 DAS. Unlabeled atropine was detected in shoots 30 DAS at a concentration of 3.9 ± 0.1 μg kg^?1 (mean ± SD). The observed bioconcentration factor was 2.3 ± 0.04. The results suggest a potential risk of atropine toxicity to consumers.     

A correlation between the fate and non-extractable residue formation of 14C-metalaxyl and enzymatic activities in soil

Extracellular, oxidative soil enzymes like monophenol oxidases and peroxidases play an important role in transformation of xenobiotics and the formation of organic matter in soil. Additionally, these enzymes may be involved in the formation of non-extractable residues (NERs) of xenobiotics during humification processes. To examine this correlation, the fate of the fungicide ¹⁴C metalaxyl in soil samples from Ultuna (Sweden) was studied. Using different soil sterilization techniques, it was possible to differentiate between free, immobilized, and abiotic (“pseudoenzyme”-like) oxidative activities. A correlation between the formation of metalaxyl NER and soil organic matter content, biotic activities, as well as extracellular phenoloxidase and peroxidase activities in the bulk soil and its particle size fractions was determined. Extracellular soil-bound enzymes were involved in NER formation (up to 8% of applied radioactivity after 92 days) of the fungicide independently from the presence of living microbes and different distributions of the NER in the soil humic subfractions.     

Ozone Formation in California's San Joaquin Valley: A Critical Assessment of Modeling and Data Needs

ABSTRACT

Data from the 1990 San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study/ Atmospheric Utility Signatures, Predictions, and Experiments (SJVAQS/AUSPEX) field program in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) suggest that both urban and rural areas would have difficulty meeting an 8-hr average O₃ standard of 80 ppb. A conceptual model of O₃ formation and accumulation in the SJV is formulated based on the chemical, meteorological, and tracer data from SJVAQS/ AUSPEX. Two major phenomena appear to lead to high O₃ concentrations in the SJV: (1) transport of O₃ and precursors from upwind areas (primarily the San Francisco Bay Area, but also the Sacramento Valley) into the SJV, affecting the northern part of the valley, and (2) emissions of precursors, mixing, transport (including long-range transport), and atmospheric reactions within the SJV responsible for regional and urban-scale (e.g., downwind of Fresno and Bakersfield) distributions of O₃. Using this conceptual model, we then conduct a critical evaluation of the meteorological model and air quality model. Areas of model improvements and data needed to understand and properly simulate O₃ formation in the SJV are highlighted.     

Growth and DNA damage in young Laminaria sporophytes exposed to ultraviolet radiation: implication for depth zonation of kelps on Helgoland (North Sea)

Growth as an integrative parameter of all physiological processes was measured in young sporophytes of temperate Laminaria digitata, Laminaria saccharina and Laminaria hyperborea exposed in the laboratory to irradiance consisting of either only photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) or to a spectrum including ultraviolet radiation (UVR) (PAR+UVA+UVB) by use of cut-off glass filters. Size increment was measured every 10 min over a period of 18–21 days using growth chambers with on-line video measuring technique. In the chamber, plants were grown at 10±2°C and 16:8 h light–dark cycles with 6 h additional UVR exposure in the middle of the light period. Tissue morphology and absorption spectra were measured in untreated young sporophytes while chlorophyll a content and DNA damage were measured in treated thalli at the end of the experiment. Sensitivity of growth under UVR was found to be related to the observed upper depth distribution limit of the upper sublittoral L. digitata, upper to mid sublittoral L. saccharina and lower sublittoral L. hyperborea. Tissue DNA damage is, however, dependent on thallus thickness which minimizes UVR effect where outer cell layers shade inner cells and provide longer pathlength for UVR. Exposure to UVR causes cellular, enzymatic and molecular damage. Presence of UV-absorbing compounds further reduces effective UVR from reaching physiological targets. The cost of producing higher amount of UV-absorbing compounds and effective DNA repair mechanism can, however, divert photosynthate at the expense of growth. Tissue chlorophyll a content was not significantly different between treatments suggesting a capacity for acclimation to moderate UVR fluence. Growth acclimation to repeated UVR exposure was observed within a period of 12 days while growth inhibition was observed after a longer UVR exposure period of 21 days. The results give further insight into the effects of UVR on the cellular level and show how ecological parameters such as the upper depth distribution limit are dependent on cellular processes.     

Integrated methodology for assessing the HCH groundwater pollution at the multi-source contaminated mega-site Bitterfeld/Wolfen

A large-scale groundwater contamination characterises the Pleistocene groundwater system of the former industrial and abandoned mining region Bitterfeld/Wolfen, Eastern Germany. For more than a century, local chemical production and extensive lignite mining caused a complex contaminant release from local production areas and related dump sites. Today, organic pollutants (mainly organochlorines) are present in all compartments of the environment at high concentration levels. An integrated methodology for characterising the current situation of pollution as well as the future fate development of hazardous substances is highly required to decide on further management and remediation strategies. Data analyses have been performed on regional groundwater monitoring data from about 10 years, containing approximately 3,500 samples, and up to 180 individual organic parameters from almost 250 observation wells. Run-off measurements as well as water samples were taken biweekly from local creeks during a period of 18 months. A kriging interpolation procedure was applied on groundwater analytics to generate continuous distribution patterns of the nodal contaminant samples. High-resolution geological 3-D modelling serves as a database for a regional 3-D groundwater flow model. Simulation results support the future fate assessment of contaminants. A first conceptual model of the contamination has been developed to characterise the contamination in regional surface waters and groundwater. A reliable explanation of the variant hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) occurrence within the two local aquifer systems has been derived from the regionalised distribution patterns. Simulation results from groundwater flow modelling provide a better understanding of the future pollutant migration paths and support the overall site characterisation. The presented case study indicates that an integrated assessment of large-scale groundwater contaminations often needs more data than only from local groundwater monitoring. The developed methodology is appropriate to assess POP-contaminated mega-sites including, e.g. HCH deposits. Although HCH isomers are relevant groundwater pollutants at this site, further organochlorine pollutants are present at considerably higher levels. The study demonstrates that an effective evaluation of the current situation of contamination as well as of the related future fate development requires detailed information of the entire observed system.