Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions Scenarios: Sensitivity to Social and Technological Factors in Three Regions

Carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2100 AD are decomposed into the product of four factors: population size, affluence (measured here as GDP per capita), energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit energy). These emissions factors are further subdivided into three regions: more developed countries (MDCs), China, and the remaining less developed countries (LDCs). Departures from a baseline scenario (based on IPCC, 1992a — the so-called ‘business-as-usual’ scenario) are calculated for a variety of alternative assumptions concerning the four emissions factors in the three regions. Although the IPCC scenario is called a ‘non-intervention’ scenario, it is shown, for example, that large decreases in energy intensity in China or carbon intensity in MDCs are built into the ‘business as usual’ case — and such large changes vary considerably from region to region. We show what CO₂ emissions would look like if each of these four emissions factors projected in the baseline case somehow remained constant at 1990 levels. Certain factors like energy intensity improvements and long-term population growth in LDCs, or GDP growth and carbon intensity improvements in MDCs, are shown to have a big contribution to cumulative global emissions to 2100 AD, and consequently, changes in these projected factors will lead to significant deviations from baseline emissions. None of the scenarios examined in this analysis seems to indicate that any one global factor is clearly dominant, but cultural, economic, and political costs or opportunities of altering each factor may differ greatly from country to country.     

Can photoperiod manipulation affect gonad development of a boreo-arctic echinoid (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis) following exposure in the wild after the autumnal equinox?

A laboratory experiment was conducted in the winter of 2003–2004 to assess the effect of varying photoperiod regime on consumption rate, assimilation rate, absorption efficiency, and gonad development of the green sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis. Adult individuals were collected from the wild after they had been exposed to the ambient autumn photoperiod cue (which is the extraneous trigger thought to elicit gametogenesis in this species) and placed at ambient temperature for 12 weeks under five different photoperiod regimes: (1) 24 h light:0 h dark=“0D”, (2) 16 h light:8 h dark=“8D”, (3) 8 h light:16 h dark=“16D”, (4) 0 h light:24 h dark=“24D”, and (5) ambient photoperiod (range: 10.50–15.25 h dark). Urchins in these five treatments were fed ad libitum with bull kelp, Nereocystis luetkeana. A sixth treatment consisted of starved individuals held under 0D conditions. Various gonad factors including gonad index, percent gonad water, gonad colour (CIE lightness or L*, CIE hue or a*, and CIE chroma or b*), percent area occupation of the gonad by various cell types (nutritive phagocytes, spermatozoa, and secondary oocytes/ova), and stage of development were assessed at the beginning of the experiment and at weeks 4, 8, and 12 of the study. Consumption and assimilation rates were assessed at weeks 4 and 12 and absorption efficiency at week 12 of the experiment. Urchins were predominantly in the growing and premature stages at the beginning of the experiment, but by week 4 at least 20% of individuals in all treatments receiving food were classified as mature. Spawning occurred during all these treatments between weeks 4 and 8, as evidenced by significant decreases in spermatozoa and secondary oocytes/ova and a significant decrease in percent gonad water, but was not accompanied by major declines in gonad indices. Greater than 90% of individuals in all five of the fed treatments were in the recovering and growing stages at the end of the experiment. The 16D treatment had by far the greatest percentage of urchins in the growing stage. In contrast, individuals that were starved were predominantly in the mature stage at weeks 4, 8, and 12, with only ~30% reaching the spawning stage by the end of the experiment. Photoperiod significantly affected gonad indices at the termination of the experiment with gonad index being the highest in the 16D treatment; this was significantly greater than in the 8D and ambient treatments. Photoperiod did not significantly affect gonad percent water, gonad lightness, or gonad hue. Gonad chroma was significantly affected by photoperiod, urchins held under ambient conditions having significantly lower b* readings than individuals in any other treatment. Photoperiod had little or no affect on consumption rate, assimilation rate, or absorption efficiency. Thus, differences among treatments in regards to gonad index, gonad chroma, and stage of development cannot be attributed to variations in feeding, absorption, or assimilation. The results of this experiment indicate that once gametogenesis is initiated, photoperiod manipulation cannot prevent ultimate spawning. However, photoperiod regime can affect the rate at which urchins move through the various stages of the gametogenic cycle. Urchins placed on short days under artificial lighting (16D) moved through the spawning stage into recovering and growing stages the fastest. This photoperiod regime also produced the highest gonad index at the end of the experiment. Since the commercial urchin market prefers large gonads in the growing and premature stages (i.e. before the mature stage is reached and gonads start leaking sperm and eggs), short day-lengths under artificial lighting (16D) appear to be the best photoperiod conditions for optimizing marketability.     

Lack of detectable nepotism in multiple-queen colonies of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Multiple-queen (polygyne) colonies of the introduced fire ant Solenopsis invicta present a paradox for kin selection theory. Egg-laying queens within these societies are, on average, unrelated to one another, and the numbers of queens per colony are high, so that workers appear to raise new sexuals that are no more closely related to them than are random individuals in the population. This paradox could be resolved if workers discriminate between related and unrelated nestmate sexuals in important fitness-related contexts. This study examines the possibility of such nepotism using methods that combine the following features: (1) multiple relevant behavioral assays, (2) colonies with an unmanipulated family structure, (3) multiple genetic markers with no known phenotypic effects, and (4) a statistical technique for distinguishing between nepotism and potentially confounding phenomena. We estimated relatedness between interactants in polygyne S. invicta colonies in two situations, workers tending egg-laying queens and workers feeding maturing winged queens. In neither case did we detect a significant positive value of relatedness that would implicate nepotism. We argue that the non-nepotistic strategies displayed by these ants reflect historical selection pressures experienced by native populations, in which nestmate queens are highly related to one another. The markedly different genetic structure in native populations may favor the operation of stronger higher-level selection that effectively opposes weaker individual-level selection for nepotistic interactions within nests. Received: 28 June 1996 / Accepted after revision: 6 October 1996     

Synthesis and health-based evaluation of ambient air monitoring data for the Marcellus Shale region

In recent years, there has been a marked increase in the amount of ambient air quality data collected near Marcellus Shale oil and gas development (OGD) sites. We integrated air measurement data from over 30 datasets totaling approximately 200 sampling locations nearby to Marcellus Shale development sites, focusing on 11 air pollutants that can be associated with OGD operations: fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), acetaldehyde, benzene, ethylbenzene, formaldehyde, n-hexane, toluene, xylenes, and hydrogen sulfide (H₂S). We evaluated these data to determine whether there is evidence of community-level air quality impacts of potential health concern, making screening-level comparisons of air monitoring data with acute and chronic health-based air comparison values (HBACVs). Based on the available air monitoring data, we found that only a small fraction of measurements exceeded HBACVs, which is similar to findings from integrative air quality assessments for other shale gas plays. Therefore, the data indicate that air pollutant levels within the Marcellus Shale development region typically are below HBACV exceedance levels; however, the sporadic HBACV exceedances warrant further investigation to determine whether they may be related to specific site characteristics, or certain operations or sources. Like any air monitoring dataset, there is uncertainty as to how well the available Marcellus Shale air monitoring data characterize the range of potential exposures for people living nearby to OGD sites. Given the lesser amounts of air monitoring data available for locations within 1,000 feet of OGD sites as compared to locations between 0.2 and 1 miles, the presence of potential concentration hotspots cannot be ruled out. Additional air monitoring data, in particular more real-time data to further characterize short-term peak concentrations associated with episodic events, are needed to provide for more refined assessments of potential health risks from Marcellus Shale development.

Implications: While there is now a sizable amount of ambient air monitoring data collected nearby to OGD activities in the Marcellus Shale region, these data are currently scattered among different databases and studies. As part of an integrative assessment of Marcellus Shale air quality impacts, ambient air data are compiled for a subset of criteria air pollutants and hazardous air pollutants that have been associated with OGD activities, and compared to acute and chronic health-based air comparison values to help assess the air-related public health impacts of Marcellus Shale development.     

Rejection of emerging organic micropollutants in nanofiltration-reverse osmosis membrane applications.

The rejection of emerging trace organics by a variety of commercial reverse osmosis (RO), nanofiltration (NF), and ultra-low-pressure RO (ULPRO) membranes was investigated using TFC-HR, NF-90, NF-200, TFC-SR2, and XLE spiral membrane elements (Koch Membrane Systems, Wilmington, Massachusetts) to simulate operational conditions for drinking-water treatment and wastewater reclamation. In general, the presence of effluent organic matter (EfOM) improved the rejection of ionic organics by tight NF and RO membranes, as compared to a type-II water matrix (adjusted by ionic strength and hardness), likely as a result of a decreased negatively charged membrane surface. Rejection of ionic pharmaceutical residues and pesticides exceeded 95% by NF-90, XLE, and TFC-HR membranes and was above 89% for the NF-200 membrane. Hydrophobic nonionic compounds, such as bromoform and chloroform, exhibited a high initial rejection, as a result of both hydrophobic-hydrophobic solute-membrane interactions and steric exclusion, but rejection decreased significantly after 10 hours of operation because of partitioning of solutes through the membranes. This resulted in a partial removal of disinfection byproducts by the RO membrane TFC-HR. In a type-II water matrix, the effect of increasing feed water recoveries on rejection of hydrophilic ionic and nonionic compounds was compound-dependent and not consistent for different membranes. The presence of EfOM, however, could neutralize the effect of hydrodynamic operating condition on rejection performance. The ULPRO and tight NF membranes were operated at lower feed pressure, as compared to the TFC-HR, and provided a product water quality similar to a conventional RO membrane, regarding trace organics of interest.     

Reef development at Inhaca Island,Mozambique: coral communities and impacts of the 1999/2000 Southern African floods

Inhaca Island, southern Mozambique, is located towards the southerly latitudinal limits of coral reef growth. Reef development is restricted to the margins of channels which dissect intertidal flats on the Maputo Bay side of the island, and to depths of around 6 m. In contrast to lower latitude reefs, reef development is therefore both spatially and bathymetrically restricted (largely due to high turbidity levels). These natural stress levels were exacerbated, via increased freshwater and sediment discharge, during the severe floods of late 1999/early 2000. Flood impacts varied but were most significant on reefs on the inner (western) side of the island where live coral cover (LCC) decreased from 60.5% (1999) to 24.0% (2001). This is attributed to freshwater-induced bleaching. Dead in situ coral cover increased from 18.6% (1999) to 51.3% (2001). Reefs on the southern tip of the island, by contrast, were relatively unaffected. It is suggested that this largely reflects a closer proximity to the open Indian Ocean which mitigated the effects of freshwater dilution.     

Quantification of variability and uncertainty in air pollutant emission inventories: method and case study for utility NOx emissions

The quality of stationary source emission factors is typically described using data quality ratings, which provide no quantification of the precision of the emission factor for an average source, nor of the variability from one source to another within a category. Variability refers to actual differences caused by differences in feedstock composition, design, maintenance, and operation. Uncertainty refers to lack of knowledge regarding the true emissions. A general methodology for the quantification of variability and uncertainty in emission factors, activity factors, and emission inventories (EIs) is described, featuring the use of bootstrap simulation and related techniques. The methodology is demonstrated via a case study for a selected example of NOx emissions from coal-fired power plants. A prototype software tool was developed to implement the methodology. The range of interunit variability in selected activity and emission factors was shown to be as much as a factor of 4, and the range of uncertainty in mean emissions is shown to depend on the interunit variability and sample size. The uncertainty in the total inventory of -16 to +19% was attributed primarily to one technology group, suggesting priorities for collecting data and improving the inventory. The implications for decision-making are discussed.     

Environmental effects on the distribution of corallimorpharians in Tanzania

This study examined the distribution and abundance of corallimorpharians (Cnidaria, Anthozoa) in Tanzania in relation to different aspects of the coral reef environment. Five reefs under varying degrees of human disturbance were investigated using the line intercept transect and point technique. Corallimorpharian growth and the composition of the substratum were quantified in different habitats within reefs: the inner and middle reef flat, the reef crest, and at the 2 and 4 m depths on the reef slope. Corallimorpharians occurred on all the reefs and 5 species were identified: Rhodactis rhodostoma, R. mussoides, Ricordea yuma, Actinodiscus unguja and A. nummiforme. R. rhodostoma was the dominant corallimorpharian at all sites. Within reefs, they had the highest densities in the shallow habitats. While R. rhodostoma occurred in all habitats, the other corallimorpharian species showed uneven distributions. Corallimorpharians ranked second, after scleractinian coral, in percent living cover. Results from this study suggested that corallimorpharians benefitted from disturbance compared with other sessile organisms. They preferred inhabiting areas with dead coral, rock and rubble whilst live coral was avoided. There was a positive relationship between percent cover of corallimorpharians and water turbidity and they dominated the more disturbed reefs, i.e. reefs that were affected by higher nutrient loads and fishing.     

Field method comparison between passive air samplers and continuous monitors for Vocs and NO2 in El Paso, Texas

This study evaluates the performance of Model 3300 Ogawa Passive Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) Samplers and 3M 3520 Organic Vapor Monitors (OVMs) by comparing integrated passive sampling concentrations to averaged hourly NO2 and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements at two sites in El Paso, TX. Sampling periods were three time intervals (3-day weekend, 4-day weekday, and 7-day weekly) for three consecutive weeks. OVM concentrations were corrected for ambient pressure to account for higher elevation. Precise results (< 5% relative standard deviation, RSD) were found for NO2 measurements from collocated Ogawa samplers. Reproducibility was lower from duplicate OVMs for BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene isomers) VOCs (> or = 77% RSD for 2-day samples) with better precision for longer sampling periods. Comparison of Ogawa NO2 samplers with chemiluminescence measurements averaged over the same time period suggested potential calibration problems with the chemiluminescence analyzer. For BTEX species, generally good agreement was obtained between OVMs and automated-gas chromatograph (auto-GC) measurements. The OVMs successfully tracked increasing levels of VOCs recorded by the auto-GCs. However, except for toluene, OVM BTEX measurements generally exceeded their continuous counterparts with a mean bias of 5-10%. Although interpretation of the study results was limited due to small sample sizes, diffusion barrier influences caused by shelters that housed OVMs and differences in sampling heights between OVMs and auto-GC inlet may explain the overestimation.     

Quantification of hourly variability in NO(x) emissions for baseload coal-fired power plants

The objectives of this paper are to (1) quantify variability in hourly utility oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) emission factors, activity factors, and total emissions; (2) investigate the autocorrelation structure and evaluate cyclic effects at short and long scales of the time series of total hourly emissions; (3) compare emissions for the ozone (O3) season versus the entire year to identify seasonal differences, if any; and (4) evaluate interannual variability. Continuous emissions monitoring data were analyzed for 1995 and 1998 for 32 units from nine baseload power plants in the Charlotte, NC, airshed. Unit emissions have a strong 24-hr cycle attributable primarily to the capacity factor. Typical ranges of the coefficient of variation for emissions at a given hour of the day were from 0.2 to 0.45. Little difference was found when comparing weekend emissions with the entire week or when comparing the O3 season with the entire year. There were substantial differences in the mean and standard deviation of emissions when comparing 1995 and 1998 data, indicative of the effect of retrofits of control technology during the intervening time. The wide range of variability and its autocorrelation should be accounted for when developing probabilistic utility emission inventories for analysis of near-term future episodes.