Potential Impact of Climate Change on Residential Energy Consumption in Dhaka City

This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on residential energy consumption in Dhaka city of Bangladesh. The monthly electricity consumption data for the period 2011–2014 and long-term climate variables namely monthly rainfall and temperature records (1961–2010) were used in the study. An ensemble of six global circulation models (GCMs) of coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) namely, BCCCSM1-1, CanESM2, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M under four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were used to project future changes in rainfall and temperature. The regression models describing the relationship between historical energy consumption and climate variables were developed to project future changes in energy consumptions. The results revealed that daily energy consumption in Dhaka city increases in the range of 6.46–11.97 and 2.37–6.25 MkWh at 95% level of confidence for every increase of temperature by 1 °C and daily average rainfall by 1 mm, respectively. This study concluded that daily total residential energy demand and peak demand in Dhaka city can increase up to 5.9–15.6 and 5.1–16.7%, respectively, by the end of this century under different climate change scenarios.     

Seasonal variation in long-range transported dust to a subtropical islet offshore northern Taiwan: Chemical composition and Sr isotopic evidence in rainwater

We investigated chemical and Sr isotopic composition of monthly rainwater collected on Peng-Chia-Yu (PCY) in northern Taiwan. Rainwater ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, Na/Cl, Ca/Cl, Sr/Cl, Sr/Ca, NH₄/Cl, NO₃/Cl, SO₄/Cl and Na/Sr, showed clear seasonal cycles, reflecting mixture of loess carbonates (high Ca/Sr and more radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) and seawater (low Ca/Sr and intermediate ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr). Model results showed that the former source contributes up to 45% during the winter monsoon period, but seawater is the dominant Sr source in rainwater (>50%) at other times. Two anomalously low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values occurred in July and August 1998, coinciding with the Merapi eruption in Indonesia. Air-mass backward trajectories and the geochemical and isotopic compositions in rainwater and Merapi lava (i.e. Ca/Sr = 100 and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.705400) suggested that the Merapi eruption delivered ash across the western equatorial Pacific to PCY. Aerosols leaching experiments were conducted to examine the impact of the 1998 eruption, demonstrating that only a minor terrestrial signature can be extracted by distilled water, implying rapid dispatch of volcanic gases or high-efficiency dissolution of ash related substance in acidic rains.     

Relationship between carbon dioxide/methane emissions and the water quality/sediment characteristics of Taiwan's main rivers

River and sediment have unique carbon dynamics and are important sources of the dominant greenhouse gases (GHG), carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). To understand the relationship between CO2/CH4 emissions and water quality/sediment characteristics, we have investigated critical parameters in the river water. Eight parameters of water quality (dissolved oxygen, oxidation-reduction potential [ORP], chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand [BOD5], suspended solid, nitrate [NO3-], NH4+, and bacteria) and four sediment characteristics (total organic carbon [TOC], total nitrogen [T-N], NO3-, and ammonium [NH4+]) were measured in two of the larger rivers in Taiwan, and relevant environmental conditions were recorded. The experimental results indicated that CO2 emissions from the river were mainly affected by BOD5 concentrations and the levels of bacteria. CH4 emissions, on the other hand, were greatly affected by the ORP in the river. The correlation between CO2 emissions and sediment characteristics was insignificant (R2 < 0.3). However, TOC and T-N in the sediment may lead to increases in CH4 emissions into the atmosphere. A deeper analysis of the relationship between the different parameters and GHG emissions by ANOVA and the multiple regression method revealed that CO2 emission (y) was significantly related to bacteria number (x1) and BOD concentration (X2). The regression equation takes the form y = 0.00032x1 + 3.18089x2 + 25.37304. Also, the regression relationship between CH4 emission (y) and ORP (x) in the river can be described as y = -0.825216x + 169.02257. The relationship between CH4 emission and sediment characteristics may be described as y = 5.073962x1(TOC) + 2.871245x2(T-N) - 12.3262. Extra sampling data were collected to examine the feasibility of the developed multiple regression equations. The experimental results suggest that the emissions of such GHGs as CO2 and CH4 from rivers can be predicted using the regression equations developed here. Moreover, the emissions may be reduced by manipulating the proper factors.     

Modified grey model for estimating traffic tunnel air quality

This study compared three forecasting models based on the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of their accuracy in forecasting air pollution in a traffic tunnel: the Grey model (GM), the combination model used four sample point and five sample point prediction with GM (1,1)(GM(1,1)^4 + 5), and the modified grey model (MGM). An MGM was combined using the four points of the original sequence using the original grey prediction GM (1,1) for short-term forecasting. The proposed method cannot only enhance the prediction accuracy of the original grey model, but can also solve the jump data forecasting problem something for which the original grey model is inappropriate. The MAPE was applied to the models, and the MGM found the proposed method to be simple and efficient. The MAPE of MGM, calculated over 3 h of forecasts, were as follows: 10.12 (Upwind), 10.07 (Middle) and 7.68 (Downwind) for CO; 10.79 (Upwind), 6.05 (Middle) and 5.98 (Downwind) for NO _x , and 11.67 (Upwind), 7.32 (Middle) and 4.56 (Downwind) for NMHC. The MGM model results reveal that the combined forecasts can significantly decrease the overall forecasting error. Results of this demonstrate that MGM can accurately forecast air pollution in the Kaohsiung Chung–Cheng Tunnel.     

Analysis of spatial and seasonal distributions of MODIS aerosol optical properties and ground-based measurements of mass concentrations in the Yellow Sea region in 2009

Satellite-retrieved data on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent (AE) using a moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) were used to analyze large-scale distributions of atmospheric aerosols in East Asia. AOD was relatively high in March (0.44?±?0.25) and low in September (0.24?±?0.21) in the East Asian region in 2009. Sandstorms originating from the deserts and dry areas in northern China and Mongolia were transported on a massive scale during the springtime, thus contributing to the high AOD in East Asia. However, whereas PM10 with diameters ≤10 μm was the highest in February at Anmyon, Cheongwon, and Ulleung, located leeward about halfway through the Korean Peninsula, AOD rose to its highest in May. The growth of hygroscopic aerosols attendant on increases in relative humidity prior to the Asian monsoon season contributed to a high AOD level in May. AE typically appears at high levels (1.30?±?0.37) in August due to anthropogenic aerosols originating from the industrial areas in eastern China, while AOD stays low in summer due to the removal process caused by rainfall. The linear correlation coefficients of the MODIS AOD and ground-based mass concentrations of PM10 at Anmyon, Cheongwon, and Ulleung were measured at 0.4~0.6. Four cases (6 days) of mineral dustfall from sandstorms and six cases (12 days) of anthropogenically polluted particles were observed in the central area of the Korean Peninsula in 2009. PM10 mass concentrations increased at both Anmyon and Cheongwon in the cases of mineral dustfall and anthropogenically polluted particles. Cases of dustfall from sandstorms and anthropogenic polluted particles, with increasing PM10 mass concentrations, showed higher AOD values in the Yellow Sea region.     

Environmental estrogenic effects and gonadal development in wild goldfish (Carassius auratus)

Serum vitellogenin (VTG) contents of wild goldfish (Carassius auratus) were investigated as a sensitive biomarker for artificial estrogenic compounds in aquatic environments. Goldfish was sampled from a pristine area, a river situated 5 km downstream from a sewage treatment works (STW), and also from the Young-San River in Korea. The female yolk precursor protein VTG was not detected when gonadosomatic index (GSI) was less than 0.85%, while VTG levels of >10 microg/ml were found in males whose GSI was less than 1.53%. In male goldfish sampled from STW and the Young-San River, the higher VTG corresponded to lower GSI. This study suggested a trend that gonad development was connected to VTG levels in both sexes, and the application of GSI and histological analysis provide an attractive possibility that it could be included in the panel of markers used for estrogenic activity investigation of aquatic environments.     

Distribution and pollution sources of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in reclaimed tidelands and tidelands of the western sea coast of South Korea

The wide-scale reclamation of tidal flats distributed throughout the western and southern coastal areas in Korea has been completed, in an effort to expand the available arable land. The present studies were conducted in order to characterize the concentrations and compositional patterns of selected PAHs, in order to obtain more information regarding environmental risk assessments for sustainable and environment-friendly agriculture in reclaimed tidelands and tidelands in South Korea. The PAH contents were low to moderate, relative to other urbanized regions of the world. Sigma PAHs ranged from 69.8 to 1,175.2 ng g(-1) in dry weight, with a mean value of 394.4 ng g(-1). Differences were observed in the Sigma PAHs concentrations between industrial complex areas and rural regions. The two dominant PAHs were identified as fluoranthene and pyrene. These compounds constituted 1.4 to 55.0% (mean, 33.4%) and 2.7 to 45.6% (mean, 22.0%) of the Sigma PAHs. Our correlation analysis revealed that the Sigma PAHs contents were associated significantly with the organic carbon content (R(2) = 0.86, P < 0.01) and the cation exchange capacity (CEC; R(2) = 0.89, P < 0.01) in the reclaimed tidelands and tidelands.     

Revised relative potency values for PCDDs, PCDFs, and non-ortho-substituted PCBs for the optimized H4IIE-luc in vitro bioassay

While the World Health Organization 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) equivalency factors are useful estimates of relative potencies of mixtures when conducting risk assessments, they are not useful when comparing the results of bioassays such as the H4IIE-luc to concentrations of TCDD equivalents calculated from instrumental analyses. Since there are thousands of dioxin-like compounds (DLCs), one use of screening assays is to determine if all of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) active DLCs in a mixture have been accounted for in instrumental analyses. For this purpose, bioassay-specific relative potency (ReP) values are needed. RePs of 21 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans, and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls that exhibit effects mediated through the AhR were determined by use of the H4IIE-luc assay. Different values of RePs are derived, depending on the statistical, curve-fitting methods used to derive them from the dose–response relationships. Here, we discuss the various methods for deriving RePs from in vitro data and their assumptions and effects on values of RePs. Full dose–response curves of 2,3,7,8-TCDD and other representative DLCs were used to estimate effective concentrations at multiple points (e.g., EC20-50-80), which were then used to estimate ReP of each DLC to 2,3,7,8-TCDD.     

COMPLEX I and II Model Performance Evaluation in Nevada and New Mexico

The COMPLEX I and COMPLEX II Gaussian dispersion models for complex terrain applications have been made available by EPA. Various terrain treatment options under IOPT(25) can be selected for a particular application, one of which [IOPT(25) = 1] is an algorithm similar to that of the VALLEY model. A model performance evaluation exercise involving three of the available options with both COMPLEX models was carried out using SF⁶ tracer measurements taken during worst-case stable impaction conditions in complex terrain at the Harry Allen Plant site in southern Nevada. The models did not reproduce observed concentrations on an event by event basis, as correlation coefficients for 1-h concentrations of 0-0.3 were exhibited. When observed and calculated cumulative frequency distributions for 1-h and 3-h concentrations were compared, a close correspondence between observations and concentrations calculated with COMPLEX I, IOPT(25) = 2 or 3 was noted; both options consistently overestimated observed concentrations. With IOPT(25) = 1, upper percentile (maximum) values in the calculated frequency distribution exceeded the corresponding IOPT(25) = 2 or 3 value by roughly a factor of 2, and observed values by 2.5-5. COMPLEX II typically produced maximum values 2-4 times as great as COMPLEX I for the same terrain treatment option. From these results it is concluded that: 1) the physically unrealistic sector-spread approach used in VALLEY and COMPLEX I under stable impaction conditions is a surrogate for wind direction variation, and 2) the doubling of the plume centerline concentration due to ground reflection under terrain impingement conditions that is included in IOPT(25) = 1 is inappropriate.

These findings were found to be consistent with an analysis of noncurrent observed and calculated SO₂ χ/Q frequency distributions for 1, 3, and 24 hours near the Four Corners Plant in New Mexico. The comparison involved a four-year calculated χ/Q data set and a two-year observed χ/Q data set at the worst-case high terrain impact location near the plant.     

Toxicity of the mosquito control insecticide phenothrin to three life stages of the grass shrimp (Palaemonetes pugio)

Phenothrin is a synthetic pyrethroid used as a contact insecticide in mosquito control programs. This study compared the toxicity of phenothrin to adult, larval and embryonic grass shrimp (Palaemonetes pugio) and examined oxidative stress responses in adult and larval grass shrimp. The adult 24-h LC50 was 0.341 μg/L (95 % confidence intervals 0.282-0.412) and the 96-h LC50 was 0.161 μg/L (95 % CI 0.128-0.203 μg/L). The larval 24-h LC50 was 0.50 μg/L (95 % CI 0.441-0.568) and the 96-h LC50 was 0.154 μg/L (95 % CI 0.139-0.170 μg/L). In the presence of sediment, the 24-h LC50 was 6.30 μg/L (95 % CI 5.00-7.44 μg/L) for adults and 0.771 μg/L (95 % CI 0.630-0.944) for larvae. The sublethal biomarkers glutathione and lipid peroxidase (LPx) were examined after 96-h phenothrin exposure at five concentrations, and there were no statistically significant differences in these levels in adults or larvae compared to controls. There was a significant downward trend in larval LPx levels. This research confirms that phenothrin is highly toxic to grass shrimp and suggests that both adult and larval grass shrimp are appropriate life stages for risk assessments.