Assessing Development Pressure in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: An Evaluation of Two Land-Use Change Models

Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltimore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations.     

Revisiting the Chesapeake Bay Phytoplankton Index of Biotic Integrity

In 2006, a phytoplankton index of biotic integrity (PIBI) was published for Chesapeake Bay Lacouture et al. (Estuaries 29(4):598–616, 2006). The PIBI was developed from data collected during the first 18 years (1985–2002) of the Chesapeake Bay Program long-term phytoplankton and water quality monitoring programs. Combinations of up to nine phytoplankton metrics were selected to characterize bay habitat health according to plankton community condition in spring and summer seasons across four salinity zones. The independent data available at the time for index validation was not sufficient to test the PIBI because they lacked critical index parameters (pheophytin and dissolved organic carbon) and reference samples for some seasons and salinity zones. An additional 8 years of monitoring data (2003–2010) are now available to validate the original index, reassess index performance and re-examine long-term trends in PIBI conditions in the Bay. The PIBI remains sensitive to changes in nutrient and light conditions. Evaluation of the PIBI results over the entire 1985–2010 time period shows no discernible trends in the overall health of Bay habitat based on phytoplankton community conditions. This lack of overall PIBI trend appears to be a combined response to declines in water clarity and improvements in dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved phosphorus conditions in the bay.     

Mapping the public first‐aid training landscape: uptake,knowledge, confidence and willingness to deliver first aid in disasters/emergencies—a scoping review

The above article from Disasters, published online on 24 June 2019 in Wiley Online Library ( http://wileyonlinelibrary.com ) has been withdrawn by agreement among the authors, the Journal editors and John Wiley & Sons Inc. on behalf of ODI. The withdrawal has been agreed because this is a duplicate of an article that has been published in Disasters Volume 44 Issue 1.     

Population dynamics of Great Bittern (Botaurus stellaris) in the Netherlands: interaction effects of winter weather and habitat fragmentation

The increased variability in weather as a manifestation of climate change is expected to have negative impacts on population survival in wildlife species, because it will likely lead to increased variation in vital demographic rates (mortality and reproduction) in these populations. For the effective protection of biodiversity, adaptation measures are needed to compensate for the expected increase in weather variability and the negative interaction with habitat fragmentation. As a case study, we studied the fluctuations in Great Bittern numbers (Botaurus stellaris) from 28 monitoring plots scattered over the Netherlands to explore the interaction between the effect of weather and possible remediating effects of the landscape structure. Great Bittern habitat surrounding these plots differs with respect to area, quality, and degree of isolation of this habitat. In western Europe, Great Bitterns are found to be susceptible to continuous loss of suitable habitat due to vegetation succession and fragmentation. Moreover, year-to-year fluctuations in local Great Bittern populations can be caused by severe winter weather or other weather extremes. Our results show that severe winter weather has indeed a significant negative impact on Great Bittern population growth rates. Furthermore, we found that an increased carrying capacity and spatial cohesion (i.e. inverse of habitat fragmentation) contribute to an increase in mean growth rates over the years. As growth rates are higher in large, well-connected habitats, we argue that recovery from negative effects of, e.g. severe winters on Great Bittern population numbers is enhanced in these less-fragmented habitats. We derived generic adaptation measures for enhancing the recovery rate of populations of species in general: one should invest in more large, well-connected nature areas, not only to diminish the negative effects of habitat fragmentation on wildlife populations, but additionally to reduce the impacts of climatic variability.     

Dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCDD/Fs and PCBs) in food from farms close to foot and mouth disease animal pyres

To control the outbreak of foot and mouth disease, which occurred in the UK in early 2001, a large number of farm animals were slaughtered. Where it was not possible to render or landfill the carcasses, they were destroyed by burning on open pyres, with wood, coal and other materials. Uncontrolled combustion such as this is known to produce small quantities of dioxins and an investigation was made into whether, as a result of the burning, there was an elevation in the concentrations of these compounds in food produced in the areas close to the pyres. With few exceptions, concentrations of PCDD/Fs and PCBs were within the expected ranges as predicted by reference data. No accumulation over time was evident from a repeat milk sampling exercise. Where elevated concentrations of PCDD/Fs and PCBs were found in chickens and eggs, they were in samples not destined for the food chain. Elevated levels in some samples of milk from Dumfries and Galloway were not found in earlier or later samples and may have been found as a result of a temporary feeding regime. Elevated concentrations in lamb from Carmarthenshire were from very young animals which would not have entered the food chain. There was no evidence of any significant increase in dietary exposure to PCDD/Fs and PCBs as a result of the FMD pyres.     

Airborne measurements of peroxy radicals using the PERCA technique

The Peroxy Radical Chemical Amplifier (PERCA) technique is a proven method for measurement of ambient levels of peroxy radicals at ground level, but there are no published instances of the technique being used on an aerial platform. Here we describe deployment of a PERCA on the former UK Meteorological Office C-130 Hercules research aircraft. The instrument uses the established method of chemical amplification and conversion of peroxy radicals to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) by doping the sample air-flow matrix with CO and NO, subsequently measuring the NO2 yield with an improved 'Luminox' LMA-3 NO2 detector. NO2 from the amplification chemistry is distinguished from other sources of NO2 reaching the detector by periodically injecting CO approximately 1 s downstream of the NO injection point (termination mode). Chain lengths (CL's) for the amplification chemistry were typically approximately 260 (ground level) to approximately 200 (7,000 m). This variation with altitude is less than the variation associated with the 'age' of the PFA inlet material where the amplification chemistry occurs; CL's of approximately 200 with old tubing to approximately 300 with new clean tubing were typical (ground level values). The CL determinations were made in-flight using an onboard calibration unit based on the 254 nm photolysis of 7.5 to 10 parts per billion (by volume, ppbv) of CH3I in air, producing CH3O2 in a quantitative manner. The noise-equivalent detection limit for peroxy radicals (HO2 + RO2) is 2 parts per trillion (by volume, pptv) at 3,650 m when the background ambient ozone levels are stable, based on a 5 min average of five 30 s amplification cycles and five 30 s termination cycles. This detection limit is a function of several factors but is most seriously degraded when there is large variability in the ambient ozone concentration. This paper describes the instrument design, considers its performance and proposes design improvements. It concludes that the performance of an airborne PERCA in the free troposphere can be superior to that of ground-based instruments when similar sampling frequencies are compared.     

Reasons for women's non-uptake of amniocentesis

More than 10 years after a chromosomal anomaly screening programme was set up in France for pregnant women of advanced age, amniocentesis is still a controversial issue. The reasons why eligible women did not utilize the test and whether or not the existence of social welfare coverage determined women's access to prenatal diagnosis were studied. A group of 291 women aged ⩾35 years who recently gave birth to normal liveborns was interviewed by telephone. Among those aged 38 years and over, who automatically qualified for social security coverage, 75 per cent had undergone amniocentesis as opposed to 23 per cent in the 35 to 37-year-old non-covered age group who did not qualify for social security coverage. In both groups, access to amniocentesis was found to depend on the physicians', women's and male partners' attitudes towards prenatal diagnosis and abortion. Among the younger group, the uptake depended mainly on socio-economic factors. Institutional policies should ensure greater equality of access while allowing for individual preferences.     

Alkyl nitrate photochemistry during the tropospheric organic chemistry experiment

Alkyl nitrates (C₁–C₅) were measured at two sites (near urban and rural) in southeast England during the Tropospheric Organic Chemistry Experiment (TORCH). Methyl nitrate was the dominant species during both campaigns accounting for on average about one third of the total measured alkyl nitrates. High mixing ratios (>50 pptv) and variability of methyl nitrate were observed at the near urban site (TORCH1) that were not seen at the rural site (TORCH2) and which could not be explained by local photochemical production or direct emissions. The diurnal variation of methyl nitrate during TORCH1 showed a morning maximum that would be consistent with nighttime chemistry followed by transport to the surface by boundary layer dynamics. Similarly, elevated morning mixing ratios were also observed during TORCH2 although the magnitudes were much smaller. As a result, methyl nitrate could represent a tracer for nighttime chemistry seen at the ground the following day. At both campaigns, the dominant source of short chain alkyl nitrates and carbonyl precursor radicals (≤C₄) were from decomposition of larger compounds. The magnitude of the source increased with decreasing carbon number consistent with increasing total precursor abundance. Non-photochemical emissions of acetaldehyde and acetone could not be accounted for by automobile exhaust emissions alone and indicated that other direct sources are likely important in this environment.     

Abrupt biological response to hydrologic and land-use changes in Lake Apopka, Florida, USA

Lake Apopka is a shallow, hypereutrophic lake in north-central Florida that experienced an abrupt shift in primary producer community structure (PPCS) in 1947. The PPCS shift was so abrupt anecdotal accounts report that dominant, submersed aquatic vegetation was uprooted by a hurricane in 1947 and replaced by phytoplankton within weeks. Here we propose two hypotheses to explain the sudden shift to phytoplankton. First, hydrologic modification of the drainage basin in the late 1800s lowered the lake level ca. 1.0 m, allowing the ecosystem to accommodate moderate, anthropogenic nutrient enrichment through enhanced production in the macrophyte community. Second, additional hydrologic changes and large-scale agricultural development of floodplain wetlands began in 1942 and altered the pattern and scale of phosphorus loading to the lake that triggered the rapid shift to phytoplankton dominance in 1947. Historic land-use changes and paleolimnological data on biological responses to nutrient loading support these hypotheses.