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Nikolaos Kazantzis Vasiliki Kazantzi Emmanuel G. Christodoulou 《Environmental science and pollution research international》2014,21(16):9553-9568
A new approach to the problem of environmental hazard assessment and monitoring for pollutant biodegradation reaction systems in the presence of uncertainty is proposed using soft sensor-based pollutant concentration dynamic profile reconstruction techniques. In particular, a robust reduced-order soft sensor is proposed that can be digitally implemented in the presence of inherent complexity and the inevitable model uncertainty. The proposed method explicitly incorporates all the available information associated with a process model characterized by varying degrees of uncertainty, as well as available sensor measurements of certain physicochemical quantities. Based on the above information, a reduced-order soft sensor is designed enabling the reliable reconstruction of pollutant concentration profiles in complex biodegradation systems that can not be always achieved due to physical and/or technical limitations associated with current sensor technology. The option of using the aforementioned approach to compute toxic load and persistence indexes on the basis of the reconstructed concentration profiles is also pursued. Finally, the performance of the proposed method is evaluated in two illustrative environmental hazard assessment case studies. 相似文献
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Doug P. Armstrong Elizabeth H. Parlato Barbara Egli Wendy J. Dimond Renske Kwikkel Åsa Berggren Mhairi McCready Kevin A. Parker John G. Ewen 《Conservation biology》2021,35(3):859-869
Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically Ne/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. 相似文献
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Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves 下载免费PDF全文
The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port. 相似文献
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STEPHANIE S. COSTER JESSICA S. VEYSEY POWELL KIMBERLY J. BABBITT 《Conservation biology》2014,28(3):756-762
Habitat linkages can help maintain connectivity of animal populations in developed landscapes. However, the lack of empirical data on the width of lateral movements (i.e., the zigzagging of individuals as they move from one point to point another) makes determining the width of such linkages challenging. We used radiotracking data from wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) in a managed forest in Maine (U.S.A.) to characterize movement patterns of populations and thus inform planning for the width of wildlife corridors. For each individual, we calculated the polar coordinates of all locations, estimated the vector sum of the polar coordinates, and measured the distance from each location to the vector sum. By fitting a Gaussian distribution over a histogram of these distances, we created a population‐level probability density function and estimated the 50th and 95th percentiles to determine the width of lateral movement as individuals progressed from the pond to upland habitat. For spotted salamanders 50% of lateral movements were ≤13 m wide and 95% of movements were ≤39 m wide. For wood frogs, 50% of lateral movements were ≤17 m wide and 95% of movements were ≤ 51 m wide. For both species, those individuals that traveled the farthest from the pond also displayed the greatest lateral movement. Our results serve as a foundation for spatially explicit conservation planning for pond‐breeding amphibians in areas undergoing development. Our technique can also be applied to movement data from other taxa to aid in designing habitat linkages. Caracterización de la Amplitud de Movimiento de Anfibios durante la Migración Pos‐Reproducción 相似文献
779.
N. G. Shams El-Din L. I. Mohamedein Kh. M. El-Moselhy 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2014,186(9):5865-5881
Concentrations of Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Ni, Co, Fe, Mn, and Hg were measured successively in water, sediments, and six macroalgal species belonging to three algal classes during 3 years (2008–2010) from Abu Qir Bay, Alexandria, Egypt: Chlorophyceae (Enteromorpha compressa, Ulva fasciata), Phaeophyceae (Padina boryana), and Rhodophyceae (Jania rubens, Hypnea musciformis, Pterocladia capillacea). The study aimed to assess the bioaccumulation potential of the seaweeds, as well as to evaluate the extent of heavy metal contamination in the selected study site. Metals were analyzed using atomic absorption spectrophotometry coupled with MH-10 hydride system. The obtained data showed that the highest mean concentrations of Cu, Zn, Fe, and Mn were recorded in E. compressa; Cd, Ni, and Hg exhibited their highest mean concentrations in P. boryana, while Pb and Co were found in J. rubens. Abundance of the heavy metals in the algal species was as follow: Fe?>?Mn?>?Zn?>?Pb?>?Ni?>?Co?>?Cu?>?Cd?>?Hg. E. compressa showed the maximum metal pollution index (MPI) which was 11.55. Bioconcentration factor (BCF) for the metals in algae was relatively high with a maximum value for Mn. The Tomlinson pollution load index (PLI) values for the recorded algal species were low, which ranged between 1.00 in P. boryana and 2.72 in E. compressa. Enrichment factors for sediments were low fluctuating between 0.43 for Hg to 2.33 for Mn. Accordingly, the green alga E. compressa, brown alga P. boryana, and red alga J. rubens can be nominated as bioindicators. Based on MPI and PLI indices, Abu Qir Bay in the present study is considered as low-contaminated area. 相似文献
780.
Electrocution on overhead power structures negatively affects avian populations in diverse ecosystems worldwide, contributes to the endangerment of raptor populations in Europe and Africa, and is a major driver of legal action against electric utilities in North America. We investigated factors associated with avian electrocutions so poles that are likely to electrocute a bird can be identified and retrofitted prior to causing avian mortality. We used historical data from southern California to identify patterns of avian electrocution by voltage, month, and year to identify species most often killed by electrocution in our study area and to develop a predictive model that compared poles where an avian electrocution was known to have occurred (electrocution poles) with poles where no known electrocution occurred (comparison poles). We chose variables that could be quantified by personnel with little training in ornithology or electric systems. Electrocutions were more common at distribution voltages (≤33 kV) and during breeding seasons and were more commonly reported after a retrofitting program began. Red‐tailed Hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) (n = 265) and American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) (n = 258) were the most commonly electrocuted species. In the predictive model, 4 of 14 candidate variables were required to distinguish electrocution poles from comparison poles: number of jumpers (short wires connecting energized equipment), number of primary conductors, presence of grounding, and presence of unforested unpaved areas as the dominant nearby land cover. When tested against a sample of poles not used to build the model, our model distributed poles relatively normally across electrocution‐risk values and identified the average risk as higher for electrocution poles relative to comparison poles. Our model can be used to reduce avian electrocutions through proactive identification and targeting of high‐risk poles for retrofitting. Modelo Predictivo del Riesgo de Electrocución de Aves en Líneas Eléctricas Elevadas 相似文献