Generating sustainable towns from Chinese villages: a system modeling approach

The great majority of China's developing towns will be extensions of already existing villages. With the prospect of hundreds of millions of Chinese farmers projected to leave their villages to become industrial workers in new and expanded towns within the next few years, new challenges will be faced. As expansion and modernization progress, this development moves from the traditional village model that operates not far from resource sustainability to increasingly unsustainable patterns of commerce, urban development, and modern life. With such an unprecedented mass migration and transformation, how can Chinese culture survive? What is to become of the existing million plus agricultural villages? How can these massively unsustainable new industrial towns survive? In the European Commission sponsored research program SUCCESS, researchers worked from the scale of the Chinese village to find viable answers to these questions.     

Public values for badgers,bovine TB reduction and management strategies

This paper applies an attribute-based stated choice experiment approach to estimate the value that society places on changes to the size of the badger population in England and Wales. The study was undertaken in the context of a rising incidence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle and the government's review of current bTB control policy. This review includes consideration of culling badgers to reduce bTB in cattle, since badgers are thought to be an important wildlife reservoir for the disease. The design of the CE involved four attributes (size of badger population, cattle slaughtered due to bTB, badger management strategy and household tax) at four levels with eight choice sets of two alternatives presented to respondents. Telephone interviews were undertaken with over 400 respondents, which elicited their attitudes and preferences concerning badgers, bTB in cattle and badger management strategies. The study estimated a willingness to pay of £0.10 per household per year per 100,000 badgers and £1.52 per household per year per 10,000 cattle slaughtered due to bTB which aggregated to £22 per badger and £3298 per bTB slaughtered animal for all households in England and Wales. Management strategy toward badgers had a very high valuation, highlighting the emotive issue of badger culling for respondents and the importance of government policy towards badgers.     

Persistence of culturable Escherichia coli fecal contaminants in dairy alpine grassland soils

Our knowledge of Escherichia coli (E. coli) ecology in the field is very limited in the case of dairy alpine grassland soils. Here, our objective was to monitor field survival of E. coli in cow pats and underlying soils in four different alpine pasture units, and to determine whether the soil could constitute an environmental reservoir. E. coli was enumerated by MPN using a selective medium. E. coli survived well in cow pats (10(7) to 10(8) cells g(-1) dry pat), but cow pats disappeared within about 2 mo. In each pasture unit, constant levels of E. coli (10(3) to 10(4) cells g(-1) dry soil) were recovered from all topsoil (0-5 cm) samples regardless of the sampling date, that is, under the snow cover, immediately after snow melting, or during the pasture season (during and after the decomposition of pats). In deeper soil layers below the root zone (5-25 cm), E. coli persistence varied according to soil type, with higher numbers recovered in poorly-drained soils (10(3) to 10(4) cells g(-1) dry soil) than in well-drained soils (< 10(2) cells g(-1) dry soil). A preliminary analysis of 38 partial uidA sequences of E. coli from pat and soils highlighted a cluster containing sequences only found in this work. Overall, this study raises the possibility that fecal E. coli could have formed a naturalized (sub)population, which is now part of the indigenous soil community of alpine pasture grasslands, the soil thus representing an environmental reservoir of E. coli.     

Dynamics of atmospheric nitrogen deposition in a temperate calcareous forest soil

In temperate forest ecosystems, soil acts as a major sink for atmospheric N deposition. A (15)N labeling experiment in a hardwood forest on calcareous fluvisol was performed to study the processes involved. Low amounts of ammonium ((15)NH(4)(+)) or nitrate ((15)NO(3)(-)) were added to small plots. Soil samples were taken after periods ranging from 1 h to 1 yr. After 1 d, the litter layer retained approximately 28% of the (15)NH(4)(+) tracer and 19% of (15)NO(3)(-). The major fraction of deposited N went through the litter layer to reach the soil within the first hours following the tracer application. During the first day, a decrease in extractable (15)N in the soil was observed ((15)NH(4)(+): 50 to 5%; (15)NO(3)(-): 60 to 12%). During the same time, the amount of microbial (15)N remained almost constant and the (15)N immobilized in the soil (i.e., total (15)N recovered in the bulk soil minus extractable (15)N minus microbial (15)N) also decreased. Such results can therefore be understood as a net loss of (15)N from the soil. Such N loss is probably explained by NO(3)(-) leaching, which is enhanced by the well-developed soil structure. We presume that the N immobilization mainly occurs as an incorporation of deposited N into the soil organic matter. One year after the (15)N addition, recovery rates were similar and approximately three-quarters of the deposited N was recovered in the soil. We conclude that the processes relevant for the fate of atmospherically deposited N take place rapidly and that N recycling within the microbes-plants-soil organic matter (SOM) system prevents further losses in the long term.     

Synergisms among Habitat Fragmentation, Livestock Grazing, and Biotic Invasions in Southwestern Australia

Abstract: The agricultural development of southern Australia over the past 200 years has resulted in extensively fragmented systems, often with only small, isolated remnants of native vegetation remaining. Grazing by sheep and cattle has affected both the remaining fragments and the surrounding matrix, and non-native plant and animal species have had dramatic effects on the native biota. Invasive plant species have the potential to significantly alter ecosystem composition and functioning, and invasive animals, particularly rabbits ( Oryctolagus cuniculatus ), foxes (    Vulpes vulpes ) and cats (    Felis catus ) effectively alter habitat and drive native fauna to local extinction. These different influences often interact. For instance, smaller fragments are often more prone to plant invasion and are more likely to have been grazed in the past. Invasion of plant species is often linked with livestock grazing or rabbit invasion, and other higher-order interactions are also apparent. Classical fragmentation studies that concentrate on parameters such as habitat area and isolation but ignore changes in habitat condition brought about by livestock and invasive species are unlikely to yield meaningful results. Similarly, management of fragmented ecosystems must account for not only the spatial characteristics of the remaining habitat but also the importance of other influences, particularly those that impinge on fragments from the surrounding matrix.     

Editorial: Special issue on composite sampling

Environmental and Ecological Statistics -     

Numerical Investigation of the Effects of Boundary-Layer Evolution on the Predictions of Ozone and the Efficacy of Emission Control Options in the Northeastern United States

This paper examines the effects of two different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes – Blackadar and Gayno–Seaman – on the predicted ozone (O₃) concentration fields using the MM5 (Version 3.3) meteorological model and the MODELS-3 photochemical model. The meteorological fields obtained from the two boundary-layer schemes have been used to drive the photochemical model to simulate O₃ concentrations in the northeastern United States for a three-day O₃ episodic period. In addition to large differences in the predicted O₃ levels at individual grid cells, the simulated daily maximum 1-h O₃ concentrations appear at different regions of the modeling domain in these simulations, due to the differences in the vertical exchange formulations in these two PBL schemes. Using process analysis, we compared the differences between the different simulations in terms of the relative importance of chemical and physical processes to O₃ formation and destruction over the diurnal cycle. Finally, examination of the photochemical model's response to reductions in emissions reveals that the choice of equally valid boundary-layer parameterizations can significantly influence the efficacy of emission control strategies.     

Numerical Investigation of Boundary-Layer Evolution and Nocturnal Low-Level Jets: Local versus Non-Local PBL Schemes

Numerical simulations of the evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and nocturnal low-level jets (LLJ) have been carried out using MM5 (version 3.3) with four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) for a high pollution episode in the northeastern United States during July 15–20, 1999. In this paper, we assess the impact of different parameterizations on the PBL evolution with two schemes: the Blackadar PBL, a hybrid local (stable regime) and non-local (convective regime) mixing scheme; and the Gayno–Seaman PBL, a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based eddy diffusion scheme. No FDDA was applied within the PBL to evaluate the ability of the two schemes to reproduce the PBL structure and its temporal variation. The restriction of the application of FDDA to the atmosphere above the PBL or the lowest 8 model levels, whichever is higher, has significantly improved the predicted strength and timing of the LLJ during the night. A systematic analysis of the PBL evolution has been performed for the primary meteorological fields (temperature, specific humidity, horizontal winds) and for the derived parameters such as the PBL height, virtual potential temperature, relative humidity, and cloud cover fraction. There are substantial differences between the PBL structures and evolutions simulated by these two different schemes. The model results were compared with independent observations (that were not used in FDDA) measured by aircraft, RASS and wind profiler, lidar, and tethered balloon platforms during the summer of 1999 as part of the NorthEast Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS). The observations tend to support the non-local mixing mechanism better than the layer-to-layer eddy diffusion in the convective PBL.     

Possible effects of persistent organochlorinated pollutants cocktail on thyroid hormone levels and pituitary-thyroid interrelations

In polluted district of Michalovce in East Slovakia (POLL) and two districts with background pollution (BCGR) 2046 adults (834 males and 1212 females aged 20-75 years) were examined. Serum levels of thyrotropin (TSH), free thyroxine (FT4), total triiodothyronine (TT3) and antithyroperoxidase antibodies (TPOab) were estimated by electrochemiluminiscent assay and also these of 15 polychlorinated biphenyl congeners (PCBs), p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDT, hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and hexachlorocyclohexane were measured by high resolution gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. In addition, also dioxins, furans, coplanar- and mono-ortho-PCBs as well as selected hydroxylated and methylsulphonated PCBs and DDE metabolites were measured by appropriate methods based on gas chromatography/mass spectrometry principle. In POLL significantly higher levels of all organochlorines were found than these in BCGR. When pooled values from both areas were stratified in terms of PCBs level and treated as continuous variables, positive association of PCBs with FT4 and TT3 was found, the latter two being also mutually associated. However, within the category of PCBs level <530 ng/glipid (n=232) the association between PCBs and both the FT4 (p<0.09) and TT3 (p<0.03) was negative and any association of these was not found within the category of PCBs level of 531-1000 ng/g (n=691). In contrast, in the category of 531-2000 ng/g (n=1307) positive association appeared between PCBs and FT4 (p<0.001) as well as TT3 (p<0.05). Highly significant association of PCBs with FT4 (p<0.001) was further found in the categories with PCBs level of 1001-101414 ng/g (n=1307) and 2001-101414 (n=1123), while significant association with TT3 was observed only in the category of 531-2000 ng/g. Such findings suggest possible threshold level in positive effect of PCBs on FT4 and TT3 level which seems to be individual and located somewhere around the PCBs level of 1000 ng/g. However, highly significant negative association of both FT4 and TT3 with TSH was found in each of above indicated PCBs categories. Considerable difference in FT4 and TT3 level between large groups of subjects with the same range of PCBs level was also found suggesting different individual susceptibility to the effects of organochlorines. Among a total of 26 cases from POLL with very low TSH level (<0.5 mU l(-1)) 13 cases showed very high level of PCBs, FT4 and TT3, thus supporting a hypothesis on a novel sporadic form of high PCBs related peripheral subclinical hyperthyroidism possibly resulting from the long-term disruption of equilibrium between bound and free thyroxine in plasma by high PCBs level followed by a striking inhibition of TSH release from the pituitary.