Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The role of canopy structural complexity in wood net primary production of a maturing northern deciduous forest

The even-aged northern hardwood forests of the Upper Great Lakes Region are undergoing an ecological transition during which structural and biotic complexity is increasing. Early-successional aspen (Populus spp.) and birch (Betula papyrifera) are senescing at an accelerating rate and are being replaced by middle-successional species including northern red oak (Quercus rubra), red maple (Acer rubrum), and white pine (Pinus strobus). Canopy structural complexity may increase due to forest age, canopy disturbances, and changing species diversity. More structurally complex canopies may enhance carbon (C) sequestration in old forests. We hypothesize that these biotic and structural alterations will result in increased structural complexity of the maturing canopy with implications for forest C uptake. At the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS), we combined a decade of observations of net primary productivity (NPP), leaf area index (LAI), site index, canopy tree-species diversity, and stand age with canopy structure measurements made with portable canopy lidar (PCL) in 30 forested plots. We then evaluated the relative impact of stand characteristics on productivity through succession using data collected over a nine-year period. We found that effects of canopy structural complexity on wood NPP (NPPw) were similar in magnitude to the effects of total leaf area and site quality. Furthermore, our results suggest that the effect of stand age on NPPw is mediated primarily through its effect on canopy structural complexity. Stand-level diversity of canopy-tree species was not significantly related to either canopy structure or NPPw. We conclude that increasing canopy structural complexity provides a mechanism for the potential maintenance of productivity in aging forests.     

Wood burning impact on PM10 in three Austrian regions

Anhydrosugars (levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan) were investigated during one year in three Austrian regions at three types of sites (city-heavy traffic-impacted, city-residential and background) in order to assess the magnitude of the contribution of wood smoke to the particulate matter load and its organic fraction. The annually averaged concentrations of levoglucosan ranged from 0.12 to 0.48 μg m^?3. The levoglucosan concentration exhibited a strong annual cycle with higher concentrations in the cold season. The minor anhydrosugars had a similar annual trend, but their concentrations were lower by a factor of about 5 and about 25 in the cold season for mannosan and galactosan, respectively. Levoglucosan concentrations were higher at the inner-urban as compared to rural sites. The contribution of wood smoke to organic carbon and PM₁₀ levels was calculated using a constant ratio of levoglucosan and OC, respectively PM₁₀ as derived for fire wood typical for Alpine European regions [Schmidl, C., Marr, I.L., Caseiro, A.e, Kotianová, P., Berner, A., Bauer, H., Kasper-Giebl, A., Puxbaum, H., 2008a. Chemical characterisation of fine particle emissions from wood stove combustion of common woods growing in mid-European Alpine regions. Atmospheric Environment 42, 126–141]. The estimated contribution of wood smoke-OC to the OC of PM₁₀ ranged from one third to more than half in the cold season with higher contributions up to 70% in winter (December, January and February) in the smaller cities and the rural background. This indicates, that wood smoke is the predominant source of organic material at rural and small urban sites in central Europe. Consistently, wood smoke was an important contributor to PM₁₀ during the cold season, with contributions of around 10% in the Vienna larger region and around 20% at rural sites in the densely forested regions of Salzburg and Styria during the winter months. In those regions residential sites exhibited highest relative wood smoke contents in PM₁₀ during autumn (September till November), indicating the use of wood stoves for auxiliary heating in the transition of warm to cold season. Using the relationships between the different anhydrosugars the combustion of softwood was found to be dominant for the wood smoke occurrence in ambient air at the investigated sites. Potassium, a commonly used tracer for biomass burning, correlated well to levoglucosan, with a mass ratio of around 0.80 in the cold season.     

Die Lösung von Nutzungskonflikten aufgrund flächenhafter Bodenkontaminationen mit Hilfe Geografischer Informationssysteme und Mitteln der Geostatistik

Goal and Scope

By means of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and other geostatistical methods, the extensive heterogeneous data materials of large area soil contaminations are re-evaluated to eliminate exploitation conflicts and investment obstacles.

Methods

The mapping of relevant frame criteria generates the basis to solve the conflicts, such as types of exploitation of field areas, development plans, protected areas, flooded areas, etc. as well as their geo-referencing in the Geographical Information System. The critical examination of data age and quality as well as the geostatistical evaluation by means of semivariogram analysis and Kriging technique are essential prerequisites for the determination of areas related to utility and exceeding test values.

Results and Conclusions

As a result, one can modify the hazardous situation and can provide recommendations for an optimal elimination of hazards, mostly in the framework of scheduled measures in terms of town planning.

Outlook

On the basis of the results obtained, further exploitation or monitoring work can clearly be optimized.     

The progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science

Interdisciplinarity is needed to gain knowledge of the ecology of invasive species and invaded ecosystems, and of the human dimensions of biological invasions. We combine a quantitative literature review with a qualitative historical narrative to document the progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science since 1950. Our review shows that 92.4% of interdisciplinary publications (out of 9192) focus on ecological questions, 4.4% on social ones, and 3.2% on social–ecological ones. The emergence of invasion science out of ecology might explain why interdisciplinarity has remained mostly within the natural sciences. Nevertheless, invasion science is attracting social–ecological collaborations to understand ecological challenges, and to develop novel approaches to address new ideas, concepts, and invasion-related questions between scholars and stakeholders. We discuss ways to reframe invasion science as a field centred on interlinked social–ecological dynamics to bring science, governance and society together in a common effort to deal with invasions.     

Triangulation based inclusion probabilities: a design-unbiased sampling approach

A probabilistic sampling approach for design-unbiased estimation of area-related quantitative characteristics of spatially dispersed population units is proposed. The developed field protocol includes a fixed number of 3 units per sampling location and is based on partial triangulations over their natural neighbors to derive the individual inclusion probabilities. The performance of the proposed design is tested in comparison to fixed area sample plots in a simulation with two forest stands. Evaluation is based on a general approach for areal sampling in which all characteristics of the resulting population of possible samples is derived analytically by means of a complete tessellation of the areal sampling frame. The example simulation shows promising results. Expected errors under this design are comparable to sample plots including a much greater number of trees per plot.     

Characterisation of PM10 emissions from woodstove combustion of common woods grown in Portugal

A series of source tests was performed to evaluate the chemical composition of particle emissions from the woodstove combustion of four prevalent Portuguese species of woods: Pinus pinaster (maritime pine), Eucalyptus globulus (eucalyptus), Quercus suber (cork oak) and Acacia longifolia (golden wattle). Analyses included water-soluble ions, metals, radionuclides, organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC), humic-like substances (HULIS), cellulose and approximately l80 organic compounds. Particle (PM₁₀) emission factors from eucalyptus and oak were higher than those from pine and acacia. The carbonaceous matter represented 44–63% of the particulate mass emitted during the combustion process, regardless of species burned. The major organic components of smoke particles, for all the wood species studied, with the exception of the golden wattle (0.07–1.9% w/w), were anhydrosugars (0.2–17% w/w). Conflicting with what was expected, only small amounts of cellulose were found in wood smoke. As for HULIS, average particle mass concentrations ranged from 1.5% to 3.0%. The golden wattle wood smoke presented much higher concentrations of ions and metal species than the emissions from the other wood types. The results of the analysis of radionuclides revealed that the ²²⁶Ra was the naturally occurring radionuclide more enriched in PM₁₀. The chromatographically resolved organics included n-alkanes, n-alkenes, PAH, oxygenated PAH, n-alkanals, ketones, n-alkanols, terpenoids, triterpenoids, phenolic compounds, phytosterols, alcohols, n-alkanoic acids, n-di-acids, unsaturated acids and alkyl ester acids.